Aluminum Market Daily  ·  Metals Desk铝早报  ·  金属研究

US-Iran strikes resume and crude is bid to $96.56. All twelve aluminium contracts close below their open while all twelve alumina contracts close above.美伊恢复相互打击,原油升至 96.56 美元;沪铝十二个合约全部收阴,氧化铝十二个合约全部收阳。

Monday, September 7, 2026
Morning Meeting晨会参考
Written the morning of Monday September 7 (Asia), BEFORE the SHFE day session opens. The last board data of any kind is the September 4 day session plus the September 4 night session, so EVERY price, average, percentile and open-interest figure in Section 1 is again the September 4 set and is labelled as carried — this is the third consecutive edition with no new Chinese close. ⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION: the COMPLETE September 4 SHFE exchange table for all twelve aluminium and all twelve alumina contracts, including the six far aluminium contracts (AL2703–AL2708) and the seven far alumina contracts the prior edition never carried, which permits four derivations that were previously impossible; four night-session settlement-basis changes across the alumina curve plus AL2703, all of which reconcile exactly against the day settlements; LIVE Monday macro quotes for crude and the dollar index, which RESOLVE the $7–8 crude caliber break the prior edition recorded as irreconcilable; the resumption of US–Iran strikes on Saturday September 5; a quantified September aluminium fluoride tender range; Rusal's Indonesian bauxite-alumina complex, announced at the Eastern Economic Forum; a fifth London price caliber; an independent third-party confirmation of the September 3 LME stock level; and the eleven-session London stock flow, computed here for the first time. ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE THIS EDITION: Westmetall's September 4 LME cash and 3-month settlement row, unpublished for a FOURTH consecutive edition, which triggers the EXECUTION of the demotion commitment written one edition ago; the September 4 LME stock figure; SMM's Monday September 7 social-inventory print, which had not published at the time of writing and which is this edition's single most important pending item; SMM's September 4 three-region daily ingot series; the SHFE Friday weekly warehouse and warrant print; SMM's absolute A00 quotation, regional transaction premia, shipment and purchasing sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco's five regional alumina listings (login-walled for a SEVENTH consecutive edition — the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test remains UNTESTABLE rather than failed); and the October fed funds strip, absent for a TENTH consecutive edition.
Steven Yuan
⚑⚑ THE US AND IRAN RESUMED STRIKING EACH OTHER ON SATURDAY CENTCOM struck THREE Iranian oil tankers — two 'permanently disabled', one 'completely destroyed' — after the IRGC fired two ballistic missiles at two US Navy warships. Neither US ship was hit and no servicemembers were injured. Strikes had been paused for roughly a month
⚑ AND CRUDE IS BID INTO THE MONDAY OPEN ON BOTH BENCHMARKS Brent $96.555, +$0.28 (+0.29%), month +10.07%, year +46.25%; WTI $91.88, +$0.40 (+0.44%), month +11.87%, year +47.58%. The source's own text reads 'crude rose above $92 on Monday, extending last week's gains as the US and Iran exchanged strikes'
⚑⚑ AND THAT SAME QUOTE RESOLVES THE CALIBER BREAK THE PRIOR EDITION COULD NOT The prior edition carried Brent $88.88 / WTI $83.11 against Brent $96.28 / WTI $91.31 and said no source reconciled them. TradingEconomics' own DEDICATED crude pages carry the $96 / $91 handles. The $88.88 / $83.11 pair is DISCARDED as an erroneous caliber, not listed in parallel
⚑⚑ THE SESSION'S CLEANEST FACT: 0-FOR-12 AGAINST 12-FOR-12 On September 4 ALL TWELVE aluminium contracts closed BELOW their opens (−100 to −220) and ALL TWELVE alumina contracts closed ABOVE theirs (+9 to +45). Twenty-four contracts, two perfect and opposite sweeps, one session. Newly computable only because the full exchange table arrived (derivation)
⚑ THE 27,720-LOT RESIDUAL ITEMISES TO THE LOT AL2703 11,970 + AL2704 8,736 + AL2705 4,028 + AL2706 1,895 + AL2707 804 + AL2708 287 = 27,720 EXACTLY, and 589,884 + 27,720 = 617,604 EXACTLY. The prior edition could name the residual but not break it down (derivation)
⚑⊘ THE ALUMINIUM CURVE IS BACKWARDATED −170 FRONT TO TAIL AL2609 24,305 down to AL2708 24,135 — 0.70% of the front, with the whole 2609→2702 stretch falling 145 and the 2703–2708 tail nearly flat at 24,135–24,185. The board prices near-term tightness and essentially NO forward tightness (derivation)
⚑⚑ WHILE ALUMINA RUNS A PERFECT MONOTONIC CONTANGO OF +164 AO2609 2,728 → AO2708 2,892 across ELEVEN consecutive increases with not one inversion: 2,728 / 2,757 / 2,766 / 2,780 / 2,795 / 2,807 / 2,831 / 2,836 / 2,854 / 2,862 / 2,885 / 2,892. That is 6.01% of the front against aluminium's −0.70% (derivation)
⚑ AND THE BOARD PRICES ALUMINA ABOVE THE HIGHER COST CALIBER ONLY FROM MARCH 2027 Cost caliber two is 2,826.21. The first contract on the curve closing above it is AO2703 at 2,831. Every contract from AO2609 through AO2702 closes below it. Forward cost inflation is priced as a 2027 event, not a 2026 one (derivation)
⊘ AND THE SMELTER MARGIN PROXY COMPRESSES 416 YUAN ALONG THE CURVE On an assumed 1.93 t alumina per t aluminium: AL2610 less alumina cost = 18,968.99; AL2708 less alumina cost = 18,553.44. Alumina input rises 260.55 while the metal price falls 155.00. The coefficient is an ASSUMPTION and the derivation is labelled as such
⊘ BUT THE FAR CURVE IS THIN, AND THIS BRIEF SAYS SO BEFORE IT LEANS ON IT AL2703–AL2708 traded 2,544 lots between them — 1.04% of the complex's 244,604. Every far-curve derivation above is computed on genuine exchange settlement data and on almost no liquidity. Both halves of that sentence are true
⚑ THE NIGHT SESSION DIVERGED THE SAME WAY, AND RECONCILES TO THE POINT Against September 4 settlements: AL main −55 to 24,320; AL2703 +35 to 24,260; AO2609 +15 to 2,730; AO2610 +12 to 2,760; AO2611 +12 to 2,770; AO2701 +20 to 2,798. All six reconcile EXACTLY against the published settlements. Aluminium down, all four alumina legs up (derivation)
⚑ AND AL2703's NIGHT GAIN IS THE THIRD INDEPENDENT ROLL CONFIRMATION AL2611 built 7,757 lots on the day; AL2702 posted the day's largest close-basis gain at +60; AL2703 posted +35 against settlement in the night while the front lost 55. Three different observations, one direction: migration along the curve, not departure from it (interpretation)
⊘⊘ WESTMETALL IS BLANK FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE EDITION The newest row is STILL September 3: cash $3,303.00, 3-month $3,303.50, stock 245,975 mt. No September 4 settlement, no new exact London average, no September 4 stock figure
⊘⊘ SO THE COMMITMENT IS EXECUTED: THE 1990 LOW IS DEMOTED TODAY The prior edition wrote in advance that if Monday brought no publication, 'LME stocks are the lowest since 1990' would be demoted from CURRENT FACT to HISTORICAL CITATION. Monday brought no publication. The demotion is executed. The datum is not withdrawn — it is reclassified
⊘ AND THE DAY-COUNT INSIDE THAT COMMITMENT WAS WRONG BY TWO It said London owed 'three days'. It owes ONE settled session — September 4. September 7 had not traded when the claim was made, and cannot be owed. This is the SECOND date-alignment error in two editions, after the 43,000 mt 'spread' that was three dates. Recorded, not buried
⊘⊘ AND THE FLOW BEHIND THE FLAGSHIP NUMBER IS NEARLY STATIC Computed here for the first time from Westmetall's own eleven intervals: August 18 246,925 → September 3 245,975 is −950 mt, −0.38%. SEVEN of the eleven sessions printed EXACTLY ZERO change. The only real moves are −500 (Sept 2) and −250 (Sept 3) (derivation)
⚑ AN INDEPENDENT CALIBER CONFIRMS THE LEVEL — AND ITS 7-DAY FIGURE RECONCILES EXACTLY A third-party vault feed reads 246.0K mt at September 3, 24h −0.10%, 7d −0.30%, 30d −4.1%, 'lowest in the 19-year record'. The 24h matches −250/246,225 = −0.1016% and the 7d matches August 28's 246,725 → 245,975 = −0.304%. It confirms the LEVEL; it supplies no new DATE
⊘ A FIFTH LONDON PRICE CALIBER APPEARS AND RECONCILES WITH NOTHING SMM's own quote page carries LME aluminium at $3,293.50, −$2.50 (−0.0758%), implying a prior of $3,296.00 — which matches neither Westmetall's $3,303.00 nor TradingEconomics' $3,292.50. London now carries FIVE September readings. All listed, none reconciled
⚑⊘ THE RATIO, ON THREE CALIBERS 24,290 ÷ $3,303.00 = 7.3539 (last exact settlement). ÷ $3,293.50 = 7.3751 (SMM). ÷ $3,292.50 = 7.3774 (TradingEconomics). And on the night's 24,320 ÷ $3,303.00 = 7.3630. The spread is caliber, not market (derivation)
⊘ NO NEW SHFE SESSION — EVERY PRICE IN SECTION 1 IS CARRIED FOR A THIRD EDITION AL2610 24,290, alumina AO2610 2,757, AD2610 23,545, all eighteen SHFE averages and all six percentiles are the September 4 values. Stated once, applies throughout. The Monday day session had not opened at the time of writing
⚑ CARRIED: STILL ABOVE ALL SIX AVERAGES BY 101.00 TO 713.33 MA5 24,189.00, MA10 23,996.50, MA20 23,981.75, MA30 23,859.50, MA40 23,693.38, MA60 23,576.67 — a fifth consecutive session above the whole band, all six rising, with the MA5 clearance at 101.00 still the only one within reach
⊘ THE MONDAY INVENTORY PRINT — THIS EDITION'S BIGGEST PENDING ITEM — HAD NOT PUBLISHED The prior edition's central claim (destocking re-accelerated to 1.55× the August pace) rests on ONE weekly observation and its first test is Monday's print. It was not retrievable at writing. 815,000 mt at September 3 is carried and the test is DEFERRED, not passed and not failed
⚑ THE COST SIDE GAINS A NUMBER IT PREVIOUSLY LACKED September aluminium fluoride tenders settled at RMB 11,500–12,000/mt. The prior edition could only record that benchmark enterprises had raised them; this edition can price the raise. It sits alongside prebaked anode at 5,730 yuan/mt spot
⊘ RUSAL WILL BUILD A BAUXITE-ALUMINA COMPLEX IN INDONESIA Announced by President Prabowo at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 3: Rusal enters 'on a large scale' to develop a refinery with local partners, described by the company as Pacific diversification. Long-dated, and bearish for the alumina cost floor
⚑⊘ WHICH SITS AWKWARDLY BESIDE THE SAME PRODUCER'S DOMESTIC LEDGER Rusal is simultaneously reported seeking Kremlin support with four bauxite and alumina plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of losses, and proposing to mothball 2.1 million mt of alumina at home. Expanding abroad while contracting at home is one company, two directions (interpretation)
⊘ AND A CONFLICTING EGA CALIBER SURFACES One retrieved caliber says Al Taweelah alumina was expected to reach 50% of capacity 'within days', against the 25% refill this brief carries. The snippet is undated. Listed, NOT reconciled, and NOT substituted for the carried figure
⚑ THE DOLLAR IS SOFTER INTO THE MONDAY OPEN DXY 99.087, −0.09%, month −0.72%, year +1.68% — against the September 4 close set of 99.13 / 99.157 / 99.27 / 99.3. A small move, and the only macro leg pointing the aluminium bulls' way without a caveat attached
⊘ THE FED CALIBER SET GAINS A SIXTH READING AND STILL DOES NOT CONVERGE A September 4 pre-payroll caliber reads 50.2%, down from 63.2% on Wednesday, post-Waller — consistent with the ~50.5% carried. Against 49.4%, 66% (Aug 31) and ~57–65% post-payrolls. The blackout is in force. ⊘ The October strip is missing for a TENTH edition
⊘ AND ONE RETRIEVED FED CALIBER IS THREE WEEKS OLD — SO IT IS LABELLED, NOT USED A Goldman Sachs note putting September at 30% and no hike through 2026 dates to AUGUST 17, before Jackson Hole and before payrolls. It is recorded as STALE and excluded from this edition's macro weighting rather than quietly folded in
⚑ CHINA'S DATA WEEK STARTS TODAY AND THE ALUMINIUM-RELEVANT PRINT IS TOMORROW Sept 7 FX reserves; Sept 8 trade balance and import/export y/y — the same day Canada's steel and aluminium counter-tariffs step from 25% to 50% with aluminium rod named; Sept 9 CPI (exp +0.9%) and PPI (exp +3.2%); Sept 10 credit, with TSF growth expected to DECELERATE to ~5% and new loans ~RMB 500 billion

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与本期性质

  • 本期写于 9月7日(周一)上午,早于沪市日盘开盘。任何盘面的最新数据仍然是 9月4日日盘加 9月4日夜盘,因此本节中的每一个价格、均线、分位与持仓数字,仍为 9月4日数值原样沿用——这是连续第三期没有新的中国收盘价。
  • ⚑ 本期的新增内容:9月4日上期所完整交易所表(铝十二个合约、氧化铝十二个合约全部),其中包含上期从未载入的六个远月铝合约(AL2703–AL2708)与七个远月氧化铝合约,由此得以完成四项此前无法完成的推算;氧化铝曲线四条腿加 AL2703 的夜盘结算基准涨跌,全部与日盘结算价精确对上;原油与美元指数的周一实时报价,并据此化解了上期记为「不可调和」的 7–8 美元原油口径断裂;9月5日(周六)美伊重启互击;9 月氟化铝招标价的具体区间;俄铝在印尼的铝土矿—氧化铝联合体(东方经济论坛宣布);第五条伦敦价格口径;9月3日 LME 库存水平的第三方独立确认;以及本期首次计算的伦敦库存十一个交易间隔的实际流量。
  • ⊘ 未取得:Westmetall 的 9月4日伦铝现货与三个月结算行,连续第四期未发布——由此触发上期事先写下的降格承诺的执行;9月4日 LME 库存;SMM 9月7日(周一)社会库存印记,写稿时尚未发布,是本期最重要的待定项;SMM 9月4日三地铝锭日度序列;上期所周五周度库存与仓单印记;SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分区域成交升贴水、出货与采购情绪指数、氧化铝指数与中铝五地报价(连续第七期需登录——氧化铝的产业确认一项仍为「无法检验」而非「未通过」);以及 10 月联邦基金利率条,连续第十期缺失。

⊘ 沪铝:无新交易日,价格全部沿用;⚑ 但合约明细本期首次完整

  • 沿用:AL2610(主力)开 24,475,高 24,510,低 24,270,收 24,290,结算 24,375,前结算 24,275;收盘对收盘 −80(−0.33%),较前结算 +15;成交 151,835 手(−33.9%),持仓 254,755 手(−2,092)。
  • ⚑⚑ 本期首次取得的六个远月合约(此前从未载入):AL2703 开 24,290、高 24,325、低 24,160、收 24,180、结算 24,225、成交 969、持仓 11,970;AL2704 开 24,325、高 24,325、低 24,165、收 24,185、结算 24,220、成交 942、持仓 8,736;AL2705 开 24,275、高 24,310、低 24,160、收 24,170、结算 24,255、成交 409、持仓 4,028;AL2706 开 24,300、高 24,305、低 24,135、收 24,160、结算 24,240、成交 126、持仓 1,895;AL2707 开 24,260、高 24,285、低 24,130、收 24,160、结算 24,205、成交 55、持仓 804;AL2708 开 24,275、高 24,300、低 24,130、收 24,135、结算 24,210、成交 43、持仓 287。
  • ⚑⚑ 上期只能命名、无法拆分的 27,720 手「余额」,本期逐笔闭合(此为推算):11,970 + 8,736 + 4,028 + 1,895 + 804 + 287 = **27,720,分毫不差;且 589,884 + 27,720 = 617,604,与交易所公布的品种合计持仓完全一致。**
  • ⚑⚑ 本期最干净的一条单日事实(此为推算):9月4日十二个铝合约全部收在各自开盘价之下——AL2609 −120、AL2610 −185、AL2611 −175、AL2612 −185、AL2701 −220、AL2702 −190、AL2703 −110、AL2704 −140、AL2705 −105、AL2706 −140、AL2707 −100、AL2708 −140。最大跌幅 AL2701 的 −220,最小 AL2707 的 −100。
  • ⚑ 并且其中三个合约开在自身最高价:AL2701(24,400 = 24,400)、AL2702(24,350 = 24,350)、AL2704(24,325 = 24,325)。也就是说 9月4日的回落不是主力单独的事件,而是全曲线自开盘起的一致回落(此为解读)。
  • ⚑⊘ 曲线形态(本期首次可计算,此为推算):铝盘由 AL2609 的 24,305 一路降至 AL2708 的 24,135,前后价差 −170,为最近月的 **0.70%;其中 2609→2702 段落差 145,而 2703–2708 段几近走平(24,135–24,185)。盘面给近月定了紧,给远月几乎没有定紧(此为解读)。**
  • 沿用:铝品种合计成交 244,604 手,合计持仓 617,604 手(+2,553)。

⊘ 均线与分位:全部为 9月4日数值,沿用

  • 沿用:MA5 24,189.00、MA10 23,996.50、MA20 23,981.75、MA30 23,859.50、MA40 23,693.38、MA60 23,576.67。收盘高于全部六条,分别高出 101.00、293.50、308.25、430.50、596.62、713.33 元,为连续第五个交易日站上全带;六条同时上行,MA60 连续第二日上行(+1.75)。
  • 沿用:MA5 守住幅度仅剩 101.00,快线是唯一处于射程内的一条;20 日收盘分位 89.7%,60 日 95.8%。
  • ⚑ 夜盘明细(本期新增两项,并全部与结算价核对无误,此为推算):以 9月4日结算价为基准——AL 主力 **−55 至 24,320(24,375 − 55 ✓);AL2703 +35 至 24,260(24,225 + 35 ✓);AO2609 +15 至 2,730(2,715 + 15 ✓);AO2610 +12 至 2,760(2,748 + 12 ✓);AO2611 +12 至 2,770(2,758 + 12 ✓);AO2701 +20 至 2,798(2,778 + 20 ✓)。六条全部精确闭合。**
  • ⚑ 夜盘的方向同样是分裂的:铝的近月对结算下跌 55,而四条氧化铝腿全部上涨 12 至 20;并且 AL2703 在夜盘对结算上涨 35——这是本简报现在握有的第三条独立的移仓证据(前两条为 AL2611 日盘增仓 7,757 手、AL2702 全板最大收盘涨幅 +60)(此为解读)。
  • 沿用:夜盘 AL2610 开 24,240、高 24,355、低 24,200、末价 24,320、均价 24,307,成交 52,304 手;AO2610 夜盘末价 2,760;AD2610 夜盘末价 23,555。

⊘⊘ 伦铝:连续第四期空白,承诺本期执行

  • ⊘ Westmetall 的最新一行仍然是 9月3日:现货结算 3,303.00 美元、三个月 3,303.50 美元、库存 245,975 吨。9月4日行截至本期写稿时仍未发布,为连续第四期。
  • ⊘⊘ **降格执行:上期事先写下——「若周一仍不发布,则本简报将把『LME 库存为 1990 年以来最低』由当期事实降格为历史引用」。周一仍未发布,本期执行该降格。该数据并未被撤回、也未被怀疑,而是被重新归类,并将保持这一归类,直至新的一行发布。**
  • ⊘ 同时必须记录:那条承诺里的天数本身是错的。它写作「伦敦已欠三天」,但伦敦实际欠的是一个已收盘的交易日——9月4日;9月7日在写下该句时尚未开市,一个尚未发生的交易日不可能「欠」。这是两期之内的第二次日期对齐错误(前一次是被当作三条口径的 43,000 吨「极差」,实为三个日期)。昨日刚以自身算术为据撤销了一次下调的简报,今日就必须同样记录同一类算术连续两次失手(此为解读)。
  • ⊘⊘ 更实质的一条,本期首次计算(此为推算):旗舰数字背后的流量近乎静止。以 Westmetall 自身公布的行计,8月18日 246,925 吨 → 9月3日 245,975 吨,十一个交易间隔累计仅 **−950 吨,即 −0.38%;其中七个间隔为精确的零变动,真正有量的只有 9月2日的 −500 与 9月3日的 −250。因此对这条本简报账上最硬的偏多数据,诚实的读法是:它既是一个真实的纪录,也是一个几乎不动的纪录,两句话必须写在同一句里。**
  • ⚑ 一条独立口径确认了水平(但没有提供新的日期):某第三方仓储数据源读 9月3日 246.0 千吨,24 小时 −0.10%、7 日 −0.30%、30 日 −4.1%,并称其为「十九年记录中的最低」。核对(此为推算):24 小时的 −250/246,225 = −0.1016% ✓;7 日以 8月28日的 246,725 → 245,975 计 = −0.304% ✓。两条均精确对上。
  • ⊘ 第五条伦敦口径,本期新增:SMM 自身报价页读 LME 铝 **3,293.50 美元(−2.50,−0.0758%),隐含前值 3,296.00 美元——与 Westmetall 的 3,303.00 和 TradingEconomics 的 3,292.50 均不吻合。伦敦本期共有五条九月读数(3,280.60 / 3,292.50 / 3,293.50 / 3,303.00 / 3,317.50),全部并列,不作调和。**
  • ⚑⊘ 沪伦比价,三条并列(此为推算):24,290 ÷ 3,303.00 = **7.3539(最后一组精确结算);÷ 3,293.50 = 7.3751(SMM);÷ 3,292.50 = 7.3774(TradingEconomics)。另以夜盘末价计:24,320 ÷ 3,303.00 = 7.3630。差异来源于口径,而非市场。**

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⊘ 现货价格:无新交易日,9月4日一组连续第三期沿用

  • 沿用:上海现货 24,360(+20,区间 24,340–24,380);长江 24,360(+20);中原 24,360(+20);南海(佛山)24,810(−40,区间 24,760–24,860);广东南储 24,520(−30,区间 24,490–24,550);中铝华东 24,360(+10)、华南 24,520(−30)、西南 24,370(持平)、华中 24,210(持平)。
  • 沿用:基差 **+70 升水(现货 24,360 对 AL2610 收盘 24,290),为 8月13日以来第一次现货升水,且是在盘面下跌 80 元的一天里完成的。该升水目前仍只有一个交易日的寿命,周一是它的第一次续验。**
  • 沿用:三条华南价差连续第二日收窄(南海−上海 450、南储−上海 160、中铝华南−华东 160)。
  • ⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与分区域成交升贴水连续第七期需登录,未取得。

⚑⚑ 氧化铝:本期取得完整曲线,而它与铝盘的形状正好相反

  • ⚑⚑ 9月4日氧化铝完整收盘曲线(本期首次载入,十一个间隔全部为正、无一处倒挂):AO2609 2,728 / AO2610 2,757 / AO2611 2,766 / AO2612 2,780 / AO2701 2,795 / AO2702 2,807 / AO2703 2,831 / AO2704 2,836 / AO2705 2,854 / AO2706 2,862 / AO2707 2,885 / AO2708 2,892。
  • ⚑⚑ 前后价差 **+164,为最近月的 6.01%——对照同一天铝盘的 −170(−0.70%)。两个盘面,同一交易日,形状完全相反:铝是 backwardation,氧化铝是完美单调的 contango(此为推算)。**
  • ⚑⚑ 并且十二个氧化铝合约全部收在各自开盘价之上:AO2609 +28、AO2610 +19、AO2611 +28、AO2612 +28、AO2701 +45、AO2702 +25、AO2703 +21、AO2704 +19、AO2705 +20、AO2706 +9、AO2707 +21、AO2708 +39。与铝盘的十二比零合起来,是二十四个合约、一边零比十二、另一边十二比零(此为推算)。
  • ⚑ 结算价:2,715 / 2,748 / 2,758 / 2,763 / 2,778 / 2,802 / 2,826 / 2,841 / 2,852 / 2,857 / 2,870 / 2,881;持仓:4,695 / 113,727 / 99,231 / 58,216 / 150,947 / 17,074 / 1,067 / 300 / 2,172 / 87 / 201 / 110,合计 **447,827 手,与公布数精确一致;品种合计成交 418,622 手。AO2701 的 150,947 手是全板最大的一本持仓。**
  • ⚑⊘ 一条本期首次可作的推算:成本口径二为 2,826.21,而曲线上第一个收在其之上的合约是 AO2703(2,831),即六个月之后;AO2609 至 AO2702 全部收在其之下。也就是说,盘面把氧化铝的成本抬升定价成2027 年的事,而不是 2026 年的事(此为推算)。
  • ⊘ 再进一步(此为推算,并明确标注其系数为假设):以每吨电解铝耗氧化铝 **1.93 吨计,AL2610 24,290 − 1.93 × 2,757 = 18,968.99;AL2708 24,135 − 1.93 × 2,892 = 18,553.44。沿曲线走出去,氧化铝投入成本上升 260.55 元而金属价格下降 155.00 元,粗口径毛利代理值压缩 415.55 元/吨。系数是假设,结论随系数变动。**
  • ⊘ 必须先说明再使用:AL2703–AL2708 六个合约合计成交仅 **2,544 手,占品种合计 244,604 手的 1.04%。上述所有远月推算,既建立在真实的交易所结算数据之上,也建立在几乎没有流动性之上。两句话都成立。**
  • 沿用:AO2610 收 2,757、结算 2,748、成交 219,656 手(+49.0%)、持仓 113,727 手(−14,117,连续第六次下降)。

⚑⊘ 成本与合金

  • ⚑ 本期新增(偏多,成本端):9 月氟化铝招标价落地区间为 11,500–12,000 元/吨。上期只能记录「标杆企业上调」,本期可以给出价格。与已在账上的 9 月预焙阳极 5,730 元/吨现货、5,745 元承兑构成同向的电解成本抬升。
  • ⊘ ADC12 四条口径仍不一致,全部并列:23,900(沿用)、SMM 23,950、长江现货铝合金 24,000、长江综合华东 23,615、佛山主流 23,500–23,800;A356.2 报 24,400。沿用:AD2610 收 23,545(−90),仍站上全部六条均线;AD−AL 日盘价差 745。

三 · 库存

⊘ 本期没有新的国内印记,而这正是本期最重要的空缺

  • ⊘⊘ **SMM 9月7日(周一)社会库存印记截至写稿时尚未发布。 上期的核心论断——「去库在 9 月第一周重新加速至 8 月周均的 1.55 倍」——建立在一个周度观测之上,而周一的周初印记正是它的第一次续验。该检验本期被推迟,既未通过、也未失败。本简报不把数据的缺席读作任何一个方向。**
  • 沿用:9月3日(周四)国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存 **815,000 吨,较周一 −22,000 吨,较上周四 −37,000 吨;链条 8月27日 852,000 → 8月31日 837,000 → 9月3日 815,000,三条恒等式全部零误差闭合。**
  • 沿用(速度,此为推算):37,000 吨/周 = 8 月周均约 23,935 吨的 **1.55 倍、7 月周均约 38,387 吨的 96%;自 7 月初 113 万吨阶段高点累计去库 315,000 吨。**
  • 沿用(日度):三地 9月1日 659,500 → 9月2日 651,500(−8,000)→ 9月3日 641,000(−10,500);广东 143,000、无锡 300,000、巩义 198,000;覆盖度 641,000 ÷ 815,000 = **78.7%。⊘ 9月4日的日度印记本期未取得。**
  • 沿用:两地铝棒 9月3日 89,000 吨(持平);全国主流消费地铝棒 140,500 吨(8月31日);铸造铝合金 28,100 吨。
  • 沿用:SMM 8月27日分区域——佛山 153,000(五周 −66,000,升水 220 元/吨)、无锡 326,000、巩义 209,000(五周 −35,000);周度出库量 135,400 吨(+12,200),近四年同期高位。
  • ⊘ 存留分歧未变:钢联 809,000 吨(8月31日)对 SMM 837,000 吨(同日),相差 28,000 吨,其中约 107,000 吨为权属不清货源。
  • ⊘⊘ **LME 库存,本期降格:245,975 吨(9月3日),9月4日行未发布。⚑ 本期首次计算的流量:8月18日 246,925 → 9月3日 245,975,十一个间隔合计 −950 吨(−0.38%),其中七个间隔为零。**
  • 沿用:保税区 116,000 吨(9月3日,上海 89,000 + 广东 27,000,周环比持平);氧化铝全国库存 727 万吨(9月3日,+8,000 吨);上期所周度 391,498 吨、注册仓单 245,510 吨(−28,691),第三方口径称为连续第十一周下降;上期所氧化铝周度 323,736 吨(−38,827)。⊘ 上期所周五周度印记本期仍未取得。

解读

  • ⚑ 在没有新印记的一期里,库存栏对铝价的作用只能记作维持而非新增:815,000 吨与 78.7% 覆盖度的日度序列都仍然指向支撑,但支撑的强度在本期无法被刷新(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 与之相反,LME 一侧本期是减弱的:不是因为库存回升,而是因为(一)最新印记停在 9月3日、(二)十一个间隔仅 −950 吨的实际流量说明这条纪录近乎静止。一个「1990 年以来最低」但三周几乎不动的库存,其偏多含义应当被折价(此为解读)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑⚑ 周末发生的唯一一件大事:美伊重启互击

  • ⚑⚑ **9月5日(周六):美国中央司令部(CENTCOM)打击了三艘伊朗油轮——两艘被「永久失能」、一艘被「完全摧毁」。起因是伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)向两艘在该海域巡逻的美国海军军舰发射了两枚弹道导弹;两艘美舰均未被击中,亦无人员受伤。美伊互击在中断约一个月后重启。**
  • ⚑ 原油带着买盘进入周一(实时口径):布伦特 96.555 美元(+0.28,+0.29%;月度 +10.07%,年度 +46.25%),源站正文另读「9月7日升至 96.61 美元、+0.34%」;WTI 91.88 美元(+0.40,+0.44%;月度 +11.87%,年度 +47.58%)。源站正文:「周一原油升破 92 美元,延续上周涨势,因美伊互击。」
  • ⚑⚑ 并且这同一条报价化解了上期的口径断裂:上期并列载入了布伦特 88.88 / WTI 83.11 与布伦特 96.28 / WTI 91.31 两组,相差 7–8 美元/桶,并明确记录「无来源对此作出调和」。TradingEconomics **自身的原油专页给出的是 96 / 91 的价位。因此本期弃用 88.88 / 83.11 一组,不再并列(此为解读)。**
  • ⚑⊘ 对铝的方向,本简报明确记为两面(此为解读):(一)偏多——能源上行抬高电解成本底,并使海湾地区自 2月28日以来累计约 **200 万吨/年原铝产能中断继续处于「未收敛」而非「已收敛」状态;(二)偏空——由约占全球石油海运五分之一的海峡航运风险驱动的油价上行,同时是一次风险规避冲击,而本简报 7 月与 8 月的自有记录显示,这类冲击多次未能转化为更高的铝价(2026年8月4日一期即以「铝与原油脱钩」记录过一次)。本期不对该项作净加权。**

⊘ 美元、联储与其余

  • ⚑ 美元指数周一实时** 99.087(−0.09%;月度 −0.72%,年度 +1.68%),对照 9月4日收盘的四条口径 99.13 / 99.157 / 99.27 / 99.3。小幅走软,是本期宏观栏中唯一一条不带附加条件地指向铝价偏多的腿。**
  • 沿用:美国 8 月非农 162,000 人对预期 53,000 人,失业率 4.1%,7 月由 −23,000 重述为 +21,000、6 月上修至 31,000;平均时薪环比 +0.3% 至 37.75 美元、同比仅 +3.1%(本周期最软)。
  • ⊘ 联储定价本期新增第六条口径,仍不收敛:一条 9月4日(非农公布前)读 9 月加息 **50.2%,并称周三为 63.2%,系 Waller 讲话后的回落——这与本简报沿用的「约 50.5%」一致;对照另外三条:49.4%(称一周前 57%)、66%(8月31日)、非农后约 57%–65%。四条并列,不作调和。**
  • ⊘ 需要标注一条过期口径:检索中出现的一条高盛读数(9 月 30%、2026 年内不加息、首次降息推至 2027 年)日期为 **8月17日——早于杰克逊霍尔、也早于非农。本期将其记为已过期,排除在宏观加权之外,而不是悄悄并入(此为解读)。**
  • ⊘ 沿用:联储噤声期已于 9月5日起生效,本周无联储官员发言。⊘ 10 月联邦基金利率条连续第十期缺失。
  • ⚑ 中国数据周从今天开始:9月7日 8 月外汇储备;9月8日 8 月贸易差额与进出口同比——与加拿大钢铝反制关税由 25% 升至 50%(铝棒被点名)同日;9月9日 8 月 CPI(预期同比 +0.9%)与 PPI(预期 +3.2%);9月10日 8 月 M0/M1/M2、社融与新增人民币贷款(新增贷款预期约 5,000 亿元,社融增速预期减速至约 5%)。

解读

  • ⚑ 宏观栏本期的分辨率上升了一格:原油的 7–8 美元断裂被源站自身的专页化解,美元有了实时读数。上期记录的「本期宏观分辨率下降」在本期被部分收回(此为解读)。
  • ⊘ 但方向并未因此变得清晰:美元小幅走软偏多、原油上行两面、联储定价四条口径并列、噤声期内无新指引。本简报维持宏观栏「中性偏空」的定性不变,唯一的修订是把地缘一项由「已收敛」改回「未收敛」(此为解读)。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 国内供给与需求

  • 沿用:中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对照 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性;RatingDog 8 月制造业 PMI 51.5(六个月新高),国家统计局 8 月 49.8,铝加工行业 8 月综合 PMI 48.7%。
  • 沿用:周度开工率(截至 8月27日)——型材 50.6%(−0.2)、板带 69.2%(持平)、铝箔 70.7%(+0.3)、线缆 63.0%(+0.6)。本期无更新。
  • 沿用:周度出库量 135,400 吨(+12,200,近四年同期高位),仍是本简报账上唯一一条数量性需求证据。
  • ⊘ 沿用(反向):铝棒过剩持续、加工费维持低位、绝对库存仍高;两地铝棒日度 9月3日 89,000 吨持平,未跟随铝锭去库——铝锭去库的一部分是仓库间转移,而非全部进入终端消化。
  • ⊘ 贸易政策:泰国对中国铝型材的新出口商复审(临时保证金 21.94%,终裁区间 5.12%–21.94%、期限五年);加拿大关税翻倍于明日(9月8日)生效,铝棒被点名,与中国 8 月出口数据同日。两条都落在本简报账上最弱的出口需求栏。

⚑⊘ 海外与成本端:本期一多一空

  • ⚑ 偏多(成本):9 月氟化铝招标价 **11,500–12,000 元/吨落地;沿用 9 月预焙阳极 5,730 元/吨现货;沿用中国铝业上半年冶金级氧化铝产量 738 万吨、同比 −14.19%。**
  • ⊘ 偏空(供给,本期新增):俄铝将在印尼建设铝土矿—氧化铝联合体。印尼总统普拉博沃于 9月3日符拉迪沃斯托克东方经济论坛宣布,俄铝将「大规模」进入印尼、与本地伙伴共同开发精炼产能;公司方面称该项目是其在太平洋地区多元化战略的延续。⊘ 远期项目,对氧化铝成本底偏空。
  • ⚑⊘ 需要并读的一点(此为解读):同一家生产商,一边被报道正为四家面临封存风险、合计年亏约 **8 亿美元的铝土矿与氧化铝厂寻求克里姆林宫援助、并已提出 210 万吨氧化铝封存计划,一边在印尼宣布新建。对外扩张与对内收缩是同一家公司的两个方向,而目前只有对外的一半有具名合作方。**
  • ⊘ 新增的一条不调和口径:某检索来源称 EGA 的 Al Taweelah 氧化铝预计将在「数日内」恢复至产能的 **50%,与本简报沿用的已由 18% 回填至 25% 不一致;该片段未标注日期,本期并列载入、不作调和、不作替换。**
  • 转载(远期供给账本,本期无更新):几内亚出口上限目标约 1.5 亿吨/年(−25%);力拓 Yarwun 自 10 月减 120 万吨/年;美铝 2026 年指引下调 20–30 万吨;Alunorte 已恢复满产;卡塔尔铝业约 60% 名义产能;Alba 一至三号系列停产(占 19%);亚洲上半年氧化铝出口 705 万吨(+27.36%),下半年 800 万吨可及;中国氧化铝现货在库存回升下走低;几内亚矿商抢运推高到港;运行产能 9,590 万吨/年对约 9,900 万吨/年,两条并列。
  • 转载(偏空):日本 2026 年四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨,环比 −18% 至 −22%,本期无更新亦无反驳。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⊘ 无新交易日,9月4日成交与情绪连续第三期沿用

  • 沿用 · 华东:上海现货 24,360(+20),基差 +70 升水;在盘面下跌 80 元的同时持货商上调报价 20 元且成交维持。出货意愿偏强(惜售),采购意愿偏强。
  • 沿用 · 华南:南海(佛山)24,810(−40)、南储 24,520(−30)、中铝华南 24,520(−30),三条口径绝对值下跌;出货意愿偏强而挺价意愿偏弱。
  • 沿用 · 华中:中铝华中 24,210(持平),连续第二日站上 24,000;西南 24,370(持平)。
  • ⚑ 本期可补充的一条结构性印证(此为解读):9月4日夜盘的分裂——铝的近月对结算下跌 55、而远月 AL2703 上涨 35——与现货端「南海高位回落、上海升水成立」的组合方向一致:近月定价的是眼下的实物紧,而不是一条向上的远期曲线。铝盘 −170 的 backwardation 与这一读法互为佐证。
  • ⊘ SMM 的出货/采购情绪指数连续第七期未取得;上述判断依据价格、涨跌幅、基差、价差与库存行为推断,非 SMM 指数。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 偏多因素

  • ⚑⚑ 美伊互击于 9月5日重启,美军打击三艘伊朗油轮;海湾自 2月28日以来约 200 万吨/年原铝产能中断由「已收敛」改回「未收敛」。
  • ⚑ 布伦特 96.56 美元(+0.29%)、WTI 91.88 美元(+0.44%),月度 +10.07% / +11.87%,抬高电解成本底。
  • ⚑ 原油 7–8 美元口径断裂本期化解,宏观栏分辨率回升一格。
  • ⚑ 美元指数周一 99.087(−0.09%),月度 −0.72%。
  • ⚑⚑ 氧化铝十二个合约全部收在开盘价之上(+9 至 +45),曲线为完美单调 contango、前后 +164(6.01%),无一处倒挂。
  • ⚑ 夜盘四条氧化铝腿全部对结算上涨(+12 至 +20),AO2701 的 +20 为两个盘面中最大的夜盘涨幅。
  • ⚑ AO2701 持仓 150,947 手为全板最大一本,并已超过主力的 113,727 手——迁移而非离场,本期得到第二次确认。
  • ⚑ 氧化铝全曲线全部高于成本口径一(2,718)。
  • ⚑ AL2703 夜盘对结算 +35,而近月 −55——移仓证据的第三条(前两条:AL2611 增仓 7,757 手、AL2702 收盘 +60 为全板最大)。
  • ⚑ 9 月氟化铝招标价 11,500–12,000 元/吨落地,电解成本继续抬升。
  • ⚑ 沿用:9月3日社会库存 815,000 吨,较上周四 −37,000 吨,为 8 月周均的 1.55 倍;累计去库 315,000 吨。
  • ⚑ 沿用:三地日度 641,000 吨、日度降幅由 −8,000 扩至 −10,500;覆盖度 78.7%。
  • ⚑ 沿用:周度出库量 135,400 吨(+12,200),近四年同期高位。
  • ⚑ 沿用:佛山五周去库 66,000 吨、升水 220 元/吨;巩义五周去库 35,000 吨。
  • ⚑ 沿用:基差 +70 升水,为 8月13日以来第一次,且在盘面下跌的一天里完成。
  • ⚑ 沿用:收盘高于全部六条均线(101.00–713.33 元),连续第五个交易日;六条同时上行。
  • ⚑ 沿用:铝品种合计持仓 +2,553 手,为移仓而非离场。
  • ⚑ 沿用:上期所周度库存被第三方称为连续第十一周下降;保税区周环比持平,外部资源未回流。
  • ⚑ 沿用:中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对 4,500 万吨天花板无国内供给弹性;中国铝业上半年氧化铝产量同比 −14.19%。
  • ⚑ 沿用:美国 8 月平均时薪同比仅 +3.1%,为本周期最软。
  • ⚑ 沿用:几内亚铝土矿现货 72–73 美元/干吨,海运费近 40 美元。
  • ⚑ 条件性:俄铝四厂面临封存、年亏约 8 亿美元——若执行,对氧化铝成本底偏多。
  • ⚑ SMM 预计 9 月上半月去库延续,并预期三地价差收敛。

⊘ 偏空因素

  • ⊘⊘ Westmetall 连续第四期空白;9月4日结算行与库存行均未发布。
  • ⊘⊘ 「LME 库存为 1990 年以来最低」本期由当期事实降格为历史引用(承诺执行)。
  • ⊘⊘ 该旗舰数字背后的流量近乎静止:8月18日 246,925 → 9月3日 245,975,十一个间隔仅 −950 吨(−0.38%),其中七个为零。
  • ⊘ 本简报承诺中的天数多算了两天,为两期之内第二次日期对齐错误——方法可靠性本期自我记为下降。
  • ⊘⊘ 十二个铝合约全部收在各自开盘价之下(−100 至 −220),其中三个开在自身最高价:9月4日的回落是全曲线一致的,而非主力单独事件。
  • ⊘⊘ 铝盘前后价差 **−170(−0.70%) 为 backwardation,2703–2708 段几近走平——盘面几乎没有给远月定紧。**
  • ⊘ 以 1.93 吨系数计,毛利代理值沿曲线压缩 415.55 元/吨(氧化铝投入 +260.55,金属价 −155.00)。
  • ⊘ 氧化铝曲线直到 AO2703(2,831)才首次收在成本口径二(2,826.21)之上——成本抬升被定价为 2027 年而非 2026 年的事。
  • ⊘ 远月流动性极薄:AL2703–2708 合计成交 2,544 手,仅占品种合计的 1.04%。
  • ⊘ 新增(供给):俄铝将在印尼建设铝土矿—氧化铝联合体(普拉博沃,9月3日东方经济论坛)。
  • ⊘ 新增(不调和):EGA Al Taweelah 的 50% 口径对本简报沿用的 25%,片段未标日期。
  • ⊘ 本期无新的国内库存印记;9月7日周一印记未发布,上期加速论断的第一次续验被推迟。
  • ⊘ 9月4日三地日度印记亦未取得;上期所周五周度与仓单印记仍未取得。
  • ⊘ 伦敦本期共有五条互不吻合的九月读数(3,280.60 / 3,292.50 / 3,293.50 / 3,303.00 / 3,317.50);比价三条并列(7.3539 / 7.3751 / 7.3774)。
  • ⊘ 沿用:收盘 24,290 正好落回 8月12日收盘价;24,490 与 24,510 已确认为压力;MA5 守住幅度仅剩 101.00;20 日与 60 日收盘分位退至 89.7% / 95.8%。
  • ⊘ 沿用:成交 151,835 手较前一日六十日纪录 −33.9%,承接量能未续。
  • ⊘ 沿用:氧化铝主力持仓 −14,117 手为连续第六次下降,自 8月27日累计 −167,223 手(−59.5%)。
  • ⊘ 沿用:铝棒过剩持续、加工费低位、绝对库存高;两地铝棒 9月3日持平,未跟随铝锭去库。
  • ⊘ 明日(9月8日)加拿大关税由 25% 升至 50%,铝棒被点名;泰国新出口商复审 21.94%。两条同落在最弱的出口需求栏。
  • ⊘ 存留分歧:钢联 809,000 吨对 SMM 837,000 吨(同为 8月31日),差 28,000 吨。
  • ⊘ 联储定价四条口径并列且不收敛;10 月联邦基金利率条连续第十期缺失;噤声期内无新指引。
  • ⊘ 原油上行同时是风险规避冲击,本简报 7–8 月的自有记录显示其多次未能转化为更高的铝价。
  • ⊘ 沿用:日本四季度升水 310–325 美元/吨(环比 −18% 至 −22%),仍是账上最硬的偏空实物数据。
  • ⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、分区域升贴水、情绪指数、氧化铝指数与中铝五地报价连续第七期需登录。

八 · 一句话观点

本期仍然没有中国盘面的新价格——这是连续第三期——因此所有价位均为 9月4日沿用,而周末真正发生变化的两件事都不在价格栏内:其一是地缘,美伊在中断约一个月后于 9月5日重启互击,美军中央司令部打击三艘伊朗油轮、两艘永久失能一艘完全摧毁,起因是革命卫队向两艘美舰发射两枚弹道导弹而两舰均未被击中,原油带着买盘进入周一,布伦特 96.56 美元、WTI 91.88 美元,月度分别 +10.07% 与 +11.87%,对铝而言这是明确的两面——能源上行抬高电解成本底,并把海湾自 2月28日以来约 200 万吨/年的原铝中断由「已收敛」改回「未收敛」,这一半偏多;而由占全球石油海运约五分之一的海峡航运风险驱动的油价上行同时是一次风险规避冲击,本简报 7 月与 8 月的自有记录显示这类冲击多次未能转化为更高的铝价,这一半偏空,因此本期对该项不作净加权,只把它明确记为一个重新打开的尾部;这条报价顺带化解了上期记为不可调和的 7–8 美元原油断裂——源站自身的原油专页给出的是 96 与 91 的价位,88.88 与 83.11 一组本期弃用,宏观分辨率因此回升一格,但方向仍不清晰,美元 99.087 小幅走软是唯一不带条件地偏多的一腿,联储定价四条口径并列不收敛且噤声期内不会有新指引,一条检索到的高盛读数则因日期为 8月17日而被明确记为过期并排除;其二不是新闻而是算术,9月4日的完整交易所文件到达,十二个铝合约与十二个氧化铝合约的开高低收全部在册,由此得到本简报数周以来最干净的一条单日事实——十二个铝合约全部收在各自开盘价之下,从 AL2707 的 −100 到 AL2701 的 −220,其中三个开在自身最高价;而十二个氧化铝合约全部收在各自开盘价之上,从 AO2706 的 +9 到 AO2701 的 +45,二十四个合约、两次方向完全相反的全胜,发生在同一个交易日,这一点在只看近月时完全不可见,它把原先被读作「主力回落」的事件升级为「全曲线一致回落」,同时把氧化铝的强势升级为「全曲线一致上行」;同一份文件还把上期只能命名的 27,720 手余额逐笔闭合,11,970 加 8,736 加 4,028 加 1,895 加 804 加 287 恰为 27,720,589,884 加 27,720 恰为公布的 617,604,并使两项结构性推算首次成为可能:铝盘由 AL2609 的 24,305 降至 AL2708 的 24,135,前后 −170 即最近月的 0.70%,且 2703–2708 段几近走平,盘面给近月定了紧、给远月几乎没有定紧;氧化铝则是镜像,十一个间隔全部为正、无一处倒挂,由 2,728 升至 2,892,前后 +164 即最近月的 6.01%,而曲线上第一个收在成本口径二 2,826.21 之上的合约是 AO2703,即六个月之后,意味着盘面把氧化铝的成本抬升定价成 2027 年的事;把两条曲线以每吨电解铝耗氧化铝 1.93 吨的假设系数合起来,粗口径毛利代理值自 2026 年 10 月到 2027 年 8 月压缩 415.55 元,因为投入成本沿曲线上升 260.55 而金属价格下降 155.00——系数是假设,且六个远月合约合计成交仅 2,544 手、占品种的 1.04%,两条限定都写在推算之前;夜盘第三次说了同一件事并且逐条闭合,以结算价为基准近月 −55 而 AL2703 +35、四条氧化铝腿 +12 至 +20 全部为正,六条全部精确对上,AL2703 的夜盘涨幅是本简报现在握有的第三条移仓证据;与之相对,伦敦一栏按上期所预告的方式变坏,Westmetall 连续第四期空白、最新行仍是 9月3日,因此上期事先写下的承诺在本期执行——「LME 库存为 1990 年以来最低」由当期事实降格为历史引用,该数据未被撤回也未被怀疑,只是被重新归类,直到新的一行发布为止;关于它还有两件不利于本简报自身的事必须说:第一,那条承诺里的天数是错的,它写作「已欠三天」,而伦敦实际只欠一个已收盘的交易日即 9月4日,9月7日在写下该句时尚未开市、不可能被欠,这是两期之内的第二次日期对齐错误,昨日刚以自身算术撤销过一次下调的简报,今日必须同样记录同一类算术连续两次失手;第二,更实质的是流量,本期首次直接以 Westmetall 自身的行计算,8月18日 246,925 吨到 9月3日 245,975 吨,十一个间隔累计仅减少 950 吨即 0.38%,其中七个间隔是精确的零,真正有量的只有 9月2日的 −500 与 9月3日的 −250,一条独立仓储口径以 246.0 千吨确认了水平并在 24 小时与 7 日两项上分毫对上,但它确认的是水平、没有提供新的日期,因此对这条账上最硬的偏多数据,诚实的读法是它既是一个真实的纪录也是一个几乎不动的纪录,两句话必须并存;其余各栏小幅两向移动,成本端拿到了此前缺少的一个数字即 9 月氟化铝招标价 11,500–12,000 元/吨,氧化铝供给端拿到一条远期利空即俄铝将在印尼建设铝土矿—氧化铝联合体,而这条与同一家生产商正为四家面临封存、合计年亏约 8 亿美元的工厂寻求克里姆林宫援助、并已提出 210 万吨封存计划的事实并列时,呈现的是同一家公司的两个方向,且目前只有对外扩张的一半有具名合作方;而本期最重要的一点在于没有的那部分:SMM 9月7日周一社会库存印记截至写稿时尚未发布,而这份印记正是上期核心论断——去库在 9 月第一周重新加速至 8 月周均 1.55 倍、且该论断只建立在一个周度观测之上——的第一次续验,该检验本期被推迟,既未通过也未失败,本简报不把数据的缺席读作任何一个方向;综上,本期的实物栏是维持但未获刷新,伦敦栏是维持但已被正式降格,宏观栏是收回了一格分辨率、同时重新打开了一条地缘尾部,而盘面栏虽然没有交易,却在同一份文件的更完整读法下,显示出上周五那一天没有人当时看得见的一致性(此为解读)。

九 · 今日(9月7日)日盘与夜盘关注清单

  • ⚑ 第一位是价位,而且判别位与上期完全相同:24,320 是起点,24,290 是第一道判别,24,189.00 是第二道。 9月4日夜盘末价 24,320 高于日盘收盘 30 元、低于结算 55 元,因此今日日盘是从 24,320 而不是 24,290 开始的。若日盘站稳 24,290 并收在 24,320 之上,则 9月4日的回踩应被归类为对已清关位置的确认性回踩;若跌破 24,290 并进一步失守 MA5(24,189.00,守住幅度仅剩 101.00),则价格回到自身均线带之内,自 8月3日起的上行结构需要被重新评估。上期两分支检验(24,390 / 24,275)继续有效,持仓一项应以品种合计而非主力为第一口径。
  • ⚑⚑ 本期最重要的待定项:SMM 9月7日周一社会库存印记能否落在 800,000 吨附近或以下。 判别区间与上期所写一致:落在 800,000–806,000 吨(即较 9月3日再减 9,000–15,000 吨)则「加速」由单周观测升级为序列;持平或回升至 820,000 吨以上,则上期的加速读法应被降格为单周波动,本简报将明确写下该降格。同时观察三地日度能否延续 −8,000 至 −10,500 的节奏,以及 9月4日缺失的那一份日度印记是否补发。
  • ⚑⚑ 伦敦:Westmetall 的 9月4日行能否与 9月7日行一并补发。 本期已按承诺把「1990 年以来最低」降格为历史引用;该降格的撤销条件是明确的——只要一行新的结算与库存发布,即予撤销并写明。同时观察:9月4日现货结算是否落在 3,292.50 美元附近(若是,伦铝仍高于全部六条均线);0.50 美元的 contango 是走阔还是重回 backwardation;以及新的库存行是否打破本期计算出的「十一个间隔仅 −950 吨、其中七个为零」的静止状态。
  • ⚑ 基差能否守住升水,仍是实物栏最强证据能否成立的唯一检验,判别位是 0 与 −20。 9月4日的 +70 升水只有一个交易日的寿命,今日是它的第一次续验。若现货维持在盘面之上(基差 ≥ 0),则「下游在更高价位接货」由单日事件升级为序列;若基差退回 −20 以外,则该升水应被重新归类为周五盘面下跌造成的被动错位。同时观察华南三条口径(南海 24,810、南储 24,520、中铝华南 24,520)能否止跌,以及三地价差收敛是否延续。
  • ⚑⚑ 本期新增的一条检验:铝的 backwardation 与氧化铝的 contango 会不会同时松动。 判别位是铝盘 AL2609 − AL2708 的 −170 与氧化铝 AO2708 − AO2609 的 +164。若今日铝的近远月价差进一步走阔而氧化铝的 contango 同步走阔,则「近月实物紧 + 远期成本升」这一组合被确认为结构而非单日;若铝的 backwardation 收敛而氧化铝的 contango 亦收敛,则 9月4日的二十四合约分裂应被降格为一次性的移仓与结算效应。同时观察 AO2701 的持仓是否继续大于 AO2610,以及氧化铝主力持仓能否终止六连降。
  • ⚑ 地缘与能源:美伊互击是否延续,以及霍尔木兹通行量。 9月5日之后是否有新的打击或报复、布伦特能否守住 96 美元一线、海湾原铝产能(约 200 万吨/年中断)是否出现新的增减,是本期唯一一条同时作用于成本端与风险偏好的变量。本简报对该项不作方向性加权,只作事实跟踪。
  • ⚑ 9月8日是本周的双事件日,今日即为其前一日:中国 8 月进出口数据与加拿大关税由 25% 升至 50% 同日落地。 中国 7 月铝材出口同比 +18.7% 已在账上,8 月数据是检验该势头是否延续的直接证据;加拿大的税率翻倍点名铝棒,恰好落在「铝棒过剩、加工费低位」之上。两者叠加于最弱的出口需求栏,应作为一组观察。此外今日 8 月外汇储备、9月9日 CPI(预期 +0.9%)与 PPI(预期 +3.2%)、9月10日社融(增速预期减速至约 5%)与新增贷款(约 5,000 亿元)构成周内节奏。

免责声明

  • 本简报仅供内部晨会参考,所载数据来源于上海期货交易所公开日度文件及其第三方镜像、Westmetall、TradingEconomics、路透、NPR、CNBC、彭博、SMM(上海有色网)、钢联(我的钢铁网)、世铝网、AL Circle 及公开企业公告等公开渠道。标注「⚑ / ⊘」的为事实性数据,标注「此为解读 / 此为推算」的为本简报的判断或计算,两者已在正文中明确区分。多来源口径不一致者一律并列载入,不作调和;经源站自身页面证伪者予以弃用并写明。本期因无新的交易日,所有价格类数据均为沿用并已逐条标注;涉及假设系数的推算(如 1.93 吨耗量)已在推算前标明其为假设。本简报不构成任何投资建议,不对据此作出的任何决策承担责任。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and the nature of this edition

  • Written the morning of Monday, September 7, BEFORE the SHFE day session opens. The newest board data of any kind is still the September 4 day session plus the September 4 night session, so every price, moving average, percentile and open-interest figure in this section is the September 4 value carried forward — the THIRD consecutive edition with no new Chinese close.
  • ⚑ NEW this edition: the COMPLETE September 4 SHFE exchange table for all twelve aluminium and all twelve alumina contracts, including six far aluminium contracts (AL2703–AL2708) and seven far alumina contracts the prior edition never carried, which makes four previously impossible derivations available; settlement-basis night changes for four alumina legs plus AL2703, all of which reconcile exactly; LIVE Monday quotes for crude and the dollar index, which RESOLVE the $7–8 crude caliber break recorded as irreconcilable one edition ago; the September 5 resumption of US–Iran strikes; a quantified September aluminium fluoride tender range; Rusal’s Indonesian bauxite-alumina complex; a fifth London price caliber; an independent confirmation of the September 3 LME stock level; and the eleven-interval London stock flow, computed here for the first time.
  • ⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE: Westmetall’s September 4 settlement row, unpublished for a FOURTH consecutive edition, which triggers EXECUTION of the demotion committed to one edition ago; the September 4 LME stock figure; SMM’s Monday September 7 social-inventory print, which had not published at the time of writing and is this edition’s most important pending item; SMM’s September 4 three-region daily series; the SHFE Friday weekly warehouse and warrant print; SMM’s absolute A00, regional premia, sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings (login-walled for a SEVENTH edition — the industry-confirmation half of the alumina test remains UNTESTABLE rather than failed); and the October fed funds strip, absent for a TENTH edition.

⊘ SHFE: nothing traded — but the contract table is complete for the first time

  • CARRIED: AL2610 (main) open 24,475, high 24,510, low 24,270, close 24,290, settlement 24,375, prior settlement 24,275. Close-to-close −80 (−0.33%); against prior settlement +15. Volume 151,835 (−33.9%); OI 254,755 (−2,092).
  • ⚑⚑ THE SIX FAR CONTRACTS, CARRIED HERE FOR THE FIRST TIME: AL2703 open 24,290, high 24,325, low 24,160, close 24,180, settlement 24,225, volume 969, OI 11,970; AL2704 24,325 / 24,325 / 24,165 / 24,185, settlement 24,220, volume 942, OI 8,736; AL2705 24,275 / 24,310 / 24,160 / 24,170, settlement 24,255, volume 409, OI 4,028; AL2706 24,300 / 24,305 / 24,135 / 24,160, settlement 24,240, volume 126, OI 1,895; AL2707 24,260 / 24,285 / 24,130 / 24,160, settlement 24,205, volume 55, OI 804; AL2708 24,275 / 24,300 / 24,130 / 24,135, settlement 24,210, volume 43, OI 287.
  • ⚑⚑ THE 27,720-LOT RESIDUAL CLOSES TO THE LOT (derivation): 11,970 + 8,736 + 4,028 + 1,895 + 804 + 287 = **27,720 exactly, and 589,884 + 27,720 = 617,604, reproducing the published complex open interest with no gap. The prior edition could name this residual; it could not break it down.**
  • ⚑⚑ THE CLEANEST SINGLE-SESSION FACT IN WEEKS (derivation): on September 4 ALL TWELVE aluminium contracts closed BELOW their opens — AL2609 −120, AL2610 −185, AL2611 −175, AL2612 −185, AL2701 −220, AL2702 −190, AL2703 −110, AL2704 −140, AL2705 −105, AL2706 −140, AL2707 −100, AL2708 −140. The largest is AL2701’s −220; the smallest AL2707’s −100.
  • ⚑ And THREE contracts opened AT their own highs: AL2701 (24,400 = 24,400), AL2702 (24,350 = 24,350), AL2704 (24,325 = 24,325). Friday’s decline was therefore not a front-month event but a whole-curve decline running from the opening bell (interpretation).
  • ⚑⊘ CURVE SHAPE, computable for the first time (derivation): aluminium runs from AL2609’s 24,305 down to AL2708’s 24,135 — a front-to-tail BACKWARDATION of **170, or 0.70% of the front — with 145 of that falling across the 2609→2702 stretch and the 2703–2708 tail nearly flat between 24,135 and 24,185. The board prices near-term tightness and almost no forward tightness (interpretation).**
  • CARRIED: complex volume 244,604; complex OI 617,604 (+2,553).

⊘ Averages and percentiles: September 4 values, carried

  • CARRIED: MA5 24,189.00, MA10 23,996.50, MA20 23,981.75, MA30 23,859.50, MA40 23,693.38, MA60 23,576.67 — above all six by 101.00, 293.50, 308.25, 430.50, 596.62 and 713.33, a fifth consecutive session above the whole band, all six rising and MA60 up 1.75 for a second session.
  • CARRIED: the MA5 clearance is 101.00 and is the only average within reach; 20-session close percentile 89.7%, 60-session 95.8%.
  • ⚑ NIGHT-SESSION DETAIL, two legs new and all six reconciling EXACTLY against the day settlements (derivation): AL main **−55 to 24,320 (24,375 − 55 ✓); AL2703 +35 to 24,260 (24,225 + 35 ✓); AO2609 +15 to 2,730 (2,715 + 15 ✓); AO2610 +12 to 2,760 (2,748 + 12 ✓); AO2611 +12 to 2,770 (2,758 + 12 ✓); AO2701 +20 to 2,798 (2,778 + 20 ✓).**
  • ⚑ The night session split the same way the day did: aluminium’s front lost 55 against settlement while ALL FOUR quoted alumina legs gained 12 to 20 — and AL2703 gained 35. That last figure is the THIRD independent roll observation this brief holds, after AL2611’s 7,757-lot build and AL2702’s +60, the largest close-basis gain on the board (interpretation).
  • CARRIED: night AL2610 open 24,240, high 24,355, low 24,200, last 24,320, VWAP 24,307, volume 52,304; AO2610 last 2,760; AD2610 last 23,555.

⊘⊘ London: blank for a FOURTH edition — and the commitment is executed

  • ⊘ Westmetall’s newest row is STILL September 3: cash settlement $3,303.00, 3-month $3,303.50, stock 245,975 mt. The September 4 row remains unpublished as of writing, for a fourth consecutive edition.
  • ⊘⊘ DEMOTION EXECUTED: the prior edition committed, in writing and before the fact, that if Monday brought no publication then “LME stocks are the lowest since 1990” would be demoted from a CURRENT FACT to a HISTORICAL CITATION. Monday brought no publication. **The demotion is executed today. The datum is neither withdrawn nor doubted — it is reclassified, and it stays reclassified until a new row publishes.**
  • ⊘ And the day-count inside that commitment was WRONG. It said London owed “three days”. London owes ONE settled session — September 4 — because September 7 had not traded when the claim was made and a session that has not happened cannot be in arrears. This is the **second date-alignment error in two editions, after the 43,000 mt “spread” that turned out to be three dates. A brief that reversed a downgrade yesterday on the strength of its own arithmetic has to record when the same class of arithmetic fails twice running (interpretation).**
  • ⊘⊘ AND THE FLOW BEHIND THE FLAGSHIP NUMBER IS NEARLY STATIC — computed here for the first time from Westmetall’s own rows (derivation): August 18 246,925 mt → September 3 245,975 mt is **−950 mt across eleven intervals, −0.38%, of which SEVEN intervals printed exactly zero and the only material moves are −500 (September 2) and −250 (September 3). The honest reading of the hardest bullish number on this ledger is that it is a real record AND a nearly motionless one, and both halves belong in the same sentence.**
  • ⚑ An independent caliber confirms the LEVEL but supplies no new DATE: a third-party vault feed reads 246.0K mt at September 3, 24h −0.10%, 7d −0.30%, 30d −4.1%, described as “the lowest level in the 19-year record”. Check (derivation): the 24h matches −250 / 246,225 = −0.1016% ✓; the 7d matches August 28’s 246,725 → 245,975 = −0.304% ✓. Both reproduce.
  • ⊘ A FIFTH London caliber, new this edition: SMM’s own quote page carries LME aluminium at **$3,293.50 (−$2.50, −0.0758%), implying a prior of $3,296.00 — matching NEITHER Westmetall’s $3,303.00 NOR TradingEconomics’ $3,292.50. London now carries FIVE September readings ($3,280.60 / $3,292.50 / $3,293.50 / $3,303.00 / $3,317.50), all listed, none reconciled.**
  • ⚑⊘ THE RATIO, ON THREE CALIBERS (derivation): 24,290 ÷ $3,303.00 = **7.3539 (last exact settlement); ÷ $3,293.50 = 7.3751 (SMM); ÷ $3,292.50 = 7.3774 (TradingEconomics). On the night’s last: 24,320 ÷ $3,303.00 = 7.3630. The spread is caliber, not market.**

⊘ Spot: no new trading day — the September 4 set is carried for a third edition

  • CARRIED: Shanghai spot 24,360 (+20, range 24,340–24,380); Changjiang 24,360 (+20); Zhongyuan 24,360 (+20); Nanhai/Foshan 24,810 (−40, range 24,760–24,860); Guangdong Nanchu 24,520 (−30, range 24,490–24,550); Chalco East 24,360 (+10), South 24,520 (−30), Southwest 24,370 (flat), Central 24,210 (flat).
  • CARRIED: the basis is a **+70 PREMIUM (spot 24,360 against AL2610’s 24,290) — the first spot premium since August 13, achieved on a day the board fell 80, and still only ONE session old. Today is its first test.**
  • CARRIED: all three South China spreads narrowed for a second session (Nanhai−Shanghai 450, Nanchu−Shanghai 160, Chalco South−East 160).
  • ⊘ SMM’s absolute A00 and its regional transaction premia are login-walled for a SEVENTH consecutive edition.

⚑⚑ Alumina: the full curve arrives — and its shape is the exact opposite of aluminium’s

  • ⚑⚑ THE COMPLETE SEPTEMBER 4 ALUMINA CLOSE CURVE, carried here for the first time, MONOTONIC across eleven intervals with NOT ONE inversion: AO2609 2,728 / AO2610 2,757 / AO2611 2,766 / AO2612 2,780 / AO2701 2,795 / AO2702 2,807 / AO2703 2,831 / AO2704 2,836 / AO2705 2,854 / AO2706 2,862 / AO2707 2,885 / AO2708 2,892.
  • ⚑⚑ Front-to-tail contango **+164, or 6.01% of the front — against aluminium’s −170 (−0.70%) on the same session. Two boards, one day, opposite shapes: aluminium backwardated, alumina in a perfect monotonic contango (derivation).**
  • ⚑⚑ And ALL TWELVE alumina contracts closed ABOVE their opens: AO2609 +28, AO2610 +19, AO2611 +28, AO2612 +28, AO2701 +45, AO2702 +25, AO2703 +21, AO2704 +19, AO2705 +20, AO2706 +9, AO2707 +21, AO2708 +39. Set against aluminium’s twelve-for-twelve the other way, that is **twenty-four contracts, 0-for-12 against 12-for-12, on one session (derivation).**
  • ⚑ SETTLEMENTS: 2,715 / 2,748 / 2,758 / 2,763 / 2,778 / 2,802 / 2,826 / 2,841 / 2,852 / 2,857 / 2,870 / 2,881. OPEN INTEREST: 4,695 / 113,727 / 99,231 / 58,216 / 150,947 / 17,074 / 1,067 / 300 / 2,172 / 87 / 201 / 110, summing to **447,827 exactly; complex volume 418,622. AO2701’s 150,947 is the largest single book on the board.**
  • ⚑⊘ A derivation possible for the first time: cost caliber two is **2,826.21, and the first contract on the curve closing ABOVE it is AO2703 at 2,831 — six months out. Every contract from AO2609 through AO2702 closes below it. The board prices alumina cost inflation as a 2027 event, not a 2026 one (derivation).**
  • ⊘ Going one step further (derivation, with its coefficient flagged as an ASSUMPTION): at an assumed 1.93 t of alumina per t of aluminium, AL2610 24,290 − 1.93 × 2,757 = **18,968.99; AL2708 24,135 − 1.93 × 2,892 = 18,553.44. Along the curve the alumina input rises 260.55 while the metal price falls 155.00, compressing the crude margin proxy by 415.55 yuan/mt. The conclusion moves with the coefficient.**
  • ⊘ Stated before it is leaned on: AL2703–AL2708 traded **2,544 lots between them, 1.04% of the complex’s 244,604. Every far-curve derivation above rests on genuine exchange settlement data AND on almost no liquidity. Both are true.**
  • CARRIED: AO2610 close 2,757, settlement 2,748, volume 219,656 (+49.0%), OI 113,727 (−14,117, a sixth consecutive decline).

⚑⊘ Cost and alloy

  • ⚑ NEW, BULLISH (cost): September **aluminium fluoride tenders settled at RMB 11,500–12,000/mt. The prior edition could record only that benchmark enterprises had raised them; this edition can price the raise. It runs alongside September prebaked anode at 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 on acceptance.**
  • ⊘ FOUR ADC12 calibers remain unreconciled and are all listed: 23,900 carried, SMM 23,950, Changjiang spot alloy 24,000, Changjiang composite East China 23,615, Foshan mainstream 23,500–23,800; A356.2 at 24,400. CARRIED: AD2610 closed 23,545 (−90), still above all six of its averages; the AD−AL day spread is 745.

3 · Inventory

⊘ No new domestic print this edition — and that absence is the edition’s most important gap

  • ⊘⊘ **SMM’s Monday September 7 social-inventory print had NOT published at the time of writing. The prior edition’s central claim — that destocking re-accelerated in September’s first week to 1.55× the August pace — rests on ONE weekly observation, and Monday’s start-of-week print is its first test. That test is DEFERRED: not passed, not failed. This brief does not read the absence in either direction.**
  • CARRIED: national ingot social inventory **815,000 mt at Thursday September 3, −22,000 vs Monday and −37,000 vs the prior Thursday; the chain Aug 27 852,000 → Aug 31 837,000 → Sept 3 815,000 closes on all three identities with no rounding gap.**
  • CARRIED (pace, derivation): 37,000 mt/week = **1.55× August’s ~23,935 and 96% of July’s ~38,387; cumulative draw from the early-July 1.13 million mt phase high is 315,000 mt.**
  • CARRIED (daily): three-region Sept 1 659,500 → Sept 2 651,500 (−8,000) → Sept 3 641,000 (−10,500); Guangdong 143,000, Wuxi 300,000, Gongyi 198,000; coverage 641,000 ÷ 815,000 = **78.7%. ⊘ The September 4 daily print was not retrievable.**
  • CARRIED: two-region billet 89,000 mt at Sept 3 (unchanged); national mainstream billet 140,500 mt (Aug 31); cast alloy 28,100 mt.
  • CARRIED: SMM’s August 27 regional detail — Foshan 153,000 (−66,000 over five weeks, premiums 220 yuan/mt), Wuxi 326,000, Gongyi 209,000 (−35,000 over five weeks); weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt, +12,200 w/w, the highest for the same period in nearly four years.
  • ⊘ The one surviving caliber spread is unchanged: Mysteel 809,000 mt at Aug 31 against SMM 837,000 mt at Aug 31 — 28,000 mt apart, ~107,000 mt of the Mysteel figure unclear-ownership.
  • ⊘⊘ **LME stocks, DEMOTED this edition: 245,975 mt at September 3, September 4 row unpublished. ⚑ Flow computed for the first time: August 18 246,925 → September 3 245,975 = −950 mt across eleven intervals (−0.38%), SEVEN of them exactly zero.**
  • CARRIED: bonded 116,000 mt at Sept 3 (Shanghai 89,000 + Guangdong 27,000, flat w/w); national alumina inventory 7.27 million mt (+8,000) at Sept 3; SHFE weekly warehouse 391,498 mt with warrants 245,510 (−28,691), an eleventh consecutive weekly decline on a third-party caliber; SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827). ⊘ The Friday weekly print was again not retrievable.

Interpretation

  • ⚑ In an edition with no new print, the inventory column’s effect on price can only be recorded as **maintained, not added to: 815,000 mt and a daily series covering 78.7% of it still point to support, but the STRENGTH of that support could not be refreshed this edition (interpretation).**
  • ⊘ The London side, by contrast, WEAKENED — not because stocks built, but because (i) the newest print stops at September 3 and (ii) an actual flow of −950 mt across eleven intervals shows the record is nearly motionless. A “lowest since 1990” figure that has barely moved in three weeks should have its bullish content discounted, and this edition discounts it (interpretation).

4 · Macro Factors

⚑⚑ The one big thing that happened over the weekend: US–Iran strikes resumed

  • ⚑⚑ **Saturday, September 5: US Central Command struck three Iranian oil tankers — two “permanently disabled” and one “completely destroyed” — after the IRGC launched two ballistic missiles at two US Navy warships patrolling the area. Neither US ship was hit and no servicemembers were injured. Strikes between the two had been paused for roughly a month.**
  • ⚑ Crude carried that into the Monday open (live calibers): **Brent $96.555, +$0.28 (+0.29%; month +10.07%, year +46.25%), with the source’s own text separately reading “$96.61 on September 7, up 0.34%”; WTI $91.88, +$0.40 (+0.44%; month +11.87%, year +47.58%). The source’s commentary: “crude rose above $92 per barrel on Monday, extending last week’s gains as the US and Iran exchanged strikes.”**
  • ⚑⚑ And that same quote **RESOLVES the prior edition’s caliber break. That edition listed Brent $88.88 / WTI $83.11 against Brent $96.28 / WTI $91.31, a $7–8 gap, and recorded that no source reconciled them. TradingEconomics’ own dedicated crude pages carry the $96 and $91 handles. The $88.88 / $83.11 pair is DISCARDED, not listed in parallel (interpretation).**
  • ⚑⊘ For aluminium this is explicitly TWO-SIDED and this brief weights it at zero rather than pretending otherwise (interpretation): (i) BULLISH — higher energy lifts the smelting cost floor and returns the Gulf disruption, roughly **2 million mt/yr of primary capacity lost since the February 28 strikes, to an OPEN question rather than a closed one; (ii) BEARISH — a crude move driven by shipping risk in a strait carrying about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil is also a risk-off impulse, and this brief’s own July and August record shows such impulses REPEATEDLY failing to translate into a higher aluminium price (the August 4 edition recorded exactly that decoupling).**

⊘ Dollar, Fed and the rest

  • ⚑ The dollar index reads **99.087 live on Monday (−0.09%; month −0.72%, year +1.68%), against the September 4 close set of 99.13 / 99.157 / 99.27 / 99.3. A small move, and the only macro leg pointing the bulls’ way without a caveat attached.**
  • CARRIED: August payrolls 162,000 against 53,000 expected, unemployment 4.1%, July restated from −23,000 to +21,000 and June revised up to 31,000; average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m to $37.75 and only +3.1% y/y, the softest of the cycle.
  • ⊘ The Fed caliber set gains a SIXTH reading and still does not converge: a September 4 **pre-payroll caliber reads September hike 50.2%, down from 63.2% on Wednesday following Waller — consistent with the ~50.5% this brief carries. Against 49.4% (which called 57% a week earlier), 66% (August 31), and ~57–65% post-payrolls. All listed, none reconciled.**
  • ⊘ One retrieved caliber is labelled STALE and EXCLUDED rather than folded in: a Goldman Sachs note putting September at 30%, no hike through 2026 and the first cut in 2027 dates to **August 17 — before Jackson Hole and before payrolls. It is recorded, not used (interpretation).**
  • ⊘ CARRIED: the Fed blackout took effect September 5, so no official commentary is expected this week. ⊘ The October fed funds strip is missing for a TENTH consecutive edition.
  • ⚑ China’s data week starts TODAY: September 7 August FX reserves; **September 8 trade balance and import/export y/y — the same day Canada’s steel and aluminium counter-tariffs step from 25% to 50% with aluminium rod named; September 9 CPI (expected +0.9% y/y) and PPI (expected +3.2%); September 10 M0/M1/M2, TSF and new loans (loans expected ~RMB 500 billion, TSF growth expected to DECELERATE to roughly 5%).**

Interpretation

  • ⚑ The macro column’s RESOLUTION improved one notch this edition: the $7–8 crude break was resolved on the source’s own dedicated pages, and the dollar has a live reading. The prior edition’s note that “macro resolution is down” is partially withdrawn (interpretation).
  • ⊘ Its DIRECTION did not become clearer. A marginally softer dollar is bullish; crude is two-sided; four Fed calibers sit in parallel; and the blackout guarantees no new guidance. The macro column stays **NEUTRAL-TO-BEARISH, with one amendment: the geopolitical line moves back from “converged” to “open” (interpretation).**

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Domestic supply and demand

  • CARRIED: Chinese primary aluminium operating rate 98.4%, leaving no domestic supply elasticity against the 45 million mt ceiling; RatingDog August manufacturing PMI 51.5 (six-month high), NBS 49.8, aluminium processing composite PMI 48.7%.
  • CARRIED: weekly operating rates to August 27 — extrusion 50.6% (−0.2), plate/sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6). No update this edition.
  • CARRIED: weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt (+12,200), the highest for the same period in nearly four years — still the only VOLUME-based demand evidence on this ledger.
  • ⊘ CARRIED, the other way: aluminium rod oversupply persists with processing fees at low levels and absolute inventory elevated; two-region billet was unchanged at 89,000 mt on September 3 and did NOT follow the ingot draw — part of the metal leaving ingot warehouses is arriving in rod and billet warehouses rather than in finished demand.
  • ⊘ TRADE POLICY: Thailand’s new-exporter anti-dumping review on Chinese extrusions (provisional 21.94%, under a November 24, 2025 order of 5.12%–21.94% for five years); **Canada’s tariff doubling takes effect TOMORROW, September 8, with aluminium rod named, the same day China’s August export data lands. Both fall on the weakest column in this brief.**

⚑⊘ Overseas and cost: one bullish item, one bearish, this edition

  • ⚑ BULLISH (cost): September aluminium fluoride tenders settled at **RMB 11,500–12,000/mt; carried September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot; carried Chalco H1 metallurgical alumina output 7.38 million mt, −14.19% y/y.**
  • ⊘ BEARISH (supply), NEW: **Rusal will build a bauxite and alumina complex in Indonesia. Announced by President Prabowo at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 3 — Rusal enters “on a large scale” to develop a refinery with local partners, described by the company as a continuation of its Pacific diversification. Long-dated, and bearish for the alumina cost floor.**
  • ⚑⊘ The two have to be read together (interpretation): the SAME producer is reported seeking Kremlin support for **four bauxite and alumina plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of annual losses, and has proposed mothballing 2.1 million mt of alumina at home, while announcing new build abroad. One company, two directions — and only the abroad half currently has a named partner.**
  • ⊘ NEW UNRECONCILED CALIBER: one retrieved source expects EGA’s Al Taweelah alumina to reach **50% of capacity “within days”, against the 25% refill this brief carries. The snippet is undated. Listed in parallel, NOT reconciled, NOT substituted.**
  • CARRIED forward-supply ledger (no update): Guinea’s ~150 million mt/yr export cap target (−25%); Rio Tinto Yarwun −1.2 million mt/yr from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut of 200,000–300,000 mt; Alunorte back to full; Qatalum ~60% of nameplate; Alba lines 1–3 down (19%); Asia H1 alumina exports 7.05 million mt (+27.36%) with 8 million mt reachable in H2; Chinese alumina spot drifting lower on climbing inventories; Guinean miners front-loading shipments; operating capacity 95.90 million mt/yr against a ~99 million mt/yr trade caliber, unreconciled.
  • CARRIED (bearish): Japanese Q4 premium offers USD 310–325/mt, −18% to −22% q/q — no update and no rebuttal this edition.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⊘ No new trading day — September 4 transactions and sentiment carried for a third edition

  • CARRIED · East China: Shanghai spot 24,360 (+20), basis +70 premium; holders raised offers by 20 while the board fell 80, and transactions held. Shipment willingness **firm (reluctant selling); purchasing willingness firm.**
  • CARRIED · South China: Nanhai/Foshan 24,810 (−40), Nanchu 24,520 (−30), Chalco South 24,520 (−30) — all three calibers lower in absolute terms; shipment willingness firm, price-holding willingness weak.
  • CARRIED · Central and Southwest: Chalco Central 24,210 (flat), holding above 24,000 for a second session; Southwest 24,370 (flat).
  • ⚑ One structural corroboration this edition can add (interpretation): the night session’s split — aluminium’s front down 55 against settlement while AL2703 rose 35 — points the same way as the spot picture of “South China off its highs, East China premium established”. **What is being priced is present physical tightness, not an upward forward curve — and the board’s −170 backwardation is the same statement in a different instrument.**
  • ⊘ SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices are unavailable for a SEVENTH consecutive edition; the judgements above are inferred from price, change, basis, regional spreads and inventory behaviour, NOT from SMM’s indices.

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

  • ⚑⚑ US–Iran strikes resumed September 5, with three Iranian tankers hit; the Gulf’s ~2 million mt/yr of disrupted primary capacity moves from “converged” back to **OPEN.**
  • ⚑ Brent $96.56 (+0.29%) and WTI $91.88 (+0.44%), month +10.07% and +11.87%, lifting the smelting cost floor.
  • ⚑ The $7–8 crude caliber break is resolved; the macro column recovers one notch of resolution.
  • ⚑ Dollar index 99.087 live Monday (−0.09%), month −0.72%.
  • ⚑⚑ ALL TWELVE alumina contracts closed above their opens (+9 to +45), on a **perfectly monotonic contango of +164 (6.01%) with no inversion anywhere on the curve.**
  • ⚑ All four quoted alumina legs rose against settlement in the night session (+12 to +20), AO2701’s +20 the largest night gain on either board.
  • ⚑ AO2701’s 150,947 lots is the largest book on the board and exceeds the front contract’s 113,727 — migration rather than departure, confirmed a second time.
  • ⚑ EVERY contract on the alumina curve closes above cost caliber one (2,718).
  • ⚑ AL2703 gained 35 against settlement in the night while the front lost 55 — the THIRD roll observation, after AL2611’s 7,757-lot build and AL2702’s +60.
  • ⚑ September aluminium fluoride tenders settled at RMB 11,500–12,000/mt, extending the cost lift.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: social inventory 815,000 mt at September 3, −37,000 w/w, 1.55× the August weekly pace; cumulative draw 315,000 mt.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: three-region daily 641,000 mt with the draw widening from −8,000 to −10,500; coverage 78.7%.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt (+12,200), the highest for the same period in nearly four years.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: Foshan −66,000 mt over five weeks with premiums at 220 yuan/mt; Gongyi −35,000 mt.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: basis a +70 premium, the first since August 13, achieved on a down day for the board.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: close above all six averages by 101.00 to 713.33 for a fifth session, all six rising.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: complex open interest +2,553 — a roll, not an exit.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: SHFE weekly warehouse stocks described by a third party as an eleventh consecutive weekly decline; bonded flat w/w, so external units are not returning.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: Chinese operating rate 98.4% with no elasticity against the 45 million mt ceiling; Chalco H1 alumina output −14.19% y/y.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: August average hourly earnings +3.1% y/y, the softest of the cycle.
  • ⚑ CARRIED: Guinean bauxite spot CIF USD 72–73/dry mt with freight near USD 40.
  • ⚑ CONDITIONAL: Rusal’s four plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of losses — bullish for the alumina cost floor IF executed.
  • ⚑ SMM expects destocking to continue through the first half of September and regional spreads to converge.

⊘ Bearish factors

  • ⊘⊘ Westmetall blank for a FOURTH consecutive edition; neither the September 4 settlement row nor the September 4 stock figure published.
  • ⊘⊘ “LME stocks are the lowest since 1990” is **demoted this edition from current fact to historical citation — the commitment executed as written.**
  • ⊘⊘ The flow behind that flagship number is nearly static: August 18 246,925 → September 3 245,975 is −950 mt across eleven intervals (−0.38%), SEVEN of them exactly zero.
  • ⊘ The day-count in this brief’s own commitment over-counted by two — the SECOND date-alignment error in two editions. Method reliability is recorded here as DOWN.
  • ⊘⊘ ALL TWELVE aluminium contracts closed below their opens (−100 to −220), three of them opening at their own highs: Friday’s decline was a whole-curve event, not a front-month wobble.
  • ⊘⊘ The aluminium curve is BACKWARDATED −170 (−0.70%) with the 2703–2708 tail nearly flat — **the board prices almost no forward tightness.**
  • ⊘ On an assumed 1.93 t coefficient, the crude margin proxy compresses **415.55 yuan/mt along the curve (alumina input +260.55, metal price −155.00).**
  • ⊘ The alumina curve first closes above cost caliber two (2,826.21) only at **AO2703 (2,831) — cost inflation priced as a 2027 rather than a 2026 event.**
  • ⊘ Far-curve liquidity is minimal: AL2703–AL2708 traded 2,544 lots, 1.04% of the complex.
  • ⊘ NEW (supply): Rusal will build a bauxite-alumina complex in Indonesia (Prabowo, EEF Vladivostok, September 3).
  • ⊘ NEW (unreconciled): an EGA Al Taweelah 50% caliber against the 25% carried here, from an undated snippet.
  • ⊘ NO new domestic inventory print: SMM’s Monday figure had not published, so the prior edition’s acceleration claim goes **untested for another edition.**
  • ⊘ The September 4 three-region daily print and the SHFE Friday weekly warehouse and warrant print were likewise not retrievable.
  • ⊘ London now carries FIVE mutually inconsistent September readings ($3,280.60 / $3,292.50 / $3,293.50 / $3,303.00 / $3,317.50) and the ratio carries three (7.3539 / 7.3751 / 7.3774).
  • ⊘ CARRIED: the close at 24,290 sits exactly back on the August 12 close; 24,490 and 24,510 are confirmed resistance; the MA5 clearance is down to 101.00; the 20- and 60-session close percentiles have retreated to 89.7% and 95.8%.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: volume of 151,835 was 33.9% below the prior session’s sixty-day record — the follow-through did not continue.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: alumina front-month open interest −14,117 for a sixth consecutive decline, −167,223 (−59.5%) since August 27.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: aluminium rod oversupply, low processing fees, elevated absolute inventory; two-region billet flat on September 3 and not following the ingot draw.
  • ⊘ Canada’s 25%→50% step-up lands TOMORROW with aluminium rod named; Thailand’s 21.94% review is live. Both fall on the weakest column here.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: the Mysteel 809,000 mt vs SMM 837,000 mt spread at August 31 (28,000 mt) is undissolved.
  • ⊘ Four Fed calibers sit in parallel without converging; the October strip is missing for a TENTH edition; the blackout guarantees no new guidance.
  • ⊘ The crude move is also a risk-off impulse, and this brief’s own July–August record shows such impulses repeatedly failing to lift aluminium.
  • ⊘ CARRIED: Japanese Q4 premium offers USD 310–325/mt (−18% to −22% q/q) remain the hardest bearish physical datum on the ledger.
  • ⊘ SMM’s A00, regional premia, sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings are login-walled for a SEVENTH consecutive edition.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

With no new Chinese price for a third consecutive edition, everything that changed over the weekend sits outside the price column, and it changed in two places: geopolitically, the US and Iran resumed striking each other on September 5 after roughly a month’s pause, with CENTCOM hitting three Iranian oil tankers — two permanently disabled, one completely destroyed — in reply to two IRGC ballistic missiles fired at two US Navy warships that were not hit, and crude carried that into the Monday open at Brent $96.56 and WTI $91.88, up 10.07% and 11.87% on the month, which for aluminium is explicitly two-sided — higher energy lifts the smelting cost floor and returns the Gulf’s roughly two million tonnes a year of disrupted primary capacity from a converged question to an open one, while a crude move driven by shipping risk in a strait carrying about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil is simultaneously a risk-off impulse that this brief’s own July and August record shows repeatedly failing to lift the aluminium price, so the item is logged at zero net weight and recorded as a re-opened tail rather than a direction; the same quote incidentally resolves the $7–8 crude caliber break the prior edition called irreconcilable, because the source’s own dedicated crude pages carry the $96 and $91 handles and the $88.88 / $83.11 pair is therefore discarded, which lifts macro resolution one notch without lifting macro clarity at all, since the dollar at 99.087 is the only unconditionally bullish leg, four Fed calibers still sit in parallel, the blackout guarantees no new guidance, and one retrieved Goldman reading turns out to date from August 17 and is labelled stale and excluded rather than quietly folded in; and arithmetically, the complete September 4 exchange file arrived with all twenty-four contracts’ opens, highs, lows, closes, settlements, volumes and open interest, producing the cleanest single-session fact this brief has printed in weeks — every one of the twelve aluminium contracts closed below its open, from AL2707’s −100 to AL2701’s −220, with three of them opening at their own highs, while every one of the twelve alumina contracts closed above its open, from AO2706’s +9 to AO2701’s +45, so that what had been read as a front-month wobble is in fact a whole-curve decline and what had been read as alumina strength is in fact a whole-curve advance; the same file closes the 27,720-lot residual to the lot and makes two structural readings possible for the first time, namely that aluminium is backwardated 170 from AL2609’s 24,305 to AL2708’s 24,135 with the far tail nearly flat, so the board prices present tightness and almost no forward tightness, while alumina runs a perfectly monotonic contango of 164 across eleven intervals with no inversion and does not close above its higher cost caliber of 2,826.21 until AO2703 six months out, meaning forward cost inflation is priced as a 2027 rather than a 2026 event, and that on an assumed 1.93-tonne coefficient the crude margin proxy compresses 415.55 yuan along the curve — all of it computed on genuine settlement data and on 2,544 lots of far-curve volume, 1.04% of the complex, a caveat stated before the derivation rather than after it; against that the London column deteriorated exactly as foreseen, with Westmetall blank for a fourth edition and the pre-written commitment therefore executed today, demoting “LME stocks are the lowest since 1990” from a current fact to a historical citation, a demotion accompanied by two admissions that do not flatter this brief — that the day-count inside the commitment over-counted by two, the second date-alignment error in two editions, and that the flow behind the flagship number is nearly static, at −950 tonnes across eleven intervals of which seven were exactly zero, so the hardest bullish datum on this ledger is at once a real record and a nearly motionless one; and the single most consequential feature of the edition is an absence, because SMM’s Monday social-inventory print had not published at the time of writing and that print is the first and only test of the prior edition’s claim that destocking re-accelerated to 1.55 times the August pace on the strength of one weekly observation, a test that is deferred rather than passed or failed and which this brief declines to read in either direction — leaving a physical column maintained but unrefreshed, a London column formally demoted, a macro column one notch clearer and one tail wider, and a board that did not trade but, read in full, moved on Friday with a uniformity nobody could see at the time (interpretation).

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions (September 7)

  • ⚑ Price comes first and the levels are unchanged: 24,320 is the starting point, 24,290 the first test, 24,189.00 the second. The September 4 night’s last of 24,320 sits 30 above the day close and 55 below the settlement, so today opens from 24,320. Holding above 24,290 and closing above 24,320 classifies Friday as a confirming retest of a cleared level; a break of 24,290 followed by loss of the MA5 at 24,189.00 — only 101.00 of clearance left — puts price back inside its own band and the advance dating from August 3 requires re-assessment. The prior two-branch test (24,390 / 24,275) remains live, and open interest should be judged on the COMPLEX total, not the main contract.
  • ⚑⚑ The edition’s biggest pending item: whether SMM’s Monday print lands at or below roughly 800,000 mt. The discriminating bands are unchanged from the prior edition: 800,000–806,000 mt (a further 9,000–15,000 mt draw from September 3) upgrades the acceleration from a single observation to a SERIES; a flat print or a build back above 820,000 mt demotes the acceleration reading to single-week noise, and this brief will write that demotion explicitly. Watch too whether the three-region daily sustains its −8,000 to −10,500 cadence, and whether the missing September 4 daily print is backfilled.
  • ⚑⚑ London: whether Westmetall publishes the September 4 row, and the September 7 row with it. The demotion executed today has an explicit reversal condition — one new settlement-and-stock row publishes and the demotion is withdrawn, in writing. Watch also whether the September 4 cash settlement lands near $3,292.50 (if so, LME remains above all six of its averages), whether the $0.50 contango widens or flips back to backwardation, and whether a new stock row breaks the −950-mt-across-eleven-intervals stasis computed in this edition.
  • ⚑ Whether the basis holds its premium remains the single test of the physical column’s strongest evidence, and the levels are 0 and −20. September 4’s +70 premium has a one-session lifespan and today is its first test. Spot above the board (basis ≥ 0) upgrades “downstream is taking metal at higher prices” from a one-day event to a series; a retreat beyond −20 reclassifies the premium as passive dislocation caused by Friday’s board decline. Watch alongside it whether the three South China calibers (Nanhai 24,810, Nanchu 24,520, Chalco South 24,520) stop falling and whether the expected convergence of regional spreads continues.
  • ⚑⚑ New this edition: whether aluminium’s backwardation and alumina’s contango loosen together. The reference numbers are AL2609 − AL2708 at −170 and AO2708 − AO2609 at +164. If aluminium’s spread widens further while alumina’s contango also widens, the combination of “near-term physical tightness plus forward cost inflation” is confirmed as STRUCTURE rather than one session’s accident; if both compress, Friday’s twenty-four-contract split should be demoted to a one-off roll-and-settlement effect. Watch too whether AO2701’s open interest stays above AO2610’s and whether the alumina front month can end its six-session OI decline.
  • ⚑ Geopolitics and energy: whether the US–Iran exchange continues, and Hormuz transit counts. Any further strike or reprisal after September 5, whether Brent holds the $96 line, and any change in the Gulf’s disrupted primary capacity (~2 million mt/yr) are the one variable acting simultaneously on the cost floor and on risk appetite. This brief tracks it as fact and assigns it no directional weight.
  • ⚑ September 8 is the week’s double event and today is its eve: China’s August trade data and Canada’s 25%-to-50% tariff step-up land together. China’s July aluminium product exports at +18.7% y/y are on the ledger and the August print tests whether that held; Canada’s doubling names aluminium rod specifically, landing directly on the “rod oversupply, low processing fees” item. Watch them as a pair. Today’s August FX reserves, September 9 CPI (expected +0.9%) and PPI (expected +3.2%), and September 10 TSF (growth expected to decelerate to ~5%) and new loans (~RMB 500 billion) set the rest of the week’s cadence.

Disclaimer

  • This brief is prepared for internal morning-meeting reference only. Data are drawn from the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s public daily files and third-party mirrors thereof, Westmetall, TradingEconomics, Reuters, NPR, CNBC, Bloomberg, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), Mysteel, CNAL, AL Circle and public company disclosures. Items marked “⚑ / ⊘” are factual data; items marked “(interpretation)” or “(derivation)” are this brief’s judgement or calculation, and the two are distinguished explicitly throughout. Where sources disagree, all calibers are listed in parallel and are NOT reconciled — except where a source’s own page falsifies one of its variants, in which case the falsified caliber is discarded and the discarding is stated. Because no new trading session occurred in this reporting window, all price data are carried forward and each instance is labelled as such; derivations resting on an assumed coefficient (such as the 1.93 t alumina-per-tonne figure) state that assumption before the calculation. This brief does not constitute investment advice and accepts no responsibility for any decision made on the basis of it.