Sep 8, 2026 · Westmetall publishes two rows at once and LME stocks fall to a new low of 244,525t. The data demotion is withdrawn after one edition.

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与本期性质

本期写于 9月8日(周二)上午,早于沪市日盘开盘。本节中的每一个沪市价格、均线、分位与持仓数字,仍为 9月4日数值原样沿用——这是连续第四期没有新的中国收盘价。
⚑ 本期新增,且几乎全部来自伦敦:Westmetall 一次性补发了 **9月4日与 9月7日两行结算价与库存,由此(i)触发上一期所执行降格的撤销,(ii)给出 244,525 吨这一 1990 年序列新低,(iii)给出全程最大单日抽库 −1,450 吨,(iv)迫使本简报修正自己关于该库存序列「几乎纹丝不动」的读数,(v)证实 3,292.50 美元的 TradingEconomics 口径就是 9月4日现货结算价,(vi)使三重比价收敛为唯一一个数字,(vii)使 LME 的 MA5 与 MA10 可由来源自身的行精确重算。**
⚑ 另有新增:9月7日全部五个中国现货口径,且每一个都与本简报沿用三期的 9月4日数据精确对上;一条凭自身涨幅百分比可自我定日的沪铝实时报价;跌破 99 的美元指数;一组内部自洽的 CME FedWatch 概率;一则据报接近完成的伊朗—阿曼霍尔木兹协议;以及六条行业条目。
⊘ 无法取得:9月7日日盘或夜盘的任何权威沪市收盘价、结算价、成交量或持仓数据;SMM 周一(9月7日)社会库存数据,连续第二期缺失,使加速去库的检验第二次被推迟;SMM 9月4日与 9月7日的三地日度数据;上期所周五周度仓单与库存;SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、区域成交升贴水、出货与采购意愿指数、氧化铝指数及中铝五地氧化铝挂牌价(连续第八期登录墙);10月联邦基金利率条,连续第十一期缺失。

⚑⚑ 伦敦:四期空白之后,一次补两天

⚑⚑ **9月4日:现货结算 3,292.50 美元,三月期 3,293.00 美元,库存 244,525 吨。9月7日:现货结算 3,310.00 美元,三月期 3,308.00 美元,库存 244,525 吨。**
⚑⚑ **降格予以撤销。 上一期写在事前的撤销条件是:「只要有一行新的结算价与库存发布,该降格即以书面形式撤销。」现已发布两行。「LME 库存为 1990 年以来最低」由历史引用恢复为当期事实,于此以书面形式记录。**
⊘ 并且要把不好听的一半也说出来:寿命只有一期的降格,反应的是发布延迟而不是数据撤回,说明触发阈值定得过紧,下次应当放宽(观点)。
⚑⚑ 恢复回来的数字比被降格时更低:244,525 吨,较承载该标签时的 245,975 吨再低 **1,450 吨。序列低点不只是恢复,而是被延伸。**
⚑ 价格:9月7日现货结算 **3,310.00 美元,较 9月4日 +17.50(+0.53%),较 9月3日 +7.00(+0.21%)。这是 8月11日以来最高的现货结算价——十八个交易日——并以 2.50 美元越过 8月12日的 3,307.50 美元(推算)。**
⚑ 期限结构一个交易日内翻转:9月4日现货 3,292.50 对三月期 3,293.00,为 **0.50 美元 contango;9月7日现货 3,310.00 对三月期 3,308.00,为 2.00 美元 backwardation。现货涨 17.50,三月期涨 15.00(推算)。**
⚑ 两个独立口径互证:TradingEconomics 9月7日报 **3,311.45 美元(+18.95,+0.58%,月 −0.74%,年 +26.66%),与结算价相差 1.45 美元;另有第三方文本称伦敦「9月7日结算于 3,310 美元附近」。⊘ 世铝网的三月期口径为 3,312.50 美元(+16.50),隐含前值 3,296.00,与 Westmetall 的 3,293.00 相差 3.00,仍未调和。**

⚑⚑ 均线重算,以及一次要记在账上的自我更正

⚑⚑ 由来源自身的行精确重算(推算):MA5 =(3,310.00 + 3,292.50 + 3,303.00 + 3,255.50 + 3,261.00)÷ 5 = **3,284.40;MA10 = 3,248.75。现货 3,310.00 分别高出 25.60 与 61.25。**
⚑⊘ 其余四条均线仍为 9月3日口径,已落后两个观测值,标注为陈旧:MA20 3,252.60、MA30 3,238.88、MA40 3,220.45、MA60 3,230.01,分别被高出 57.40、71.12、89.55、79.99。在此前提下,伦敦位于全部六条均线之上。
⚑⚑ **本简报此前列出却拒绝使用的口径,就是结算价。 TradingEconomics 的 9月4日读数 3,292.50 美元,与 Westmetall 的 9月4日现货结算价分毫不差。上一期将其并列列出,并明确排除在一切均线与分位计算之外。该排除过于保守。 但产生它的方法——绝不把未经确认的口径折入已计算的序列——并没有错。两半都记录在案。**
⚑ 直接收益是比价收敛(推算):在同日配对已知的情况下,24,290 ÷ 3,292.50 = 7.3774** 是 9月4日唯一正确的比价。上一期并列的 7.3539 与 7.3751 并非来自不同市场,而是配错了日期。**
⚑ 同理,SMM 的第五个口径 3,293.50 美元,落在已确认三月期结算价的 0.50 美元之内、现货结算价的 1.00 美元之内——它是一条9月4日的伦敦读数,而不是幻影。

⊘⊘ 沪市:第四期沿用,但有一条可自我定日的实时报价

⊘⊘ 交易所文件、其镜像与六家商业行情服务均已尝试,未能取得 9月7日的任何权威盘面数据。沿用:AL2610 开 24,475、高 24,510、低 24,270、收 24,290、结算 24,375、前结算 24,275;收盘对收盘 −80(−0.33%);成交 151,835(−33.9%);持仓 254,755(−2,092);全复合成交 244,604、持仓 617,604(+2,553)。
⚑⚑ 一条无日期的实时报价读作沪铝主力 **24,405,日内 +0.12%。反解(推算):显示为 +0.12% 者,其前结算价必落在 24,374.5 至 24,377.0 之间,而该区间内唯一的有效跳动价位是 24,375——正是本简报沿用的 9月4日结算价。因此这条报价属于 9月7日交易日,而非 9月8日;容差只允许一个价位,推导是紧的。**
⚑ 由此可得一个条件式结论(推算):若 9月7日确以 24,405 收盘,则 MA5 由 24,189.00 升至(24,405 + 96,870)÷ 5 = **24,255.00。这是条件式的,不是事实。**
⊘ 而基差无法在缺失收盘价的情况下解决:对沿用的 9月4日收盘价 24,290 而言基差为 **+110;对实时口径 24,405 而言基差为 −5。9月4日 +70 升水的首次检验并未在本期落定。**
⊘ 沿用:MA5 24,189.00、MA10 23,996.50、MA20 23,981.75、MA30 23,859.50、MA40 23,693.38、MA60 23,576.67,分别高出 101.00、293.50、308.25、430.50、596.62、713.33;二十日收盘分位 89.7%,六十日 95.8%。沿用:9月4日夜盘开 24,240、高 24,355、低 24,200、末 24,320、均价 24,307、量 52,304。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑⚑ 现货:9月7日五个口径全涨,且与沿用数据逐一对上

⚑⚑ **9月7日现货,五涨零平零跌:上海现货 24,400(+40);有色宝长江 24,410(+50);中原有色 24,410(+50);南海有色 24,860(+50);广东南储 24,570(+50)。**
⚑⚑ 五个恒等式,五个精确闭合(推算):24,360 + 40 = 24,400 ✓;24,360 + 50 = 24,410 ✓(两次);24,810 + 50 = 24,860 ✓;24,520 + 50 = 24,570 ✓。本简报沿用三期的 9月4日现货数据,由此获得独立验证。**
⊘ 但价差停止收敛并再度走阔:南海 − 上海 **460(原 450,+10);南储 − 上海 170(原 160,+10)。连续两期的收敛在此中止。**
⚑ 并且长江较上海高出 10,为本轮首次分化——9月4日两者同为 24,360(推算)。
⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与区域成交升贴水,连续第八期登录墙。

⊘ 氧化铝与合金:本期无任何新数据

⊘ 沿用完整的 9月4日氧化铝收盘曲线,十一个区间单调无一处倒挂:AO2609 2,728 / 2,757 / 2,766 / 2,780 / 2,795 / 2,807 / 2,831 / 2,836 / 2,854 / 2,862 / 2,885 / AO2708 2,892;首尾 contango **+164,为前端的 6.01%,与铝的 −170(−0.70%) 方向相反。**
⊘ 沿用:AO2610 收 2,757、结算 2,748、成交 219,656(+49.0%)、持仓 113,727(−14,117,第六次连降);全复合持仓 447,827;成本口径一 2,718、口径二 2,826.21,曲线首次收在口径二之上者为六个月后的 AO2703(2,831)。
⊘ 沿用:AD2610 收 23,545(−90),仍在其六条均线之上;AD−AL 日内价差 745。四个 ADC12 口径仍未调和:23,900 沿用、SMM 23,950、长江现货铝合金 24,000、长江华东综合 23,615、佛山主流 23,500–23,800;A356.2 为 24,400。

三 · 库存

⚑⚑ 伦敦:恢复、延伸,并推翻本简报自己的流量读数

⚑⚑ **244,525 吨,9月4日与 9月7日两日同值,为 1990 年序列新低,较被降格时的 245,975 吨再低 1,450 吨。降格已撤销。**
⚑⚑ 单日抽库(推算):9月3日 245,975 → 9月4日 244,525 = **−1,450 吨(−0.59%),接近上一期序列中最大单日变动(−500)的三倍。**
⚑⚑ 十三区间流量,重算(推算):8月18日 246,925 → 9月7日 244,525 = **−2,400 吨,−0.97%。逐区间:8/18→19 0、19→20 0、20→21 0、21→24 0、24→25 −100、25→26 0、26→27 0、27→28 −100、28→9/1 0、9/1→2 −500、2→3 −250、3→4 −1,450、4→7 0。十三个区间中八个恰为零;9月4日一天即占全部抽库的 1,450 ÷ 2,400 = 60.4%。**
⊘⚑ **上一期的判断被证伪,本期修正而非辩护。 上一期由 Westmetall 自身十一个区间算出 −950 吨、七个零,并据此写下「既是真实纪录,也几乎纹丝不动」。真实序列是十三个区间 −2,400 吨。该判断在其所掌握的数据上是对的,在实际存在的数据上是错的。一般教训一并记录:在缺失最新观测值的序列上算出的流量,不是流量,而是下界(观点)。**

⊘⊘ 中国:周一数据连续第二期缺失

⊘⊘ **SMM 9月7日(周一)社会库存数据本期仍无法取得。 加速去库的主张——1.55 倍于 8月周均,且仍只建立在一个周度观测值之上——因此第二次被推迟。两次推迟不等于一次确认,本简报不会让该主张因默认而沉淀为事实。**
沿用:全国主流消费地铝锭社会库存 **81.5 万吨(9月3日周四),较周一 −2.2 万吨,较上周四 −3.7 万吨;8/27 85.2 → 8/31 83.7 → 9/3 81.5 三个恒等式全部闭合。**
沿用(速度,推算):3.7 万吨/周 = 8月约 2.3935 万吨的 **1.55 倍、7月约 3.8387 万吨的 96%;自 7月初 113 万吨阶段高点累计去库 31.5 万吨。**
沿用(日度,至 9月3日):三地 9/1 65.95 万 → 9/2 65.15 万(−0.8 万)→ 9/3 64.1 万(−1.05 万);广东 14.3 万、无锡 30.0 万、巩义 19.8 万;覆盖率 78.7%。⊘ 9月4日与 9月7日的日度数据均未取得。
⊘ **新增未调和的交易所口径:第三方数据源读作上期所铝仓库库存 219,874 吨(9月7日),与本简报沿用的 391,498 吨库存、245,510 吨仓单均不吻合。列出,不调和,亦不解读为进一步下降——该口径身份不明。**
沿用:保税区 11.6 万吨(9月3日,上海 8.9 万 + 广东 2.7 万,周环比持平);全国氧化铝库存 727 万吨(+0.8 万);上期所周度铝库存 391,498 吨、仓单 245,510(−28,691,第三方口径第十一周连降);上期所氧化铝周度 323,736 吨(−38,827);两地铝棒 8.9 万吨(9月3日,持平);全国主流铝棒 14.05 万吨(8月31日);铸造合金 2.81 万吨。⊘ Mysteel 80.9 万吨与 SMM 83.7 万吨(均为 8月31日)之间 2.8 万吨的口径差仍未消解。

解读

⚑ 伦敦一侧的库存支撑,本期由「真实但近乎静止」上调为「真实且正在加速」:三周抽库的六成发生在一个交易日,而这个交易日恰好是上一期没有拿到的那一天。这是本期最实质的多头变化(观点)。
⊘ 中国一侧的库存支撑,本期只能记为未刷新,且已连续两期未刷新。81.5 万吨仍指向支撑,但支撑的强度在本期同样无法验证;而未经检验的加速主张,其可信度随推迟次数递减而非递增(观点)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 美元跌破 99

⚑ 美元指数 **98.849,−0.0743(−0.08%),月 −0.96%,年 +1.08%——对周一的 99.087 为单日 −0.238(−0.24%)(推算)。99 关口告破,这是本页最干净、也是唯一无条件利多金属的宏观数据。**
⊘ 但联储向反方向重定价,而且首次内部自洽:CME FedWatch 于 9月7日读作加息 25 个基点 **56%、维持 41.5%、余项 2.5%,合计恰为 100%——这是本简报数周以来第一组能够加总的联储读数。对照 9月4日沿用的约 50.2%,为鹰派重定价约 5.8 个百分点(推算)。⊘ 另有第二个口径读作约 60%。**
⊘ 沿用:8月非农 16.2 万(预期 5.3 万至 5.6 万),失业率 4.1%,7月由 −2.3 万上修至 +2.1 万至 +2.3 万,平均时薪环比 +0.3%、同比仅 +3.1%(本轮最弱)。联储静默期自 9月5日生效,议息日为 **9月16日。⊘ 10月联邦基金利率条连续第十一期缺失。**

⚑⊘ 能源与地缘:一期之内又收窄

⚑⊘ 布伦特 **97.01 美元,−0.15(−0.16%),月 +10.59%,年 +46.12%。来源同时报道:「伊朗表示,与阿曼就管理霍尔木兹海峡航运达成的协议接近完成」,且目前每日仍约有 700 万桶通过该海峡。**
⚑⊘ **本简报上一期把地缘一栏由「已收敛」改回「开放」,一期之后它又收窄了一部分,本期照实记录,而不是让昨天的框架自行留存。同时保留另一组口径:每日 6–8 艘次通行对正常约 85 艘次(9月5日周末版),与「每日 700 万桶」并列列出,不作调和(观点)。**

⊘ 中国:数据周的重头戏落在今天

⊘ **8月进出口数据今日(9月8日)发布:路透调查预期出口同比 +25%、进口同比 +30%(7月为 +27.5%),贸易顺差由 7月的 1,125 亿美元升至约 1,190.5 亿美元。沿用:7月铝材出口同比 +18.7%,本次为其是否延续的检验。**
⊘ **同日,加拿大钢铝反制关税由 25% 上调至 50%,并点名铝杆。 9月9日 CPI(预期 +0.9%)与 PPI(预期 +3.2%);9月10日社融(增速预期减速至约 5%)与新增贷款(约 5,000 亿元)。**

解读

⚑ 宏观一栏本期出现罕见的清晰分歧:美元与联储方向相反,且两者都有确切数字支撑——美元跌破 99 是利多,联储由约 50.2% 重定价至 56% 是利空。二者不相互抵消为「中性」,而是同时成立,本期按此并列记录(观点)。
⊘ 地缘一栏则由「开放」部分收窄回「收敛中」。本简报对该栏继续不赋予方向性权重,但记录:它在两期之内做了两次相反的移动,这本身就说明该栏的信息含量偏低(观点)。

五 · 基本面

⊘ 新增的平衡表条目是利空的,而且是有日期的

⊘ **Wood Mackenzie 将 2026 年全球铝短缺下调至约 90 万吨(另一口径为约 100 万吨),此前预期为 250 万至 300 万吨。该条目对本简报是新的,但其日期为 8月4日,因此带着日期入账,不作为新闻处理。理由包括中东产能恢复快于预期与中国出口放量。**
⊘ **高盛据报预测 2026 年四季度铝价 2,350 美元/吨,基于 2026/27 年转为过剩——较昨日 3,310.00 美元的结算价低约 29%。检索到的文本无日期,因此记录而不赋权,与上一期对 8月17日联储纪要的处理一致。**
⚑ 与之相对,ING 的 Ewa Manthey:「铝受到实物市场紧张,以及对中国季节性需求转强的预期支撑。」
⚑ **一处沿用的冲突在核查后自行消解:那是两个不同的资产。 EGA 的「18%」指阿联酋 Al Taweelah 电解厂至 8月中已重启的电解槽比例;而 25% 与 50% 两个口径指的是 Al Taweelah 氧化铝精炼厂。18% 从未与任何一方冲突。⊘ 25% 对 50% 的精炼厂口径冲突依然存在,未调和(观点)。**

⚑⊘ 供应、贸易与需求

⚑⊘ **欧盟新措施:欧盟正准备以废弃物法规下的授权法案形式,禁止包括铝废料在内的废弃物出口至非经合组织国家,点名中国与印度。双向记录:对中国原铝需求利多(废铝替代减少),对欧盟废铝价格利空。**
⊘ **新西兰挤压材企业(ALENZ)以进口激增 38% 为由要求启动保障措施——这是继泰国 21.94% 新出口商反倾销复审之后,又一条落在中国挤压材出口上的贸易行动。**
⊘ **新增海外供应:Metro Mining 的 Bauxite Hills 以更低单位成本创下产量纪录并扩大客户基础;印尼 Alamtri Resources 的电解厂正在爬产。两者均对成本底与供应端偏空。**
⚑ 背景数据:2026 年上半年,美国自加拿大进口的原铝量,是其以半成品形式出口回加拿大量的 **11.5 倍——这是今日加拿大关税翻倍的量化背景。**
沿用(国内):中国电解铝开工率 98.4%,对 4,500 万吨产能天花板已无弹性;RatingDog 8月制造业 PMI 51.5(六个月高位),统计局 49.8,铝加工综合 PMI 48.7%。周度开工率(至 8月27日):挤压 50.6%(−0.2)、板带 69.2%(持平)、铝箔 70.7%(+0.3)、线缆 63.0%(+0.6),本期无更新。
⊘ 沿用(反向):铝杆过剩持续,加工费低位、绝对库存偏高;两地铝棒 9月3日持平于 8.9 万吨,未跟随铝锭去库——离开铝锭仓库的金属,有一部分是进入了铝棒与铝杆仓库,而不是终端需求。
沿用(成本):9月氟化铝招标 11,500–12,000 元/吨;预焙阳极现货 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745;中铝上半年冶金级氧化铝产量 738 万吨,同比 −14.19%。沿用(利空):日本四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨,环比 −18% 至 −22%,本期无更新亦无反驳。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 9月7日:五个口径全涨,但价差再度走阔

⚑ **华东:上海现货 24,400(+40)。持货商报价上移,与伦敦、与推定的盘面同向。出货意愿偏紧,采购意愿偏稳。**
⚑⊘ **华南:南海/佛山 24,860(+50)、南储 24,570(+50)——两者由上期的下跌转为上涨,但南海 − 上海价差由 450 走阔至 460,南储 − 上海由 160 走阔至 170,连续两期的收敛中止。华南绝对价回升,相对价走弱,两者同时成立(观点)。**
⚑ **华中与长江:中原有色 24,410(+50);有色宝长江 24,410(+50),首次高于上海现货 10 元——9月4日两者同为 24,360。这是本轮第一次出现长江对上海的正价差(推算)。**
⊘ 基差本期无法判定:对 9月4日收盘价为 +110,对实时口径为 −5。9月4日 +70 升水的首次检验被推迟,而不是通过或失败。
⊘ SMM 的出货与采购意愿指数连续第八期不可得;上述判断由价格、涨跌、区域价差与库存行为推得,并非取自 SMM 指数。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 利多因素

⚑⚑ LME 库存 **244,525 吨,为 1990 年序列新低,较被降格时再低 1,450 吨;降格已撤销。**
⚑⚑ 9月4日单日抽库 **−1,450 吨(−0.59%),为全程最大,接近此前最大值的三倍。**
⚑⚑ 十三区间流量 **−2,400 吨(−0.97%),为上一期所算 −950 吨的 2.53 倍;伦敦去库比本简报昨天所说的快得多。**
⚑⚑ 一个交易日贡献了三周抽库的 **60.4%——去库不是均匀渗漏,而是集中发生。**
⚑ 现货结算 **3,310.00 美元(+17.50,+0.53%),为 8月11日以来最高,十八个交易日。**
⚑ 期限结构由 0.50 美元 contango 翻回 **2.00 美元 backwardation,现货涨幅超过三月期。**
⚑ 伦敦位于全部六条均线之上;新算 MA5 3,284.40、MA10 3,248.75 分别被高出 25.60 与 61.25。
⚑⚑ 9月7日中国现货五个口径全部上涨(+40 至 +50),无一持平、无一下跌。
⚑⚑ 且五个口径与沿用的 9月4日数据逐一精确闭合——三期沿用数据获得独立验证。
⚑ 南海/佛山 24,860 恰为 9月4日佛山区间的上沿,即上期的区间顶已成为本期的主流报价。
⚑ 由实时口径反解出的前结算价 **24,375,与沿用的 9月4日结算价在一个跳动价位内吻合——盘面 9月7日上行,与现货、伦敦同向。**
⚑ 条件式:若 9月7日收于 24,405,则 MA5 由 24,189.00 升至 **24,255.00。**
⚑ 美元指数 **98.849,跌破 99,单日 −0.24%、月 −0.96%。**
⚑ ING:铝受实物市场紧张与中国季节性需求转强预期支撑。
⚑⊘ 欧盟拟禁止铝废料出口至非经合组织国家——对中国原铝需求利多。
⚑ 沿用:社会库存 81.5 万吨(9月3日),周环比 −3.7 万吨,为 8月周均的 1.55 倍;累计去库 31.5 万吨。
⚑ 沿用:三地日度 64.1 万吨,降幅由 −0.8 万扩大至 −1.05 万;覆盖率 78.7%。
⚑ 沿用:周度出库 13.54 万吨(+1.22 万),为近四年同期最高——仍是本账上唯一基于量的需求证据。
⚑ 沿用:佛山五周 −6.6 万吨、升水 220 元/吨;巩义五周 −3.5 万吨。
⚑ 沿用:9月4日收于全部六条均线之上 101.00 至 713.33,六条均线同步上行,已连续五个交易日。
⚑ 沿用:全复合持仓 +2,553——是移仓,不是离场。
⚑ 沿用:上期所周度库存第三方口径称为第十一周连降;保税区周环比持平,外部货源未回流。
⚑ 沿用:中国开工率 98.4%,对 4,500 万吨天花板无弹性;中铝上半年氧化铝产量同比 −14.19%。
⚑ 沿用:8月平均时薪同比 +3.1%,为本轮最弱。
⚑ 沿用:氧化铝十二个合约全部收在开盘价之上,曲线为 +164 的完美单调 contango,全部合约高于成本口径一 2,718。
⚑ 沿用(条件式):俄铝四家工厂面临封存、年亏损约 8 亿美元——若执行,对氧化铝成本底利多。
⚑ 沿用:几内亚铝土矿现货 CIF 72–73 美元/干吨,运费近 40 美元;SMM 预计 9月上半月延续去库。

⊘ 利空因素

⊘⊘ **本简报上一期的流量判断被证伪:「几乎纹丝不动」建立在缺失最新观测值的序列上。方法可靠性本期记为下降,这是三期之内的第三次自我更正。**
⊘ 上一期排除 3,292.50 美元口径的做法过于保守——它就是结算价。谨慎在此处是有代价的。
⊘⊘ 无法取得 9月7日的任何权威沪市盘面数据,Section 1 **第四期沿用;基差、MA5 检验与两分支剧本全部无法判定。**
⊘⊘ SMM 周一库存数据连续第二期缺失,加速去库的主张第二次未受检验。
⊘ 9月4日与 9月7日的三地日度数据、上期所周五周度仓单数据同样未能取得。
⊘ **新增交易所口径 219,874 吨(9月7日)与沿用的 391,498 / 245,510 均不吻合,身份不明。**
⊘ 联储由约 50.2% 重定价至 **56%,鹰派约 5.8 个百分点;另一口径读作约 60%;静默期至 9月16日,无新指引。**
⊘ **Wood Mackenzie 将 2026 年全球短缺下调至约 90 万吨(另一口径约 100 万吨),此前为 250 万至 300 万吨——本账上最实质的平衡表利空,日期为 8月4日。**
⊘ 高盛据报预测 2026 年四季度 **2,350 美元/吨,较昨日结算价低约 29%(无日期,记录不赋权)。**
⊘ 霍尔木兹一栏由「开放」部分收窄:伊朗—阿曼协议据报接近完成,每日仍约 700 万桶通行——上一期重新打开的尾部风险,一期之后自行收窄了一部分。
⊘ 华南与华中相对价差停止收敛并再度走阔(南海 460、南储 170,各 +10)。
⊘ **加拿大 25%→50% 今日生效并点名铝杆;新西兰要求对进口激增 38% 启动保障措施;泰国 21.94% 复审在途。三条全部落在本简报最弱的一栏上。**
⊘ 中国 8月进出口今日发布,7月铝材出口 +18.7% 的延续性未经检验;9月10日社融增速预期减速至约 5%。
⊘ 沿用:9月4日十二个铝合约全部收在开盘价之下(−100 至 −220),其中三个开在自身最高价。
⊘ 沿用:铝曲线 **backwardation −170(−0.70%),2703–2708 尾部近乎持平——盘面几乎不为远期紧张定价。**
⊘ 沿用:按假设的 1.93 吨系数,冶炼毛利代理沿曲线压缩 **415.55 元/吨;远端流动性仅 2,544 手(占复合成交 1.04%)。**
⊘ 沿用:氧化铝曲线首次收在成本口径二 2,826.21 之上者为 AO2703——成本通胀被定价为 **2027 年而非 2026 年的事件;氧化铝主力持仓第六次连降 −14,117,自 8月27日以来 −167,223(−59.5%)。**
⊘ 沿用:9月4日收盘 24,290 恰回到 8月12日收盘价;24,490 与 24,510 为已确认阻力;MA5 余量仅 101.00;成交量 151,835 较前一日六十日纪录低 33.9%。
⊘ 沿用:铝杆过剩、加工费低位、绝对库存偏高;两地铝棒 9月3日持平,未跟随铝锭去库。
⊘ 沿用:Mysteel 80.9 万吨与 SMM 83.7 万吨(8月31日)之间 2.8 万吨的口径差未消解。
⊘ 沿用:日本四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨(环比 −18% 至 −22%),仍是本账上最硬的实物利空。
⊘ 新增供应:Metro Mining 铝土矿产量创纪录且成本下降;印尼 Alamtri 电解厂爬产。
⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、区域升贴水、意愿指数、氧化铝指数与中铝五地挂牌价,连续第八期登录墙;10月联邦基金利率条连续第十一期缺失。

八 · 一句话观点

熄灯四期的那一栏亮了,而且亮得比它欠的更多:Westmetall 一次补发 9月4日与 9月7日两行,上一期按事先写明的条件所执行的降格,于本期按同一条件撤销——「LME 库存为 1990 年以来最低」由历史引用恢复为当期事实;但恢复回来的数字更低,244,525 吨,较被降格时再低 1,450 吨,序列低点不是恢复而是延伸;更关键的是,9月3日至 9月4日单日抽库 **−1,450 吨(−0.59%),接近此前序列最大单日变动的三倍,使十三区间流量由上一期算出的 −950 吨改写为 −2,400 吨(−0.97%),而这一天独占全部抽库的 60.4%——因此上一期「既是真实纪录,也几乎纹丝不动」的判断,在其所掌握的数据上是对的、在实际存在的数据上是错的,本期修正而非辩护,并一并记下那条一般教训:在缺失最新观测值的序列上算出的流量不是流量,而是下界;价格同向,现货结算 3,310.00 美元(+17.50,+0.53%),为 8月11日以来十八个交易日最高,期限结构由 0.50 美元 contango 翻回 2.00 美元 backwardation,新算 MA5 3,284.40 与 MA10 3,248.75 均被越过,伦敦位于全部六条均线之上(其中四条为 9月3日口径,已标注陈旧);同一批数据还结清了一笔账——上一期并列列出却明确拒绝使用的 TradingEconomics 口径 3,292.50 美元,就是 9月4日现货结算价,分毫不差,该排除过于保守,而产生它的方法并没有错,两半都记录,直接收益是三重比价收敛为唯一正确的 7.3774;中国给的少但给得干净:9月7日五个现货口径全部上涨(+40 至 +50),无一持平无一下跌,且五个恒等式与沿用三期的 9月4日数据逐一精确闭合,反过来验证了那批沿用数据,代价是华南价差停止收敛并各自走阔 10、长江首次高出上海 10;中国没有给出的是盘面与库存——交易所文件、镜像与六家行情服务均未能取得 9月7日的任何权威沪市数据,Section 1 第四期沿用,唯一可得的推断是一条无日期实时报价 24,405 / +0.12%,反解出的前结算价区间内唯一有效价位恰为 24,375,即沿用的 9月4日结算价,足以把该报价定日到 9月7日并断定盘面上行,却不足以判定基差(对 9月4日收盘为 +110,对实时口径为 −5),因此 +70 升水的首次检验仍然悬空;SMM 周一库存则连续第二期缺失,使 1.55 倍加速去库这一仍只建立在一个周度观测值上的主张第二次被推迟,而两次推迟不是一次确认;宏观出现罕见的清晰分歧,美元跌破 99 报 98.849(单日 −0.24%、月 −0.96%),是本页唯一无条件利多的数据,而 CME FedWatch 于 9月7日读作加息 56%、维持 41.5%、余项 2.5%——数周以来第一组能够加总的联储读数——较 9月4日的约 50.2% 鹰派重定价约 5.8 个百分点,二者不抵消为中性而是同时成立;地缘一栏则在被本简报重新打开一期之后又部分收窄,伊朗—阿曼霍尔木兹协议据报接近完成、每日仍约 700 万桶通行,布伦特 97.01 美元(−0.16%,月 +10.59%),该栏两期之内做了两次相反移动,这本身说明其信息含量偏低;基本面新增三条,两条偏空:Wood Mackenzie 将 2026 年全球短缺由 250 万至 300 万吨下调至约 90 万吨(带 8月4日 日期入账,不作新闻处理)、高盛无日期的 2,350 美元/吨四季度预测(记录不赋权),以及一条真正的调和——EGA 的「18%」指电解厂电解槽、25% 与 50% 指氧化铝精炼厂,是两个不同资产,18% 从未冲突,而 25% 对 50% 的精炼厂冲突依然存在;综合而言,伦敦一栏在一次更新中被彻底改写(恢复、延伸、创十八个交易日新高结算、翻回 backwardation,并被证明去库速度是本简报昨天所说的 2.53 倍),中国现货一栏五涨并验证了沿用数据,中国盘面与库存两栏仍然缺席,美元在 99 之下而联储在 56%,霍尔木兹的尾部在被拉宽一期之后又收窄(观点)。**

九 · 今日(9月8日)日盘与夜盘关注清单

⚑⚑ 首要事项是把缺了四期的那个数字拿回来:9月7日与 9月8日的沪市收盘价、结算价、成交量与持仓。 在拿到之前,基差、MA5 检验与两分支剧本全部处于无法判定状态,这是本简报当前最大的结构性缺口。参考位不变:24,320 是最后一个确认盘面价,24,290 是第一道检验,24,189.00 的 MA5 只剩 101.00 余量。若 9月7日确以 24,405 附近收盘,则 MA5 升至约 24,255.00,余量问题自动缓解;若收在 24,290 之下,则 8月3日以来的这一轮上行需要重新评估。持仓请看全复合总数,不要只看主力。
⚑⚑ 第二事项仍是 SMM 周一库存,而且它已经迟到两期。 判别区间不变:80.0 万至 80.6 万吨(较 9月3日再去 0.9 万至 1.5 万吨)将把加速去库由单一观测值升级为序列;持平或回升至 82.0 万吨以上,则将该读数降级为单周噪音,本简报届时会明确写下这一降级。同时关注三地日度是否维持 −0.8 万至 −1.05 万的节奏,以及 9月4日、9月7日两天的日度数据是否补发。
⚑⚑ 第三事项是伦敦能否把 244,525 变成一个趋势而不是一个事件。 9月4日一天占了三周抽库的 60.4%,这意味着两种可能:要么是集中交仓的一次性动作,要么是新一轮加速的起点。判别方法很简单——看 9月8日那一行。再出现一次三位数以上的抽库,则为趋势;回到连续零变动,则 9月4日是事件。同时关注 2.00 美元的 backwardation 是走阔、收窄还是翻回 contango,以及现货结算能否站稳 3,307.50(8月12日)之上。
⚑ 第四事项是基差与价差的方向能否统一。 9月7日出现了一个反常组合:绝对价五个口径全涨,相对价差却全部走阔(南海 460、南储 170,长江首次高于上海 10)。若今日绝对价继续上行而价差开始收敛,则可判定为需求驱动;若价差继续走阔,则更可能是华南供应偏紧的局部现象,而非全国性需求改善(观点)。基差本身以 0 与 −20 为界。
⚑ 第五事项是今天同时落地的两件贸易事:中国 8月进出口与加拿大 25%→50%。 出口预期 +25%、进口 +30%、顺差约 1,190.5 亿美元;铝材出口能否延续 7月的 +18.7% 是关键,因为它同时决定「出口消化产量」与「海外贸易壁垒」两条线的相对强弱。加拿大的翻倍点名铝杆,直接落在本账上「铝杆过剩、加工费低位」这一条最弱的条目上。两者请作为一对来看。
⚑ 第六事项是美元与联储的分歧能否维持。 美元 98.849 已跌破 99,联储在 56%。这两者通常同向,本期反向;关注今日美元能否守住 99 之下,以及是否出现第三个 FedWatch 口径把 56% 与 60% 之间的差距收拢。静默期至 9月16日,不会有官方指引,因此价格本身就是唯一的信号。
⚑ 第七事项是氧化铝:它已经两期没有任何新数据。参考数字不变:AO2610 收 2,757、持仓 113,727(第六次连降)、曲线 +164 的单调 contango、成本口径一 2,718 与口径二 2,826.21。关注持仓连降能否中止、AO2701 的 150,947 手是否仍为全场最大,以及现货是否跟随盘面上行——氧化铝成本一栏是当前唯一一条既利多铝价成本底、又利空冶炼利润的双向变量。

免责声明

本简报仅供内部晨会参考。数据来源包括上海期货交易所公开日报及其第三方镜像、Westmetall、TradingEconomics、CME FedWatch、路透、世铝网(CNAL)、AL Circle、Mysteel、SMM(上海有色网)、Wood Mackenzie、ING、高盛公开引述及上市公司公开披露。标注「⚑ / ⊘」者为事实数据;标注「(观点)」或「(推算)」者为本简报的判断或计算,二者在全文中明确区分。凡来源之间存在分歧,一律并列列出且不作调和——除非某来源自身的页面证伪了其中一个口径,此时该口径予以弃用并明示。本期沪市所有价格数据均为沿用,每一处均已标注;凡建立在假设系数之上的推算(如 1.93 吨氧化铝/吨铝),均在计算前声明该假设。本简报同时记录了自身上一期一处被证伪的推导与一处过于保守的排除,以便读者据以校准本简报的方法可靠性。本简报不构成投资建议,亦不对任何据此作出的决策承担责任。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and the nature of this edition

Written the morning of Tuesday, September 8, BEFORE the SHFE day session opens. Every SHFE price, moving average, percentile and open-interest figure in this section is still the September 4 value — the FOURTH consecutive edition with no new Chinese close.
⚑ NEW this edition, and it is almost all London: Westmetall published BOTH the September 4 and the September 7 settlement-and-stock rows in a single update, which (i) triggers the WITHDRAWAL of the demotion executed one edition ago, (ii) supplies a new 1990-series stock low of 244,525 mt, (iii) supplies the largest single-session draw of the run at −1,450 mt, (iv) forces a REVISION of this brief’s own “nearly motionless” reading of that series, (v) CONFIRMS the $3,292.50 TradingEconomics caliber as the exact September 4 settlement, (vi) collapses the three-way ratio spread to one number, and (vii) allows LME MA5 and MA10 to be recomputed exactly from the source’s own rows.
⚑ ALSO NEW: all five Chinese spot calibers for September 7, each reconciling EXACTLY against the September 4 set carried for three editions; a live SHFE quote whose own percentage dates itself; a dollar index below 99; an internally coherent CME FedWatch set; an Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement reported near completion; and six industry items.
⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE: any authoritative SHFE close, settlement, volume or open-interest figure for the September 7 day or night session; SMM’s Monday September 7 social-inventory print, missing for a SECOND consecutive edition, which defers the acceleration test a second time; SMM’s September 4 and September 7 three-region daily series; the SHFE Friday weekly warehouse and warrant print; SMM’s absolute A00, regional premia, sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings (login-walled for an EIGHTH edition); and the October fed funds strip, absent for an ELEVENTH edition.

⚑⚑ London: four blank editions end with two rows at once

⚑⚑ **September 4: cash settlement $3,292.50, 3-month $3,293.00, stock 244,525 mt. September 7: cash $3,310.00, 3-month $3,308.00, stock 244,525 mt.**
⚑⚑ **THE DEMOTION IS WITHDRAWN. The reversal condition was written in advance and in full: “one new settlement-and-stock row publishes and the demotion is withdrawn, in writing.” Two published. “LME stocks are the lowest since 1990” is restored from HISTORICAL CITATION to CURRENT FACT, here and in writing.
⊘ And the unflattering half is stated too: a demotion with a ONE-EDITION lifespan was reacting to a **publication lag, not to a withdrawal of data. The trigger was set too tight and the threshold should be wider next time (interpretation).**
⚑⚑ The restored number is **LOWER than the one that was demoted: 244,525 mt against 245,975 mt, 1,450 mt below the figure that carried the label. The series low is not merely reinstated — it is extended.**
⚑ PRICE: cash settled **$3,310.00 on September 7, +$17.50 (+0.53%) against September 4 and +$7.00 (+0.21%) against September 3. That is the highest cash settlement since August 11 — eighteen sessions — and it clears August 12’s $3,307.50 by $2.50 (derivation).**
⚑ STRUCTURE flipped inside one session: September 4 printed cash $3,292.50 against 3-month $3,293.00, a **$0.50 CONTANGO; September 7 printed cash $3,310.00 against 3-month $3,308.00, a $2.00 BACKWARDATION. Cash gained $17.50 against the 3-month’s $15.00 (derivation).**
⚑ Two independent calibers corroborate within $1.45 and $2.50: TradingEconomics reads **$3,311.45 at September 7 (+$18.95, +0.58%; month −0.74%, year +26.66%), and a third source separately describes London as “settling around $3,310 on September 7”. ⊘ CNAL’s 3-month caliber of $3,312.50 (+$16.50) implies a prior of $3,296.00 against Westmetall’s $3,293.00 — a $3.00 gap that still reconciles with nothing.**

⚑⚑ Averages recomputed — and one correction that has to be entered on this brief’s own ledger

⚑⚑ Recomputed EXACTLY from the source’s own rows (derivation): **MA5 = (3,310.00 + 3,292.50 + 3,303.00 + 3,255.50 + 3,261.00) ÷ 5 = $3,284.40; MA10 = $3,248.75. Cash at $3,310.00 clears them by 25.60 and 61.25.**
⚑⊘ The other four averages are still on a September 3 basis, now two observations stale, and are labelled as such: MA20 $3,252.60, MA30 $3,238.88, MA40 $3,220.45, MA60 $3,230.01, cleared by 57.40, 71.12, 89.55 and 79.99. **On that qualification, London is above all six.**
⚑⚑ **THE CALIBER THIS BRIEF LISTED AND REFUSED TO USE WAS THE SETTLEMENT. TradingEconomics’ September 4 reading of $3,292.50 is Westmetall’s September 4 cash settlement to the cent. The prior edition listed it in parallel and explicitly excluded it from every average and percentile. That exclusion was over-cautious. The method behind it — never fold an unconfirmed caliber into a computed series — was not wrong. Both halves are recorded, because recording only the flattering half would be worthless.**
⚑ The immediate benefit is convergence (derivation): with the correct same-date pair known, **24,290 ÷ $3,292.50 = 7.3774 is the ONLY correct September 4 ratio. The 7.3539 and 7.3751 figures listed in parallel yesterday were not different markets — they were dated to the wrong session.**
⚑ On the same logic SMM’s fifth caliber of $3,293.50 lands within $0.50 of the confirmed 3-month and $1.00 of the confirmed cash. **It was a September 4 London reading, not a phantom. The five-caliber London spread largely dissolves; only CNAL’s implied $3,296.00 survives it.**

⊘⊘ SHFE: a fourth carried edition — but one live quote dates itself

⊘⊘ The exchange file, its mirrors and six commercial quote services were all attempted; **no authoritative September 7 board data could be obtained. CARRIED: AL2610 open 24,475, high 24,510, low 24,270, close 24,290, settlement 24,375, prior settlement 24,275; close-to-close −80 (−0.33%); volume 151,835 (−33.9%); OI 254,755 (−2,092); complex volume 244,604 and complex OI 617,604 (+2,553).**
⚑⚑ An undated live quote reads SHFE aluminium main **24,405, +0.12% intraday. Solving backwards (derivation): a DISPLAYED +0.12% admits a prior settlement between 24,374.5 and 24,377.0, and the ONLY valid tick in that band is 24,375 — exactly the carried September 4 settlement. The quote therefore belongs to the September 7 trading day, not September 8, and the tolerance admits one price. The derivation is tight.**
⚑ One conditional result follows (derivation): if September 7 closed at 24,405, MA5 rises from 24,189.00 to (24,405 + 96,870) ÷ 5 = **24,255.00. That is CONDITIONAL, not a fact.**
⊘ And one thing does NOT follow: the basis cannot be resolved without the missing close. Against the carried September 4 close of 24,290 it is **+110; against the live caliber of 24,405 it is −5. The +70 premium’s first test is not settled in this edition.**
CARRIED: MA5 24,189.00, MA10 23,996.50, MA20 23,981.75, MA30 23,859.50, MA40 23,693.38, MA60 23,576.67 — above all six by 101.00, 293.50, 308.25, 430.50, 596.62 and 713.33; 20-session close percentile 89.7%, 60-session 95.8%. CARRIED night session: AL2610 open 24,240, high 24,355, low 24,200, last 24,320, VWAP 24,307, volume 52,304.

⚑⚑ Spot: five calibers, five gains — and every one reconciles to the carried set

⚑⚑ **SEPTEMBER 7 SPOT, FIVE UP, NONE FLAT, NONE LOWER: Shanghai spot 24,400 (+40); Changjiang 24,410 (+50); Zhongyuan 24,410 (+50); Nanhai/Foshan 24,860 (+50); Guangdong Nanchu 24,570 (+50).**
⚑⚑ Five identities, five exact closes (derivation): 24,360 + 40 = 24,400 ✓; 24,360 + 50 = 24,410 ✓ (twice); 24,810 + 50 = 24,860 ✓; 24,520 + 50 = 24,570 ✓. **The September 4 spot set this brief carried for three editions is thereby independently VERIFIED.**
⊘ But the spreads stopped narrowing and **widened: Nanhai − Shanghai 460 (was 450, +10); Nanchu − Shanghai 170 (was 160, +10). Two sessions of convergence end here.**
⚑ And Changjiang printed **10 ABOVE Shanghai spot — the first divergence of the run, after the two were identical at 24,360 on September 4 (derivation).**
⚑ Nanhai/Foshan’s 24,860 is EXACTLY the top of the September 4 Foshan range: yesterday’s range top is today’s mainstream quote.
⊘ SMM’s absolute A00 and its regional transaction premia are login-walled for an EIGHTH consecutive edition.

⊘ Alumina and alloy: no new data of any kind this edition

⊘ CARRIED, the complete September 4 alumina close curve, monotonic across eleven intervals with no inversion: AO2609 2,728 / 2,757 / 2,766 / 2,780 / 2,795 / 2,807 / 2,831 / 2,836 / 2,854 / 2,862 / 2,885 / AO2708 2,892. Front-to-tail contango **+164 (6.01%) against aluminium’s −170 (−0.70%) on the same session.**
⊘ CARRIED: AO2610 close 2,757, settlement 2,748, volume 219,656 (+49.0%), OI 113,727 (−14,117, a sixth consecutive decline); complex OI 447,827; cost caliber one 2,718 and cost caliber two 2,826.21, with the curve first closing above caliber two only at AO2703 (2,831), six months out.
⊘ CARRIED: AD2610 23,545 (−90), still above all six of its averages; the AD−AL day spread is 745. Four ADC12 calibers remain unreconciled: 23,900 carried, SMM 23,950, Changjiang spot alloy 24,000, Changjiang composite East China 23,615, Foshan mainstream 23,500–23,800; A356.2 at 24,400.

3 · Inventory

⚑⚑ London: restored, extended — and it overturns this brief’s own flow reading

⚑⚑ **244,525 mt at BOTH September 4 and September 7, a NEW low on the 1990 series, 1,450 mt below the 245,975 mt that carried the label when it was demoted. The demotion is withdrawn.**
⚑⚑ THE SINGLE-SESSION DRAW (derivation): September 3 245,975 → September 4 244,525 = **−1,450 mt (−0.59%), nearly three times the largest move in the eleven-interval series computed yesterday (−500).**
⚑⚑ THE THIRTEEN-INTERVAL FLOW, RECOMPUTED (derivation): August 18 246,925 → September 7 244,525 = **−2,400 mt, −0.97%. Interval detail: Aug 18→19 0, 19→20 0, 20→21 0, 21→24 0, 24→25 −100, 25→26 0, 26→27 0, 27→28 −100, 28→Sep 1 0, Sep 1→2 −500, 2→3 −250, 3→4 −1,450, 4→7 0. EIGHT of thirteen intervals are exactly zero, and September 4 alone is 1,450 ÷ 2,400 = 60.4% of the entire draw.**
⊘⚑ **THE PRIOR EDITION’S VERDICT IS FALSIFIED, AND IT IS REVISED HERE RATHER THAN DEFENDED. Yesterday’s derivation, computed from Westmetall’s own eleven published intervals, was −950 mt with seven zeros, and the verdict written on it was that the hardest bullish number on this ledger was “a real record AND a nearly motionless one”. The true series is −2,400 mt across thirteen intervals. The verdict was correct on the data it had and is wrong on the data that exists. The general lesson is recorded with it: a flow computed on a series missing its most recent observations is not a flow, it is a lower bound (interpretation).**

⊘⊘ China: the Monday print is missing for a SECOND edition

⊘⊘ **SMM’s Monday September 7 social-inventory print was again not retrievable. The acceleration claim — destocking at 1.55× the August pace, still resting on ONE weekly observation — is therefore DEFERRED TWICE. Two deferrals are not a confirmation, and this brief will not let the claim age into fact by default.**
CARRIED: national ingot social inventory **815,000 mt at Thursday September 3, −22,000 vs Monday and −37,000 vs the prior Thursday; the chain Aug 27 852,000 → Aug 31 837,000 → Sept 3 815,000 closes on all three identities with no rounding gap.**
CARRIED (pace, derivation): 37,000 mt/week = **1.55× August’s ~23,935 and 96% of July’s ~38,387; cumulative draw from the early-July 1.13 million mt phase high is 315,000 mt.**
CARRIED (daily): three-region Sept 1 659,500 → Sept 2 651,500 (−8,000) → Sept 3 641,000 (−10,500); Guangdong 143,000, Wuxi 300,000, Gongyi 198,000; coverage 78.7%. ⊘ Neither the September 4 nor the September 7 daily print was retrievable.
⊘ **A NEW UNRECONCILED EXCHANGE CALIBER: a third-party feed reads SHFE aluminium warehouse stock 219,874 mt at September 7, against the 391,498 mt warehouse and 245,510 mt warrant figures carried here. Listed, NOT reconciled, and NOT read as a further decline — the caliber is unidentified.**
CARRIED: two-region billet 89,000 mt at Sept 3 (unchanged); national mainstream billet 140,500 mt (Aug 31); cast alloy 28,100 mt; bonded 116,000 mt at Sept 3 (flat w/w); national alumina inventory 7.27 million mt (+8,000); SHFE weekly warehouse 391,498 mt with warrants 245,510 (−28,691), an eleventh consecutive weekly decline on a third-party caliber; SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827); SMM’s August 27 regional detail — Foshan 153,000 (−66,000 over five weeks, premiums 220 yuan/mt), Wuxi 326,000, Gongyi 209,000 (−35,000); weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt (+12,200), the highest for the same period in nearly four years. ⊘ The Mysteel 809,000 vs SMM 837,000 spread at August 31 is undissolved.

Interpretation

⚑ The LONDON inventory column is **UPGRADED this edition from “a real record, nearly motionless” to “a real record, and drawing faster than this brief said” — 60.4% of a three-week draw landed on one session, and that session is precisely the one the prior edition did not have. This is the edition’s most substantive bullish change (interpretation).**
⊘ The CHINESE inventory column can only be recorded as **not refreshed, for a second consecutive edition. 815,000 mt still points to support, but the STRENGTH of that support is again untestable — and an untested acceleration claim loses credibility with each deferral rather than gaining it (interpretation).**

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ The dollar broke 99

⚑ DXY **98.849, −0.0743 (−0.08%), month −0.96%, year +1.08% — against Monday’s 99.087, a session move of −0.238 (−0.24%) (derivation). The 99 handle is gone, and this is the cleanest and the only unconditionally bullish macro datum on the page.**
⊘ The Fed repriced the other way, and for the first time it did so **coherently: CME FedWatch at September 7 reads a 25 bp hike at 56%, hold at 41.5% and a residual of 2.5% — summing to 100%, which no Fed reading in this brief has done for weeks. Against the ~50.2% carried at September 4, that is a hawkish repricing of ~5.8 points post-payrolls (derivation). ⊘ A second caliber reads ~60%.**
CARRIED: August payrolls 162,000 against 53,000–56,000 expected, unemployment 4.1%, July restated from −23,000 to +21,000–23,000, average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m and only +3.1% y/y, the softest of the cycle. The blackout took effect September 5; the FOMC decides **September 16. ⊘ The October fed funds strip is missing for an ELEVENTH edition.**

⚑⊘ Energy and geopolitics: the tail narrowed within one edition of being widened

⚑⊘ Brent **$97.01, −$0.15 (−0.16%), month +10.59%, year +46.12%. The source separately reports that “Iran said an agreement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was nearing completion”, and that roughly 7 million bpd is still transiting.**
⚑⊘ **One edition after this brief moved the geopolitical line from “converged” back to “OPEN”, it moves part-way back, and the brief says so rather than letting yesterday’s framing stand by default. The other caliber is retained in parallel and not reconciled: 6–8 transits a day against a normal ~85 (September 5 weekend edition) alongside “7 million bpd” (interpretation).**

⊘ China: the data week’s heaviest day is today

⊘ **China’s August trade data lands TODAY: exports expected +25% y/y, imports +30% (from July’s +27.5%), and the surplus expected to widen to USD 119.05 billion from July’s USD 112.5 billion. July aluminium product exports at +18.7% y/y are on the ledger and today tests whether that held.**
⊘ **The same day, Canada’s steel and aluminium counter-tariffs step from 25% to 50%, with aluminium rod named. September 9 brings CPI (expected +0.9%) and PPI (expected +3.2%); September 10 brings TSF (growth expected to DECELERATE to ~5%) and new loans (~RMB 500 billion).**

Interpretation

⚑ The macro column shows an unusually **clean disagreement this edition: the dollar and the Fed point in OPPOSITE directions and both have hard numbers behind them — DXY below 99 is bullish, a repricing from ~50.2% to 56% is bearish. These do not cancel into “neutral”; both are true simultaneously, and they are logged that way (interpretation).**
⊘ The geopolitical line moves from “open” part-way back to “converging”. This brief continues to assign it **no directional weight, and notes that a column which has moved in two opposite directions in two editions is, by that fact alone, low in information content (interpretation).**

5 · Fundamentals

⊘ The new balance-sheet item is bearish — and it is dated

⊘ **Wood Mackenzie cut its 2026 global aluminium deficit to ~900,000 mt (a second caliber says ~1 million mt) from a prior 2.5–3 million mt, citing faster-than-expected Middle East recovery and higher Chinese exports. This is NEW TO THIS BRIEF and dated AUGUST 4. It is logged with that date attached rather than presented as fresh news.**
⊘ **Goldman Sachs is reported projecting USD 2,350/mt in Q4 2026 on a 2026/27 surplus — roughly 29% below the $3,310.00 settled yesterday. The retrieved text is undated, so it is recorded and NOT weighted, the same treatment the August 17 Fed note received one edition ago.**
⚑ Against those, ING’s Ewa Manthey: **“Aluminium is supported by physical market tightness and expectations of firmer seasonal demand in China.”**
⚑ **ONE CARRIED CONFLICT DISSOLVES ON INSPECTION — IT WAS TWO DIFFERENT ASSETS. EGA’s “18%” figure describes reduction cells at the Al Taweelah SMELTER restarted by mid-August. The 25% and 50% calibers describe the Al Taweelah ALUMINA REFINERY. A reduction cell is not a refinery, so the 18% never conflicted with either. ⊘ The 25% vs 50% REFINERY conflict survives, unreconciled (interpretation).**

⚑⊘ Supply, trade and demand

⚑⊘ **NEW EU MEASURE: the EU is preparing a delegated act under its waste regulation to ban waste exports, aluminium scrap included, to non-OECD countries, with China and India named. Logged on both sides: bullish for Chinese PRIMARY demand through reduced scrap substitution, bearish for EU scrap values.**
⊘ **NEW TRADE ACTION: New Zealand’s extruders (ALENZ) are seeking safeguard measures with imports up 38% — a second live action on Chinese extrusion exports alongside Thailand’s provisional 21.94% new-exporter review.**
⊘ **NEW OVERSEAS SUPPLY: Metro Mining reports record Bauxite Hills output on lower unit costs and a broader customer base; PT Alamtri Resources’ Indonesian smelter is ramping. Both are bearish for the cost floor and the supply side respectively.**
⚑ CONTEXT for today’s tariff step-up: in H1 2026 the US imported **11.5× more primary aluminium from Canada than it exported back in semi-fabricated form.**
CARRIED (domestic): Chinese primary aluminium operating rate 98.4%, no elasticity against the 45 million mt ceiling; RatingDog August manufacturing PMI 51.5 (six-month high), NBS 49.8, aluminium processing composite PMI 48.7%. Weekly operating rates to August 27 — extrusion 50.6% (−0.2), plate/sheet/strip 69.2% (flat), foil 70.7% (+0.3), wire and cable 63.0% (+0.6). No update this edition.
⊘ CARRIED (the other way): aluminium rod oversupply persists with processing fees low and absolute inventory elevated; two-region billet was unchanged at 89,000 mt on September 3 and did NOT follow the ingot draw — part of the metal leaving ingot warehouses is arriving in rod and billet warehouses rather than in finished demand.
CARRIED (cost): September aluminium fluoride tenders RMB 11,500–12,000/mt; prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 on acceptance; Chalco H1 metallurgical alumina output 7.38 million mt, −14.19% y/y. CARRIED (bearish): Japanese Q4 premium offers USD 310–325/mt, −18% to −22% q/q, with no update and no rebuttal.
CARRIED forward-supply ledger: Rusal’s Indonesian bauxite-alumina complex (Prabowo, EEF Vladivostok, September 3); Rusal seeking Kremlin support for four plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of annual losses; Rusal’s 2.1 million mt alumina mothball proposal and the SUBR mine; Guinea’s ~150 million mt/yr export cap target (−25%); Rio Tinto Yarwun −1.2 million mt/yr from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut of 200,000–300,000 mt; Alunorte back to full; Qatalum ~60% of nameplate; Alba lines 1–3 down (19%); Asia H1 alumina exports 7.05 million mt (+27.36% y/y); operating capacity 95.90 million mt/yr against a ~99 million mt/yr trade caliber, unreconciled.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ September 7: five calibers up, but the relative spreads widened again

⚑ **East China: Shanghai spot 24,400 (+40). Holders lifted offers in line with London and with the inferred board. Shipment willingness firm (reluctant selling); purchasing willingness steady.**
⚑⊘ **South China: Nanhai/Foshan 24,860 (+50) and Nanchu 24,570 (+50) both turned higher after falling last session — but Nanhai − Shanghai widened from 450 to 460 and Nanchu − Shanghai from 160 to 170, ending two sessions of convergence. South China is stronger in absolute terms and weaker in relative terms, and both are true (interpretation).**
⚑ **Central China and the Yangtze: Zhongyuan 24,410 (+50); Changjiang 24,410 (+50), printing 10 above Shanghai spot for the first time in this run after the two stood identical at 24,360 on September 4 (derivation).**
⊘ The basis **cannot be judged this edition: +110 against the carried September 4 close, −5 against the live caliber. The +70 premium’s first test is deferred, not passed and not failed.**
⊘ SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices are unavailable for an EIGHTH consecutive edition; the judgements above are inferred from price, change, regional spreads and inventory behaviour, NOT from SMM’s indices.

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

⚑⚑ LME stocks **244,525 mt, a NEW 1990-series low, 1,450 mt below the figure that was demoted; the demotion is withdrawn.**
⚑⚑ September 4’s single-session draw of **−1,450 mt (−0.59%) is the largest of the run and nearly three times the previous maximum.**
⚑⚑ The thirteen-interval flow is **−2,400 mt (−0.97%), 2.53× the −950 mt this brief computed yesterday — London is destocking materially faster than stated one edition ago.**
⚑⚑ One session did **60.4% of three weeks’ draw: destocking is arriving in concentrated blocks, not as an even seep.**
⚑ Cash settled **$3,310.00 (+$17.50, +0.53%), the highest in eighteen sessions.**
⚑ The curve flipped from a $0.50 contango to a **$2.00 backwardation, with cash outpacing the 3-month.**
⚑ London is above all six averages; newly exact MA5 $3,284.40 and MA10 $3,248.75 are cleared by 25.60 and 61.25.
⚑⚑ **ALL FIVE Chinese spot calibers rose on September 7 (+40 to +50) — none flat, none lower.**
⚑⚑ And all five reconcile **exactly against the carried September 4 set, independently verifying three editions of carried data.**
⚑ Nanhai/Foshan’s 24,860 is exactly the TOP of the September 4 Foshan range — yesterday’s range top is today’s mainstream quote.
⚑ The implied prior settlement behind the live caliber (24,375) matches the carried September 4 settlement to within one valid tick, indicating the board traded UP on September 7 alongside spot and London.
⚑ CONDITIONAL: a 24,405 close lifts MA5 from 24,189.00 to **24,255.00.**
⚑ The dollar index **broke 99 at 98.849, −0.24% on the session and −0.96% on the month.**
⚑ ING: aluminium supported by physical market tightness and firmer expected Chinese seasonal demand.
⚑⊘ The EU’s planned scrap export ban to non-OECD countries is bullish for Chinese PRIMARY demand.
⚑ CARRIED: social inventory 815,000 mt at September 3, −37,000 w/w, 1.55× the August weekly pace; cumulative draw 315,000 mt.
⚑ CARRIED: three-region daily 641,000 mt with the draw widening from −8,000 to −10,500; coverage 78.7%.
⚑ CARRIED: weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt (+12,200), the highest for the same period in nearly four years — still the only VOLUME-based demand evidence on this ledger.
⚑ CARRIED: Foshan −66,000 mt over five weeks with premiums at 220 yuan/mt; Gongyi −35,000 mt.
⚑ CARRIED: the September 4 close is above all six SHFE averages by 101.00 to 713.33, a fifth consecutive session, all six rising.
⚑ CARRIED: complex open interest +2,553 — a roll, not an exit.
⚑ CARRIED: SHFE weekly warehouse stocks described by a third party as an eleventh consecutive weekly decline; bonded flat w/w, so external units are not returning.
⚑ CARRIED: Chinese operating rate 98.4% with no elasticity against the 45 million mt ceiling; Chalco H1 alumina output −14.19% y/y.
⚑ CARRIED: August average hourly earnings +3.1% y/y, the softest of the cycle.
⚑ CARRIED: all twelve alumina contracts closed above their opens on a perfectly monotonic +164 contango, every one above cost caliber one (2,718).
⚑ CARRIED, CONDITIONAL: Rusal’s four plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of losses — bullish for the alumina cost floor IF executed.
⚑ CARRIED: Guinean bauxite spot CIF USD 72–73/dry mt with freight near USD 40; SMM expects destocking to continue through the first half of September.

⊘ Bearish factors

⊘⊘ **This brief’s own flow verdict of one edition ago is falsified — “nearly motionless” was computed on a series missing its most recent observations. Method reliability is recorded here as DOWN, the third self-correction in three editions.**
⊘ And the prior edition’s exclusion of the $3,292.50 caliber was **over-cautious — it was the settlement. Caution has a cost and it is entered here.**
⊘⊘ No authoritative September 7 SHFE data of any kind; Section 1 is carried for a **FOURTH edition, and the basis, the MA5 test and the two-branch script are all UNJUDGEABLE.**
⊘⊘ SMM’s Monday inventory print is missing for a **SECOND edition, leaving the acceleration claim untested a second time.**
⊘ The September 4 and September 7 three-region daily prints and the SHFE Friday weekly warehouse print were likewise not retrievable.
⊘ A NEW exchange caliber of **219,874 mt at September 7 reconciles with neither of the two carried figures and its identity is unknown.**
⊘ The Fed repriced from ~50.2% to **56% — a hawkish move of ~5.8 points — with a second caliber at ~60%, a blackout to September 16 and no new guidance possible.**
⊘ **Wood Mackenzie’s 2026 deficit cut to ~900,000 mt (second caliber ~1 million mt) from 2.5–3 million is the most substantive balance-sheet bearish item on this ledger, dated August 4.**
⊘ Goldman’s reported **USD 2,350/mt Q4 2026 projection sits ~29% below yesterday’s settlement (undated; recorded, not weighted).**
⊘ The Hormuz tail narrowed: an Iran–Oman shipping agreement is reported near completion with ~7 million bpd still transiting — one edition after this brief re-opened it.
⊘ The South China and Central China relative spreads **stopped converging and widened (Nanhai 460, Nanchu 170, each +10).**
⊘ **Canada’s 25%→50% step-up lands TODAY with aluminium rod named; New Zealand is seeking safeguards on imports up 38%; Thailand’s 21.94% review is live. All three fall on the weakest column here.**
⊘ China’s August trade data lands today and July’s +18.7% aluminium product export growth is untested; September 10’s TSF growth is expected to DECELERATE to ~5%.
⊘ CARRIED: all twelve aluminium contracts closed BELOW their opens on September 4 (−100 to −220), three of them opening at their own highs.
⊘ CARRIED: the aluminium curve is BACKWARDATED **−170 (−0.70%) with the 2703–2708 tail nearly flat — the board prices almost no forward tightness.**
⊘ CARRIED: on an assumed 1.93 t coefficient the smelter margin proxy compresses **415.55 yuan/mt along the curve; far-curve liquidity is 2,544 lots, 1.04% of the complex.**
⊘ CARRIED: the alumina curve first closes above cost caliber two (2,826.21) only at AO2703 — forward cost inflation priced as a **2027 event; alumina front-month OI −14,117 for a sixth consecutive decline, −167,223 (−59.5%) since August 27.**
⊘ CARRIED: the September 4 close at 24,290 sits exactly back on the August 12 close; 24,490 and 24,510 are confirmed resistance; the MA5 clearance is 101.00; volume of 151,835 was 33.9% below the prior session’s sixty-day record.
⊘ CARRIED: aluminium rod oversupply, low processing fees, elevated absolute inventory; two-region billet flat on September 3 and not following the ingot draw.
⊘ CARRIED: the Mysteel 809,000 vs SMM 837,000 spread at August 31 (28,000 mt) is undissolved.
⊘ CARRIED: Japanese Q4 premium offers at USD 310–325/mt (−18% to −22% q/q) remain the hardest bearish physical datum on the ledger.
⊘ NEW SUPPLY: Metro Mining’s record bauxite output at lower unit costs; Alamtri’s Indonesian smelter ramping.
⊘ SMM’s A00, regional premia, sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings are login-walled for an EIGHTH edition; the October fed funds strip is missing for an ELEVENTH.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

The column that had gone dark for four editions came back, and it came back with more than it owed: Westmetall published both the September 4 and the September 7 rows in a single update, which means the demotion this brief executed one edition ago on a pre-written condition is withdrawn one edition later on that same condition, restoring “LME stocks are the lowest since 1990” from historical citation to current fact — except that the restored number is LOWER than the one demoted, at 244,525 mt against 245,975, so the series low is not reinstated but extended, and, more consequentially, the September 3-to-4 interval drew −1,450 mt (−0.59%), nearly three times the largest move in the prior series, rewriting the thirteen-interval flow from the −950 mt computed yesterday to −2,400 mt (−0.97%) with that single session accounting for 60.4% of the whole, so yesterday’s verdict that the hardest bullish datum here was “a real record AND a nearly motionless one” was correct on the data it had and is wrong on the data that exists, and it is revised here rather than defended, with the general lesson entered alongside it that a flow computed on a series missing its most recent observations is not a flow but a lower bound; price moved the same way, with cash settling $3,310.00 (+$17.50, +0.53%), the highest in eighteen sessions and the first settlement above August 12’s since August 11, the structure flipping from a $0.50 contango to a $2.00 backwardation, and newly exact averages of MA5 $3,284.40 and MA10 $3,248.75 both cleared, leaving London above all six with the four Sept-3-basis averages labelled stale; the same rows also settle an accounting matter, because the TradingEconomics caliber of $3,292.50 that the prior edition listed in parallel and explicitly refused to use was the September 4 settlement to the cent, so the exclusion was over-cautious while the method behind it was not wrong, both halves recorded, and the immediate benefit is that the three-way ratio spread collapses to the single correct 7.3774 while SMM’s fifth caliber resolves to within $0.50 of the confirmed 3-month, leaving only CNAL’s implied $3,296.00 reconciling with nothing; China gave less but gave it cleanly, with all five spot calibers up on September 7 — Shanghai 24,400 (+40), Changjiang and Zhongyuan 24,410 (+50), Nanhai 24,860 (+50), Nanchu 24,570 (+50) — none flat and none lower, and every one closing exactly against the September 4 set carried for three editions, which independently verifies that carried set, at the cost of South China spreads that stopped converging and widened by 10 each and a Changjiang quote that printed above Shanghai for the first time in the run; what China did NOT give is the board or the inventory, since no authoritative September 7 SHFE figure could be obtained from the exchange file, its mirrors or six commercial services, leaving Section 1 carried for a fourth edition with only one inference available — an undated live quote of 24,405 at +0.12%, whose displayed percentage admits a prior settlement band of 24,374.5 to 24,377.0 in which the only valid tick is 24,375, exactly the carried September 4 settlement, which dates the quote to the September 7 session and says the board traded up but does not resolve the basis, at +110 against the carried close and −5 against the live caliber, so the +70 premium’s first test stays open — while SMM’s Monday print is missing for a second consecutive edition, deferring a second time the acceleration claim that still rests on one weekly observation, and two deferrals are not a confirmation; the macro column shows an unusually clean disagreement, with the dollar breaking 99 at 98.849 (−0.24% on the session, −0.96% on the month) as the only unconditionally bullish datum on the page against a CME FedWatch reading at September 7 of a 56% hike, 41.5% hold and 2.5% residual — the first internally coherent Fed set in weeks — repricing about 5.8 points hawkish from ~50.2%, and these do not cancel into neutral but hold simultaneously; the geopolitical line, meanwhile, narrowed within one edition of being widened, with Brent at $97.01 (−0.16%, month +10.59%) and an Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement reported near completion against roughly 7 million bpd still transiting, a column that has now moved in two opposite directions in two editions and is by that fact low in information content; and on the ledger three items are new, two of them bearish — Wood Mackenzie’s 2026 deficit cut to about 900,000 tonnes from 2.5–3 million, logged with its August 4 date attached rather than dressed as news, an undated Goldman projection of $2,350/mt in Q4 2026 recorded and not weighted, and one genuine resolution in that EGA’s 18% describes reduction cells at the Al Taweelah smelter while the 25% and 50% calibers describe the alumina refinery, two different assets, so the 18% never conflicted while the 25%-versus-50% refinery conflict survives — leaving a London column transformed in a single update, a Chinese spot column that rose across all five calibers and verified three editions of carried data, a Chinese board and inventory column both still absent, a dollar below 99 against a Fed at 56%, and a Hormuz tail that narrowed one day after this brief widened it (interpretation).

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions (September 8)

⚑⚑ First priority is recovering the number that has now been missing for four editions: the September 7 and September 8 SHFE closes, settlements, volumes and open interest. Until they arrive the basis, the MA5 test and the two-branch script are all UNJUDGEABLE, and that is this brief’s largest structural gap. The reference levels are unchanged: 24,320 is the last confirmed board print, 24,290 the first test, and the MA5 at 24,189.00 has only 101.00 of clearance left. If September 7 did close near 24,405, MA5 rises to roughly 24,255.00 and the clearance problem eases automatically; a close below 24,290 puts the advance dating from August 3 back under review. Judge open interest on the COMPLEX total, not the main contract.
⚑⚑ Second is SMM’s Monday print, which is now two editions late. The discriminating bands are unchanged: 800,000–806,000 mt (a further 9,000–15,000 mt draw from September 3) upgrades the acceleration from a single observation to a SERIES; a flat print or a build back above 820,000 mt demotes it to single-week noise, and this brief will write that demotion explicitly. Watch too whether the three-region daily sustains its −8,000 to −10,500 cadence and whether the missing September 4 and September 7 dailies are backfilled.
⚑⚑ Third — new and specific this edition — is whether London can turn 244,525 into a TREND rather than an EVENT. September 4 alone did 60.4% of a three-week draw, which is consistent with either a one-off concentrated cancellation or the start of a genuine acceleration. The discriminating observation is simply the September 8 row. Another three-figure draw makes it a trend; a return to consecutive zeros makes September 4 an event. Watch alongside it whether the $2.00 backwardation widens, narrows or flips back to contango, and whether cash holds above August 12’s $3,307.50.
⚑ Fourth is whether the basis and the spreads start pointing the same way. September 7 produced an unusual combination: all five absolute prices up, all relative spreads wider (Nanhai 460, Nanchu 170, Changjiang 10 above Shanghai for the first time). If absolute prices rise again today while the spreads begin to converge, that reads as demand-driven; if the spreads keep widening, it reads as localised South China tightness rather than a national demand improvement (interpretation). The basis itself is judged at 0 and −20.
⚑ Fifth is today’s trade double-header: China’s August trade data and Canada’s 25%-to-50% step-up land together. Exports are expected +25%, imports +30% and the surplus around USD 119.05 billion; whether aluminium product exports held July’s +18.7% is the key line, because it determines the relative strength of “exports absorbing output” against “overseas trade barriers”. Canada’s doubling names aluminium rod specifically, landing directly on the weakest item on this ledger. Watch them as a pair.
⚑ Sixth is whether the dollar–Fed disagreement holds. DXY is below 99 and the Fed is at 56% — these usually move together and today they do not. Watch whether the dollar holds under 99 and whether a third FedWatch caliber closes the gap between 56% and 60%. The blackout runs to September 16, so no official guidance is coming and price is the only signal available.
⚑ Seventh is alumina, which has now gone TWO editions with no new data of any kind. The reference numbers are unchanged: AO2610 close 2,757, OI 113,727 (a sixth consecutive decline), a monotonic +164 contango, cost caliber one 2,718 and caliber two 2,826.21. Watch whether the OI decline ends, whether AO2701’s 150,947 lots remains the largest book on the board, and whether spot follows the board higher — the alumina cost line is currently the only variable on this page that is simultaneously bullish for the aluminium cost floor and bearish for smelter margin.

Disclaimer

This brief is prepared for internal morning-meeting reference only. Data are drawn from the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s public daily files and third-party mirrors thereof, Westmetall, TradingEconomics, CME FedWatch, Reuters, CNAL, AL Circle, Mysteel, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), Wood Mackenzie, ING, publicly reported Goldman Sachs commentary and public company disclosures. Items marked “⚑ / ⊘” are factual data; items marked “(interpretation)” or “(derivation)” are this brief’s judgement or calculation, and the two are distinguished explicitly throughout. Where sources disagree, all calibers are listed in parallel and are NOT reconciled — except where a source’s own page or a subsequently published settlement falsifies one of them, in which case the falsified caliber is discarded and the discarding is stated. All SHFE price data in this edition are carried forward and each instance is labelled as such; derivations resting on an assumed coefficient (such as the 1.93 t alumina-per-tonne figure) state that assumption before the calculation. This edition also records one of its own prior derivations that was falsified by later data and one prior exclusion that proved over-cautious, so that readers can calibrate this brief’s method reliability accordingly. This brief does not constitute investment advice and accepts no responsibility for any decision made on the basis of it.