Sep 9, 2026 · Every pre-written test resolves at once: China's inventory lands at 802,000t inside the band. SHFE returns with a 24,460 close.

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与本期性质

本期写于 9月9日(周三)上午,早于沪市日盘开盘。
⚑⚑ 本期是数据最完整的一期:沪市盘面在空白四期后回归,并一次补上 9月7日与 9月8日两个交易日——十二个铝合约与十二个氧化铝合约的开、高、低、收、结算、成交量与持仓量全部到位;SMM 周一(9月7日)社会库存落在 **802,000 吨,且落在本简报事先公布的判别区间之内;Westmetall 补上 9月8日行;一条 9月8日夜盘报价,其七个合约的涨幅百分比与 9月8日结算价逐一精确对上;9月8日中国现货五个口径全部到位且与 9月7日逐一对上;中国 8月贸易数据(含铝材出口分项);连续第二个交易日位于 99 下方的美元指数;三个 CME FedWatch 口径;以及六条行业条目。**
⚑ **方法升级:本期取回 Westmetall 六十行结算价,因此 LME 六条均线首次全部为精确值,不再有任何一条标注为滞后。**
⊘ 无法取得:SMM 9月4日、9月7日与 9月8日三地日度库存;上期所周五周度仓单与库存;9月7日与 9月8日任何铸造铝合金(AD)合约数据;SMM 的 A00 绝对报价、区域成交升贴水、出货与采购意愿指数、氧化铝指数及中铝五地氧化铝挂牌价(连续第九期登录墙);10月联邦基金利率条,连续第十二期缺失。

⚑⚑ 沪市:空白四期后回归,且一次补两个交易日

⚑⚑ **9月7日:开 24,240,高 24,445,低 24,200,收 24,345,结算 24,345(日均价 24,345.72),较 24,375 前结算 −30,成交量 134,561,持仓量 258,000(+3,245)。**
⚑⚑ **9月8日:开 24,400,高 24,550,低 24,335,收 24,460,结算 24,450,+115(+0.47%),成交量 133,589(−972,−0.72%),持仓量 258,395(+395);全铝系合约成交 233,591 手、持仓 628,099 手。**
⚑ **回归的数据反过来验证了被沿用的数据(derivation):9月4日沿用持仓 254,755 + 9月7日公布的 +3,245 = 258,000,分毫不差;9月7日「较前结算 −30」反证 24,375 这一沿用结算价完全正确。四期沿用、逐条标注的做法,在数据到达之日获得独立验证。**
⚑⚑ **24,460 是六十日窗口内的最高收盘价,较此前窗口顶部(9月3日的 24,370,本身为 6月5日以来最高)再高 90,处于二十日与六十日收盘分布的第 100 百分位;9月8日盘中高点 24,550 较 6月5日高点 24,520 高出 30(derivation)。**
⚑ **十二个铝合约中有十一个收在自身开盘价之上,唯一例外是 AL2707(开盘价即当日最高)。这是 9月4日「十二比零全数收在开盘价之下」的完全反转。铝曲线 back 结构由 −170(−0.70%)收窄至 −135(−0.55%)(derivation)。**

⚑⊘ 一期前的实时报价推导:一半获证,一半作废

⚑ **获证的一半:由 +0.12% 反解出的前结算价 24,375 完全正确,且 24,405 确实落在 9月7日 24,200–24,445 的区间之内。仅凭算术就把一条无日期报价定位到正确的交易日,这一步是成立的。**
⊘ **作废的一半:9月7日收盘是 24,345,不是 24,405,因此由此推出的条件式 MA5 24,255.00 从未存在。本期予以注销,并记下更窄的教训:能给报价定日期的推导,并不等于能预测收盘价(interpretation)。**
⚑ **真实均线(derivation):MA5 =(24,460 + 24,345 + 24,290 + 24,370 + 24,100)÷ 5 = 24,313.00,超出 147.00;MA10 = 24,124.50,超出 335.50。⊘ MA20 至 MA60 仍为 9月4日基准、滞后两个观测值:23,981.75 / 23,859.50 / 23,693.38 / 23,576.67,分别超出 478.25 / 600.50 / 766.62 / 883.33。**

⚑⚑ 夜盘:全页最响的数字,而且无需任何推断

⚑⚑ AL2610 报 **24,630,较 9月8日结算价 +180(+0.7362%),较 9月8日收盘价高 170,为本简报账面上 6月4日以来最高报价,较该日收盘 24,625 高出 5。**
⚑⚑ **七条恒等式,七个精确匹配(derivation):24,650 − 190 = 24,460 ✓;24,630 − 180 = 24,450 ✓;24,650 − 205 = 24,445 ✓;24,640 − 235 = 24,405 ✓;24,605 − 265 = 24,340 ✓;24,590 − 270 = 24,320 ✓;24,625 − 285 = 24,340 ✓。与一期前不同,本期不需要任何推断来定日期。**
⚑ 远月涨幅最大:AL2703 **+285(+1.1709%)、AL2702 +270、AL2701 +265。另有一条 9月9日盘前指示为 AL2610 开 24,470(+20),说明夜盘从 +20 一路走到 +180。**

⚑⚑ 伦敦:十九个交易日新高,且六条均线首次全部精确

⚑ 现货结算 **3,325.00 美元,较 9月7日 +15.00(+0.45%)、较 9月4日 +32.50(+0.99%),为十九个交易日以来最高;上一次更高的结算价是 8月11日的 3,373.00 美元。**
⚑ 三个月结算 **3,319.00 美元,即 backwardation 由 2.00 美元走阔至 6.00 美元——现货涨 15.00 而三个月涨 11.00(derivation)。**
⚑⚑ **六十行源数据取回,六条均线全部精确(derivation):MA5 3,297.20、MA10 3,259.70、MA20 3,255.58、MA30 3,251.10、MA40 3,232.18、MA60 3,221.23;现货分别超出 27.80、65.30、69.43、73.90、92.82、103.77。本简报近期首次没有任何一条伦敦均线带滞后标签。**
⚑ 位置:3,325.00 高于最近二十次结算中的 90.0%、六十次中的 86.7%(derivation)。⊘ 平行口径:TradingEconomics 3,337.23(+25.78,+0.78%;月 +0.03%,年 +26.92%);CNAL 三个月 3,334.00(+21.50);SMM 实时三个月 3,342.00(为 9月9日读数)。三者与结算价的差距为 12.23、9.00、17.00,列示但不并入任何均线。
⚑⊘ **比价下行,说明伦敦跑赢上海(derivation):24,460 ÷ 3,325.00 = 7.3564,而 9月4日为 7.3774。两个已结算交易日内沪铝 +0.70%、伦铝 +0.99%。**

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货:连续第二个五涨零跌,但基差翻负

⚑ **9月8日现货:上海 24,440(+40),区间 24,420–24,460;长江 24,450(+40),区间 24,430–24,470;中原 24,450(+40);南海/佛山 24,920(+60),区间 24,870–24,970;广东南储 24,630(+60),区间 24,600–24,660;中铝 AL99.70 各地挂牌 24,320–24,630。**
⚑ **五条恒等式全部对上(derivation):24,400+40 ✓;24,410+40 ✓(两次);24,860+60 ✓;24,570+60 ✓。**
⊘⊘ **基差检验落地,且结果偏空:上海现货 24,440 对 24,460 收盘价 = −20 贴水(对结算价 −10)。链条为 +70(9/4)→ +55(9/7)→ −20(9/8)。昨日关注清单写的是「基差在 0 与 −20 处判定」,它就印在 −20(derivation)。**
⊘ 同一事实的另一面:现货一个交易日内落后盘面 75 点——盘面 +115,而华东、华中现货 +40、华南 +60。
⊘ **华南价差连续第三个交易日走阔:南海 − 上海 480(前值 460,+20);南储 − 上海 190(前值 170,+20);长江 − 上海维持 +10。**
⊘ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价与区域成交升贴水连续第九期登录墙。

⊘ 氧化铝:完整数据回归,但丢掉了两样东西

⚑ **AO2610 9月8日:开 2,735,高 2,743,低 2,710,收 2,737,结算 2,722,−9,成交量 96,245,持仓量 96,682。反解出的 9月7日结算价为 2,746(derivation)。**
⊘ **持仓两个交易日内 −17,045(9月4日 113,727 → 9月8日 96,682);全氧化铝系持仓 435,374,较 9月4日的 447,827 减少 12,453;全系成交 244,611 手。**
⊘ **曲线丢掉了单调性:AO2704(2,801)低于 AO2703(2,812)十一点,AO2706(2,833)低于 AO2705(2,846)十三点。两处倒挂分别只有 6 手与 4 手成交,属流动性伪影,如此标注(interpretation)。首尾 contango +184(为首月的 6.84%),9月4日为 +164、6.01%。**
⊘⊘ **首次有合约收在成本口径一之下:AO2609 收 2,690,低于 2,718 达 28;AO2610 仅高出 19(9月4日为 39)。⊘ 且曲线首次收于成本口径二(2,826.21)之上的位置由 AO2703 外移至 AO2705——远期成本通胀被定价在八个月后而非六个月后(derivation)。**
⚑ **但夜盘与日盘相反:AO2701 报 2,798(+39,+1.41%),AO2609 报 2,690(+7,+0.26%),两者与 9月8日结算价精确对上。⚑ AO2701 已是氧化铝盘上最大的一本账(157,384 手),且成交 100,153 手超过 AO2610 的 96,245 手——主力身份正在迁移(derivation)。**
⊘ 冶炼利润代理(假设 1.93 吨氧化铝/吨铝,先声明假设再计算):首月 19,258.30、尾月 18,768.18,沿曲线压缩 **490.12 元/吨,较 9月4日的 415.55 走阔(derivation)。远月(2703–2708)成交合计 2,180 手,占全系 0.93%。**
⊘ 铸造铝合金:9月7日与 9月8日无任何 AD 合约数据。沿用 AD2610 23,545(−90);四个 ADC12 口径仍未统一。

三 · 库存

⚑⚑ 中国:周一数据到达,并通过了事先写下的检验

⚑⚑ **802,000 吨(9月7日周一),较周四(9月3日)−13,000,较上周一(8月31日)−35,000。**
⚑⚑ **两条恒等式同时闭合(derivation):815,000 − 13,000 = 802,000 ✓;837,000 − 35,000 = 802,000 ✓。完整链条 8月24日 860,000 → 8月27日 852,000 → 8月31日 837,000 → 9月3日 815,000 → 9月7日 802,000,每一步都无进位差。**
⚑⚑ **判别区间是两期前事先公布的:800,000–806,000 吨则「把加速由单一观测升级为序列」,持平或回升至 820,000 以上则降格为单周噪音。802,000 落在区间之内,高于下沿 2,000 吨。升级在此执行。**
⚑ **速度改由两个观测值支撑(derivation):周一对周一 −35,000/周,周四对周四 −37,000/周,均值 36,000,为 8月约 23,935 的 1.50 倍、7月约 38,387 的 93.8%。**
⚑ 累计:7月初阶段高点 1,130,000 吨 → **802,000 吨 = −328,000 吨(−29.0%);且 802,000 是本简报铝锭账面上的最低值。**

⊘⊘ 伦敦:两个零,因此 9月4日那一笔被判为「事件」

⊘⊘ **244,525 吨(9月8日)——连续第三行相同。9月4日的 −1,450 之后,是两个连续的零。**
⊘⊘ **一期前写下的条件是:「再来一笔三位数的抽库,它就是趋势;回到连续的零,9月4日就是事件。」连续的零到了。9月4日被判为事件,不是趋势的开端。**
⊘ **十四区间流量(derivation):8月18日 246,925 → 9月8日 244,525 = −2,400 吨(−0.97%)。区间明细:8/18→19 0、19→20 0、20→21 0、21→24 0、24→25 −100、25→26 0、26→27 0、27→28 −100、28→9/1 0、9/1→2 −500、2→3 −250、3→4 −1,450、4→7 0、7→8 0。十四个区间中九个恰为零,9月4日一天仍占全部抽库的 60.4%。**
⊘ 这并不推翻上一期对伦敦栏目的升级,而是给它划出边界:一个在一个集中区块内完成移动、随后停住的纪录低位,既是真实的纪录,也是稀薄的流量,两半都留在页面上(interpretation)。
⊘ 三地日度库存 9月4日、7日、8日均未取得,沿用 9月3日的 641,000 吨(广东 143,000、无锡 300,000、巩义 198,000);上期所周五周度仓单与库存同样未取得。
沿用:保税 116,000 吨(9月3日,持平);全国氧化铝库存 727 万吨(+8,000);上期所周度库存 391,498 吨、仓单 245,510(−28,691),第三方口径称为连续第十一周下降;上期所氧化铝周度 323,736 吨(−38,827);两地铝棒 89,000 吨(9月3日,持平);全国主流铝棒 140,500 吨(8月31日);铸造合金 28,100 吨。⊘ Mysteel 809,000 与 SMM 837,000(均为 8月31日)相差 28,000 吨的口径差仍未消解;9月7日那条 219,874 吨的第三方交易所口径仍与两个沿用数字都对不上,列示但不解读为下降。

解读

⚑ 中国库存栏目本期由「一个观测值」升级为「一个序列」,且升级所依据的判别条件是在数字未知之前写下的。这是本页最硬的多头证据,并且它的可信度来自方法而非来自结果(interpretation)。
⊘ 伦敦库存栏目本期被划界:纪录低位仍是纪录低位,但两个连续的零说明 9月4日的集中抽库尚未延续为趋势。一个自己写下的条件,连续两期分别指向升级与降格,这正是写下条件的意义(interpretation)。

四 · 宏观因素

⚑ 美元连续第二个交易日守在 99 下方

⚑ DXY **98.776,−0.0894(−0.09%),月 −1.04%,年 +1.02%——较 98.849 再跌 0.073。**
⚑⊘ 但被点名的驱动因素是日元,即市场对日本央行更激进收紧的预期。这是一条与美联储无关的美元走弱通道,对铝而言仍是利多,但它的持续性取决于 9月18日的日本央行会议而非 9月16日的 FOMC(interpretation)。
⊘ **联储口径重新裂开为三个:56%(沿用的 9月7日读数)、58.7%(9月7日第二口径)、约 60%(TradingEconomics,9月9日)。一期前那组内部自洽的数据,本期又回到三方价差。缄默期已生效,FOMC 于 9月16日 决议。⊘ 10月联邦基金利率条连续第十二期缺失。**
⊘ **一条本简报欠自己的日历更正:上一期所列「9月9日 CPI 0.9%、PPI 3.2%」指的是中国的 8月数据,不是美国。美国 8月 CPI 在 9月11日(周五)。⊘ 且中国这一发布日本身在不同来源间存在 9月9日与 9月10日的冲突,列示为未消解。**

⚑⊘ 能源与地缘:油价微升,通道协议仍带条件

⚑⊘ Brent **97.41 美元(+0.26%)(9月8日)。伊朗表示与阿曼的协议可能很快提供一条临时安全通行路线,同时警告船只仍面临被袭风险。**
⊘ 「可通行但仍有风险」不是「已收敛」,也不是「已开放」。本简报继续对这一栏目不赋予方向权重,并指出它已连续三期在两个方向之间摆动(interpretation)。⚑ 另:欧洲央行预计本周加息。

⊘⊘ 中国 8月贸易数据落地,而铝的那一行没有守住

⊘⊘ **未锻轧铝及铝材出口 626,000 吨(8月),7月为 643,000 吨,−17,000 吨(环比 −2.64%);1–8月累计 467 万吨,同比 +16.7%,而本简报此前沿用的 7月读数为同比 +18.7%。7月的出口速度没有守住,这正是上一期点名的判别项。**
⚑⊘ 总量数据分化:出口 **+25.0% 同比(7月 +23.9%),进口 +28.2%(市场预期 +30%,低于预期),顺差 1,190.9 亿美元(预期 1,190.5 亿,7月 1,125 亿)。外需继续跑赢,内需一侧没有(interpretation)。**
⊘ 中国 8月 CPI 市场预期同比 **+0.9%(7月 +0.5%,为五个月低点),PPI 预期向 +3.2% 靠拢;有分析指出 CPI 的回升更像食品基数效应而非需求转向。制造业 PMI 49.8、服务业 PMI 49.0,均在荣枯线下。9月10日公布社融与新增贷款。**

解读

⚑ 宏观栏目本期给出的是一条利多、两条不确定:美元第二个交易日守在 99 下方是无条件利多;联储三方价差与中国 CPI 发布日冲突都是信息缺口,而非方向(interpretation)。
⊘ 真正的宏观利空来自贸易数据内部,而不是标题:出口总量强劲的同时铝的出口分项环比下降,这直接削弱了「出口消化产量」这条支撑腿(interpretation)。

五 · 基本面

⚑⊘ 供应、成本与需求

⚑ **新增、但在检索中无日期,并如此标注:全国氧化铝周度开工率 84.04%(−0.8 个百分点);SMM 西澳氧化铝 FOB 425 美元/吨(周环比 −47 美元),中国氧化铝进口亏损由 750 美元/吨收窄至 413 美元/吨;四川部分电解铝厂因亏损与检修减产,影响约 205,000 吨/年。**
⊘ **一条口径冲突,列示而不调和:某 SMM 口径给出中国电解铝运行产能约 4,378 万吨/年,与本简报沿用的「4,500 万吨天花板 + 98.4% 开工率」组合对不上;同一来源按 1.925 系数推出的平衡氧化铝需求约 8,428 万吨/年,低于当期氧化铝运行产能。**
⊘ **新增供应侧:SMM 海外项目月度回顾把 2026–2027 年累计规划新增原铝产能列为约 585.5 万吨,占 2026 年及以后全部规划产能的 28.3%。**
⚑ 沿用成本:9月预焙阳极现货 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745 元/吨;9月氟化铝招标 11,500–12,000 元/吨;中铝上半年冶金级氧化铝产量 738 万吨,同比 −14.19%。
⊘ 沿用平衡表(利空):Wood Mackenzie 将 2026 年全球缺口下调至约 **90 万吨(第二口径约 100 万吨),日期为 8月4日;高盛被报道的 2026 年四季度 2,350 美元/吨 预测(检索中无日期,记录但不赋权),现较 9月8日结算价低约 29.3%;日本四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨(环比 −18% 至 −22%),仍是本账面上最硬的实物利空数据。**
⚑ 沿用多头侧:ING 的 Ewa Manthey——「铝受实物市场紧张与中国季节性需求转强预期的支撑」;LME 库存处于 1990 年以来最低,为三十六年低位。
沿用前瞻供应账本:俄铝印尼铝土矿—氧化铝综合体;俄铝四家工厂面临封存、年亏损约 8 亿美元并寻求克里姆林宫支持;俄铝 210 万吨氧化铝封存方案与 SUBR 矿;几内亚约 1.5 亿吨/年出口上限目标(−25%);力拓 Yarwun 自 10月起 −120 万吨/年;美铝 2026 年指引下调 20–30 万吨、产量指引 240–260 万吨;Alunorte 已恢复满产;Qatalum 约六成铭牌产能;Alba 1–3 线停产(19%);EGA Al Taweelah 电解厂 8月中前重启 18% 电解槽,而 **25% 与 50% 两个氧化铝精炼厂口径的冲突仍未消解;亚洲上半年氧化铝出口 705 万吨(同比 +27.36%);欧盟拟禁止含铝废料出口至非 OECD 国家;泰国 21.94% 临时复审;新西兰 ALENZ 就进口增长 38% 申请保障措施;加拿大 25%→50% 反制关税已生效并点名铝杆;Metro Mining 铝土矿产量创纪录;Alamtri 印尼电解厂爬产。**

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑⊘ 9月8日:五个口径全涨,但相对位置全面转弱

⚑⊘ **华东:上海现货 24,440(+40),区间 24,420–24,460。持货商随盘上调报价,但幅度不及盘面,基差由 +55 翻至 −20。出货意愿偏强(升水消失后惜售减弱);下游采购意愿转为观望——推断依据是价格、涨幅与基差,不是 SMM 指数。**
⚑⊘ **华南:南海/佛山 24,920(+60)、南储 24,630(+60),绝对涨幅居首;但南海 − 上海走阔至 480、南储 − 上海走阔至 190,连续第三个交易日走阔。华南在绝对与相对两个维度上同时更强,而这仍是区域性偏紧而非全国性需求改善(interpretation)。**
⚑ **华中与长江:中原 24,450(+40);长江 24,450(+40),继续高出上海现货 10。**
⊘ **本期最重要的现货结论:盘面 +115 而现货 +40 至 +60,现货单日落后盘面 75 点。一轮由盘面主导、实物报价未跟上的上涨,在实物报价跟上之前只能记作头寸驱动(interpretation)。**
⊘ SMM 出货与采购意愿指数连续第九期不可用。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 利多因素

⚑⚑ SMM 周一社会库存 **802,000 吨,落入事先公布的 800,000–806,000 判别区间,加速去库由单一观测升级为序列。**
⚑⚑ 两条独立恒等式(−13,000 对周四、−35,000 对上周一)同时精确闭合,五个日期的完整链条无进位差。
⚑⚑ 两观测均值 **36,000 吨/周,为 8月约 23,935 的 1.50 倍。**
⚑⚑ 累计去库 **328,000 吨(−29.0%),且 802,000 是本账面最低的铝锭社会库存。**
⚑⚑ 沪铝 9月8日收 **24,460(+115,+0.47%),为六十日窗口最高收盘,二十日与六十日分位均为 100%。**
⚑⚑ 盘中高点 **24,550 突破 6月5日高点 24,520。**
⚑⚑ 夜盘 AL2610 报 **24,630(+180),为 6月4日以来最高报价,七个合约与结算价精确对上。**
⚑ 十二个铝合约中十一个收在开盘价之上,与 9月4日的十二比零完全反转。
⚑ 铝曲线 back 由 −170 收窄至 **−135。**
⚑ 持仓 **258,395(+395),全系持仓 628,099,较 9月4日 +10,495——是移仓与加仓,不是离场。**
⚑ MA5 **24,313.00、MA10 24,124.50 分别被超出 147.00 与 335.50;六条均线全部被超越。**
⚑⚑ LME 现货结算 **3,325.00(+15.00,+0.45%),为十九个交易日最高。**
⚑ backwardation 由 2.00 走阔至 **6.00 美元,现货涨幅超过三个月。**
⚑⚑ **六条 LME 均线首次全部为精确值,现货分别超出 27.80 至 103.77。**
⚑ LME 库存 **244,525 吨 仍是 1990 年以来最低,为三十六年低位。**
⚑ 现货五个口径连续第二个交易日全涨,且全部与前一日精确对上。
⚑ 美元指数 **98.776,连续第二个交易日守在 99 下方,月 −1.04%。**
⚑ 中国 8月出口同比 **+25.0%,较 7月的 +23.9% 加速;顺差 1,190.9 亿美元超预期。**
⚑ 氧化铝夜盘 AO2701 **2,798(+39,+1.41%),与日盘方向相反。**
⚑ 比价降至 **7.3564,伦敦跑赢上海,说明外盘定价更紧。**
⚑ 沿用:全国周度出库量 135,400 吨(+12,200),为近四年同期最高——仍是本账面上唯一基于数量的需求证据。
⚑ 沿用:佛山五周 −66,000 吨、升水 220 元/吨;巩义五周 −35,000 吨。
⚑ 沿用:上期所周度库存被第三方描述为连续第十一周下降;保税库存周环比持平,外部单位没有回流。
⚑ 沿用:中铝上半年冶金级氧化铝产量同比 −14.19%;中国电解铝对 4,500 万吨天花板几无弹性。
⚑ 沿用(条件式):俄铝四家工厂在约 8 亿美元年亏损下面临封存——若执行则利多氧化铝成本底。
⚑ 沿用:ING 关于实物紧张与中国季节性需求的表述;几内亚铝土矿 CIF 72–73 美元/干吨。
⚑ 8月美国时薪同比仅 +3.1%,为本轮最软。
⚑ 四期沿用的沪市数据在回归后被独立验证,方法可靠性本期记为上升。

⊘ 利空因素

⊘⊘ **基差检验落地且偏空:+70 → +55 → −20,现货由升水翻为贴水,恰在昨日点名的水平。**
⊘⊘ **现货单日落后盘面 75 点——上涨由盘面主导,实物报价未跟上。**
⊘⊘ **中国 8月未锻轧铝及铝材出口 626,000 吨,环比 −17,000(−2.64%);1–8月同比 +16.7%,未能守住 7月的 +18.7%。这是上一期点名的判别项,它没有通过。**
⊘⊘ **LME 库存连续两个区间为零,因此 9月4日的 −1,450 按事先条件被判为事件而非趋势;十四个区间中九个恰为零。**
⊘ 华南价差连续第三个交易日走阔(南海 480、南储 190,各 +20)。
⊘⊘ **氧化铝 AO2609 收 2,690,低于成本口径一 2,718 达 28——本账面上首次有合约收在该线之下;AO2610 仅高出 19(9月4日为 39)。**
⊘ 曲线首次收于成本口径二之上的位置由 AO2703 **外移至 AO2705,远期成本通胀被推迟两个月定价。**
⊘ 氧化铝持仓两个交易日 **−17,045,全系 −12,453;AO2610 的主力身份正被 AO2701 取代。**
⊘ 氧化铝曲线丢掉单调性,出现两处倒挂(虽为流动性伪影)。
⊘ 冶炼利润代理沿曲线压缩由 415.55 走阔至 **490.12 元/吨;远月成交仅 2,180 手,占全系 0.93%。**
⊘ 联储口径重新裂为三方(56% / 58.7% / 约 60%),缄默期至 9月16日,无新指引可得。
⊘ 中国 8月进口 +28.2%,低于 +30% 的预期;制造业 PMI 49.8、服务业 PMI 49.0 均在荣枯线下。
⊘ 中国 8月 CPI 的预期回升被描述为食品基数效应而非需求转向。
⊘ 沿用:Wood Mackenzie 将 2026 年缺口下调至约 90 万吨(日期 8月4日);高盛 2,350 美元/吨的四季度预测较昨日结算价低约 29.3%(无日期,不赋权)。
⊘ 沿用:日本四季度升水 310–325 美元/吨(环比 −18% 至 −22%)。
⊘ 新增无日期条目:氧化铝周度开工率 84.04%;西澳 FOB 425 美元(周环比 −47);2026–2027 年规划新增原铝产能约 585.5 万吨。
⊘ 加拿大 25%→50% 已生效并点名铝杆;泰国 21.94%、新西兰 38% 保障措施调查同时在跑。
⊘ 沿用:铝杆过剩、加工费低、绝对库存偏高;两地铝棒 9月3日持平,未跟随铝锭去库。
⊘ 三地日度库存连续三个交易日未取得,因此无法核对 802,000 的构成;上期所周度仓单同样缺失。
⊘ 9月7日与 9月8日无任何 AD 合约数据;四个 ADC12 口径仍未统一。
⊘ SMM 的 A00、区域升贴水、意愿指数、氧化铝指数与中铝五地挂牌连续第九期登录墙;10月联邦基金利率条连续第十二期缺失。
⊘ 一期前由实时报价推出的条件式 MA5(24,255.00)从未存在,本期注销——推导能定日期,不能定收盘。

八 · 一句话观点

本期是所有事先写下的检验同时揭晓的一期,而诚实的总结是它们并未指向同一个方向:SMM 缺席两期的周一库存落在 802,000 吨,正好位于两期前公布的 800,000–806,000 判别区间之内,且 −13,000 对周四与 −35,000 对上周一两条恒等式同时精确闭合,因此加速去库由单一观测正式升级为序列,两观测均值 36,000 吨/周为 8月的 1.50 倍,累计去库 328,000 吨(−29.0%),802,000 亦是本账面最低——这是本页最硬的多头证据,而它的可信度来自判别条件写在数字未知之前;伦敦则在同样事先写下的条件下走向相反,库存连续第三行印在 244,525 吨,即 −1,450 之后连着两个零,按「再来一笔三位数抽库即为趋势、回到连续的零即为事件」的原文,9月4日被判为事件,十四个区间中九个恰为零,这并不推翻上一期对伦敦栏目的升级,而是给它划出边界;沪市盘面在空白四期后一次补上两个交易日,9月7日收 24,345、9月8日收 24,460(+115,+0.47%),为六十日窗口最高收盘、二十日与六十日分位均为 100%,盘中 24,550 突破 6月5日高点,而回归的数据反过来把四期沿用的持仓与结算价逐条验证为正确;本简报自己的实时报价推导则一半获证一半作废——反解出的前结算价 24,375 完全正确、24,405 确实落在 9月7日区间之内,但收盘是 24,345,因此条件式 MA5 24,255.00 从未存在,真实 MA5 为 24,313.00,教训写得更窄:能给报价定日期的推导不能预测收盘;夜盘无需任何推断,AL2610 报 24,630(+180),高出 9月8日收盘 170,为 6月4日以来最高,七个合约与结算价逐一精确对上,而日盘十二个铝合约中十一个收在开盘价之上,完全反转 9月4日的十二比零;伦敦同向,现货结算 3,325.00(+15.00,+0.45%)为十九个交易日最高,backwardation 由 2.00 走阔至 6.00,并且本期取回六十行源数据后六条 LME 均线首次全部为精确值,分别被超出 27.80 至 103.77;而利空的一半是具体的、并且是实物侧而非金融侧的:基差检验恰在昨日点名的 −20 落地,链条 +70 → +55 → −20 意味着实物升水在两个交易日内先收窄后翻负,同一事实的另一面是现货单日落后盘面 75 点,华南价差连续第三日走阔至 480 与 190,氧化铝 AO2609 首次收在成本口径一之下 28 点、曲线首次收于成本口径二之上的位置由 AO2703 外移至 AO2705、持仓两日 −17,045,而中国 8月未锻轧铝及铝材出口降至 626,000 吨、1–8月同比 +16.7% 未能守住 7月的 +18.7%,直接削弱「出口消化产量」这条腿;宏观上美元连续第二日守在 99 下方(98.776,月 −1.04%)是无条件利多,但被点名的驱动是日元与日本央行而非美联储,而联储口径重新裂为 56%、58.7% 与约 60% 三方——所以整体是:金融面强、实物面滞后,而两者之间的缺口才是接下来要盯的东西(interpretation)。

九 · 今日(9月9日)日盘与夜盘关注清单

⚑⚑ 第一,夜盘的 24,630 能否在日盘被确认。 这是全页最激进的数字,比 9月8日收盘高 170,且是 6月4日以来最高报价。判别很简单:日盘若在 24,550(9月8日高点)之上开出并守住,则夜盘属确认;若开在 24,460–24,550 之间并回落至 24,450 结算价之下,则夜盘属冲高回落,与氧化铝日盘的走势一致。参考位:24,550 / 24,470(盘前指示)/ 24,460(收盘)/ 24,450(结算)/ 24,313.00(MA5,仅有 147.00 的余量)。
⚑⚑ 第二,基差是否继续为负,以及为什么。 −20 的贴水是本期最重要的实物信号。若现货今日追上(涨幅 ≥ 盘面),基差回到 0 附近,则这轮上涨可改记为需求跟随;若盘面再涨而现货再度落后,贴水扩大至 −50 以上,则应记作头寸驱动并相应下调对上涨质量的评价。判别带:0 至 −20 为跟上,−50 及更深为落后。
⚑⚑ 第三,伦敦库存的下一行,以及 backwardation 的方向。 244,525 已连续三行不动。再出现一个零,则「事件」判定被进一步坐实;出现新的三位数抽库,则本期的降格需要在下一期重新审视——这一反转条件同样在此写明。同时观察 6.00 美元的 backwardation 是走阔、收窄还是翻回 contango,以及现货能否守住 3,325.00 并挑战 8月10日的 3,327.50。
⚑ 第四,SMM 三地日度库存能否补发。 802,000 的国家级数字已经到位,但它的地区构成连续三个交易日不可得,因此无法判断这 13,000 吨是从广东、无锡还是巩义走的。若日度数据补发且华南占比偏高,则与南海升水走阔互相印证;若集中在无锡,则东部的 −20 基差更像是到货压力而非需求。
⚑ 第五,氧化铝的成本线是否继续失守。 AO2609 已收在成本口径一(2,718)之下 28 点,AO2610 仅高出 19。判别位就是 2,718:AO2610 若收于其下,则「氧化铝成本支撑铝价底部」这条逻辑要下调一档;同时观察 AO2701 是否正式接替主力(持仓 157,384、成交 100,153 已超 AO2610),以及 2,798 的夜盘涨幅能否在日盘保住。
⚑ 第六,中国 8月 CPI 与 PPI 的发布日与数值。 发布日在来源间存在 9月9日与 9月10日的冲突,先确认日期再确认数字。预期 CPI 同比 +0.9%、PPI 向 +3.2% 靠拢。关键不在标题而在结构:若 CPI 的回升几乎全部来自食品,则对铝的下游需求没有信息量;PPI 降幅收窄才是与工业金属直接相关的一行。9月10日另有社融与新增贷款。
⚑ 第七,美元与联储的分歧能否收敛。 美元连续第二日在 99 下方,而联储口径在 56% 至 60% 之间裂开三方。观察美元能否守住 99 下方、第三个 FedWatch 口径能否收敛,以及 9月18日日本央行会议的预期是否继续通过日元这条通道压低美元。缄默期至 9月16日,价格是唯一可得的信号。

免责声明

本简报仅供内部晨会参考。数据来源包括上海期货交易所公开日度数据及其第三方镜像、Westmetall、TradingEconomics、CME FedWatch、路透、CNAL 世铝网、AL Circle、Mysteel、SMM(上海有色网)、Wood Mackenzie、ING、公开报道的高盛观点以及上市公司公开披露。标注「⚑ / ⊘」者为事实数据;标注「(interpretation)」或「(derivation)」者为本简报的判断或计算,二者在全文中明确区分。来源冲突时,所有口径平行列示且不予调和,除非来源自身页面或随后公布的结算价证伪其中之一,此时被证伪的口径予以剔除并明确说明。依赖假设系数的推导(如 1.93 吨氧化铝/吨铝)先声明假设再计算。本期同时记录了本简报自身一项获得证实的推导(24,375 前结算价)与一项被注销的条件式推论(24,255.00 的 MA5),以便读者据此校准本简报的方法可靠性。本简报不构成投资建议,亦不对据此作出的任何决策承担责任。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and the nature of this edition

Written the morning of Wednesday, September 9, BEFORE the SHFE day session opens.
⚑⚑ This is the fullest data page in some time. The SHFE board returned after four blank editions and returned with BOTH the September 7 and the September 8 sessions — opens, highs, lows, closes, settlements, volumes and open interest for all twelve aluminium and all twelve alumina contracts. SMM’s Monday September 7 social-inventory print landed at 802,000 mt and INSIDE this brief’s own pre-published band. Westmetall published the September 8 row. A September 8 NIGHT-session board reading arrived whose seven percentage changes reconcile EXACTLY against the September 8 settlements. The complete September 8 Chinese spot set arrived and reconciles exactly against September 7. China’s August trade data landed, including the aluminium export line.
⚑ METHOD UPGRADE: sixty rows of Westmetall settlements were retrieved this edition, so ALL SIX LME moving averages are exact rather than carried — the first edition in this brief’s recent record with no staleness label on any London average.
⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE: SMM’s September 4, 7 and 8 three-region daily inventory series; the SHFE Friday weekly warehouse and warrant print; any AD (cast aluminium alloy) contract data for September 7 or 8; SMM’s absolute A00, regional premia, sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings (login-walled for a NINTH edition); and the October fed funds strip, absent for a TWELFTH edition.

⚑⚑ SHFE: four blank editions end with two sessions at once

⚑⚑ **September 7: open 24,240, high 24,445, low 24,200, close 24,345, settlement 24,345 (session VWAP 24,345.72), −30 against the 24,375 prior settlement, volume 134,561, OI 258,000 (+3,245).**
⚑⚑ **September 8: open 24,400, high 24,550, low 24,335, close 24,460, settlement 24,450, +115 (+0.47%), volume 133,589 (−972, −0.72%), OI 258,395 (+395); complex volume 233,591 and complex OI 628,099.**
⚑ **THE RETURNING DATA VERIFIES THE CARRIED DATA (derivation): September 4’s carried OI of 254,755 plus September 7’s published +3,245 equals 258,000 exactly, and September 7’s −30 against a 24,375 prior settlement confirms the carried September 4 settlement to the tick. Four editions of carrying forward and labelling are vindicated on arrival.**
⚑⚑ **24,460 IS THE HIGHEST CLOSE IN THE SIXTY-SESSION WINDOW, clearing the previous window top — September 3’s 24,370, itself the highest since June 5 — by 90, and sitting at the 100th percentile of both the twenty- and sixty-session close distributions. The September 8 HIGH of 24,550 clears the June 5 high of 24,520 by 30 (derivation).**
⚑ **ELEVEN OF TWELVE aluminium contracts closed ABOVE their opens, the sole exception being AL2707, whose open equalled its own high. This is a complete reversal of September 4’s twelve-for-twelve below. The aluminium curve’s backwardation narrows from −170 (−0.70%) to −135 (−0.55%) front-to-tail (derivation).**

⚑⊘ The live-caliber derivation of one edition ago: half vindicated, half retired

⚑ **VINDICATED: the implied prior settlement of 24,375, solved backwards from a displayed +0.12%, was EXACT, and 24,405 does sit inside the September 7 range of 24,200–24,445. Dating an undated quote to the correct session by arithmetic alone worked.**
⊘ **RETIRED: the September 7 close was 24,345, not 24,405, so the CONDITIONAL MA5 of 24,255.00 never existed. It is cancelled here, and the lesson is recorded in narrower terms than yesterday’s: a derivation that dates a quote is not a derivation that predicts a close (interpretation).**
⚑ **THE ACTUAL AVERAGES (derivation): MA5 = (24,460 + 24,345 + 24,290 + 24,370 + 24,100) ÷ 5 = 24,313.00, cleared by 147.00; MA10 = 24,124.50, cleared by 335.50. ⊘ MA20 through MA60 remain on the September 4 basis, two observations stale: 23,981.75 / 23,859.50 / 23,693.38 / 23,576.67, cleared by 478.25 / 600.50 / 766.62 / 883.33.**

⚑⚑ The night session — the loudest number here, and it needs no inference at all

⚑⚑ AL2610 prints **24,630, +180 (+0.7362%) against the September 8 settlement — 170 above the September 8 close and the highest print on this brief’s ledger since June 4, clearing that session’s 24,625 close by 5.**
⚑⚑ **SEVEN IDENTITIES, SEVEN EXACT MATCHES (derivation): 24,650 − 190 = 24,460 ✓; 24,630 − 180 = 24,450 ✓; 24,650 − 205 = 24,445 ✓; 24,640 − 235 = 24,405 ✓; 24,605 − 265 = 24,340 ✓; 24,590 − 270 = 24,320 ✓; 24,625 − 285 = 24,340 ✓. Unlike one edition ago, no inference is required to date this reading.**
⚑ The far contracts led: AL2703 **+285 (+1.1709%), AL2702 +270, AL2701 +265. A separate September 9 pre-open indication reads AL2610 at 24,470 (+20), so the night travelled from +20 to +180 inside the session.**

⚑⚑ London: a nineteen-session high, and six exact averages for the first time

⚑ Cash settled **$3,325.00, +$15.00 (+0.45%) on September 7 and +$32.50 (+0.99%) on September 4 — the highest settlement in nineteen sessions. The last higher settlement is August 11’s $3,373.00.**
⚑ The 3-month settled **$3,319.00, so the backwardation WIDENS from $2.00 to $6.00 — cash gained $15.00 against the 3-month’s $11.00 (derivation).**
⚑⚑ **SIXTY SOURCE ROWS RETRIEVED, SO ALL SIX AVERAGES ARE EXACT (derivation): MA5 $3,297.20, MA10 $3,259.70, MA20 $3,255.58, MA30 $3,251.10, MA40 $3,232.18, MA60 $3,221.23. Cash clears them by 27.80, 65.30, 69.43, 73.90, 92.82 and 103.77. No London average carries a staleness label this edition.**
⚑ POSITION: $3,325.00 sits above 90.0% of the last twenty settlements and 86.7% of the last sixty (derivation). ⊘ PARALLEL CALIBERS, listed and NOT folded into any average: TradingEconomics $3,337.23 (+$25.78, +0.78%; month +0.03%, year +26.92%); CNAL 3-month $3,334.00 (+$21.50); SMM’s live 3-month $3,342.00, a September 9 reading. Gaps to settlement: $12.23, $9.00, $17.00.
⚑⊘ **THE RATIO FELL, SO LONDON OUT-PERFORMED SHANGHAI (derivation): 24,460 ÷ $3,325.00 = 7.3564 against 7.3774 at September 4. Across the two settled sessions SHFE added 0.70% and LME added 0.99%.**

⚑ Spot: a second consecutive five-for-five — but the basis flips negative

⚑ **SEPTEMBER 8 SPOT: Shanghai 24,440 (+40), range 24,420–24,460; Changjiang 24,450 (+40), range 24,430–24,470; Zhongyuan 24,450 (+40); Nanhai/Foshan 24,920 (+60), range 24,870–24,970; Guangdong Nanchu 24,630 (+60), range 24,600–24,660; Chalco AL99.70 listings 24,320–24,630.**
⚑ **FIVE IDENTITIES, FIVE EXACT MATCHES (derivation): 24,400+40 ✓; 24,410+40 ✓ (twice); 24,860+60 ✓; 24,570+60 ✓.**
⊘⊘ **THE BASIS TEST RESOLVED, AND IT RESOLVED BEARISH: Shanghai spot 24,440 against a 24,460 close is a −20 DISCOUNT (−10 against settlement). The chain is +70 (Sept 4) → +55 (Sept 7) → −20 (Sept 8). Yesterday’s watchlist wrote that the basis “is judged at 0 and −20”. It printed −20 (derivation).**
⊘ The same fact from the other side: **spot lagged the board by 75 points in one session — the board +115 against +40 in East and Central China and +60 in South China.**
⊘ **THE SOUTH CHINA SPREADS WIDENED A THIRD CONSECUTIVE SESSION: Nanhai − Shanghai 480 (was 460, +20); Nanchu − Shanghai 190 (was 170, +20); Changjiang − Shanghai unchanged at +10.**
⊘ SMM’s absolute A00 and its regional transaction premia are login-walled for a NINTH consecutive edition.

⊘ Alumina: complete data returns — and the board loses two things it had

⚑ **AO2610, September 8: open 2,735, high 2,743, low 2,710, close 2,737, settlement 2,722, −9, volume 96,245, OI 96,682. The implied September 7 settlement is 2,746 (derivation).**
⊘ **OI −17,045 across two sessions (September 4’s 113,727 → 96,682); complex OI 435,374, down 12,453 on September 4’s 447,827; complex volume 244,611.**
⊘ **THE CURVE LOST ITS MONOTONICITY: AO2704 (2,801) is eleven BELOW AO2703 (2,812) and AO2706 (2,833) is thirteen BELOW AO2705 (2,846). Both inversions sit on SIX and FOUR lots respectively, so they are liquidity artefacts and are labelled as such (interpretation). Front-to-tail contango +184 (6.84%) against September 4’s +164 and 6.01%.**
⊘⊘ **A CONTRACT CLOSED BELOW COST CALIBER ONE FOR THE FIRST TIME ON THIS LEDGER: AO2609 at 2,690, twenty-eight BELOW 2,718. AO2610 holds it by only 19, against 39 on September 4. ⊘ And the first contract closing above cost caliber two (2,826.21) moves OUT from AO2703 to AO2705 — forward cost inflation priced eight months out rather than six (derivation).**
⚑ **BUT THE NIGHT SESSION DISAGREES WITH THE DAY SESSION: AO2701 at 2,798 (+39, +1.41%) and AO2609 at 2,690 (+7, +0.26%), both reconciling exactly against September 8 settlements. ⚑ AO2701 is now the largest book on the alumina board at 157,384 lots and it OUT-TRADED AO2610, 100,153 to 96,245 — the main-contract role is migrating (derivation).**
⊘ Smelter margin proxy (assumption stated first: 1.93 t alumina per tonne of aluminium): front 19,258.30, tail 18,768.18, so the compression along the curve **WIDENS to 490.12 yuan/mt from 415.55 on September 4 (derivation). Far-curve volume (2703–2708) is 2,180 lots, 0.93% of the complex.**
⊘ Cast alloy: **no AD contract data of any kind for September 7 or 8. AD2610 is carried at 23,545 (−90); four ADC12 calibers remain unreconciled.**

3 · Inventory

⚑⚑ China: the Monday print arrived — and it passed the pre-written test

⚑⚑ **802,000 mt at Monday September 7, −13,000 against Thursday September 3 and −35,000 against Monday August 31.**
⚑⚑ **BOTH IDENTITIES CLOSE EXACTLY (derivation): 815,000 − 13,000 = 802,000 ✓; 837,000 − 35,000 = 802,000 ✓. The full chain — Aug 24 860,000 → Aug 27 852,000 → Aug 31 837,000 → Sept 3 815,000 → Sept 7 802,000 — has no rounding gap at any step.**
⚑⚑ **THE BAND WAS PUBLISHED TWO EDITIONS AGO, BEFORE THE NUMBER WAS KNOWN: 800,000–806,000 mt upgrades the acceleration from a single observation to a SERIES; a flat print or a build above 820,000 demotes it to single-week noise. 802,000 lands inside the band by 2,000 mt. The upgrade is executed here, in writing.**
⚑ **THE PACE NOW RESTS ON TWO OBSERVATIONS (derivation): Monday-to-Monday −35,000/week; Thursday-to-Thursday −37,000/week; average 36,000, which is 1.50× August’s ~23,935 and 93.8% of July’s ~38,387.**
⚑ CUMULATIVE: the early-July 1,130,000 mt phase high → **802,000 mt = −328,000 mt (−29.0%), and 802,000 is the lowest ingot figure on this brief’s ledger.**

⊘⊘ London: two zeros, so September 4 is ruled an event

⊘⊘ **244,525 mt at September 8 — a THIRD consecutive identical row. Two straight zeros followed the −1,450.**
⊘⊘ **THE CONDITION WAS WRITTEN ONE EDITION AGO: “another three-figure draw makes it a trend; a return to consecutive zeros makes September 4 an event.” Consecutive zeros arrived. September 4 is an EVENT, not the start of a trend.**
⊘ **THE FOURTEEN-INTERVAL FLOW (derivation): August 18 246,925 → September 8 244,525 = −2,400 mt (−0.97%). Interval detail: Aug 18→19 0, 19→20 0, 20→21 0, 21→24 0, 24→25 −100, 25→26 0, 26→27 0, 27→28 −100, 28→Sep 1 0, Sep 1→2 −500, 2→3 −250, 3→4 −1,450, 4→7 0, 7→8 0. NINE of fourteen intervals are exactly zero and September 4 alone remains 60.4% of the whole.**
⊘ This does NOT unwind yesterday’s upgrade of the London column; it **bounds it. A record low that moves in one concentrated block and then stops is a real record and a thin flow, and both halves stay on the page (interpretation).**
⊘ The three-region daily series was not retrievable for September 4, 7 or 8, so it is CARRIED at September 3: 641,000 mt (Guangdong 143,000, Wuxi 300,000, Gongyi 198,000), the draw having widened from −8,000 to −10,500. The Friday SHFE weekly warehouse and warrant print was again not retrievable.
CARRIED: bonded 116,000 mt at Sept 3 (flat w/w); national alumina inventory 7.27 million mt (+8,000); SHFE weekly warehouse 391,498 mt with warrants 245,510 (−28,691), an eleventh consecutive weekly decline on a third-party caliber; SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827); two-region billet 89,000 mt at Sept 3 (unchanged); national mainstream billet 140,500 mt (Aug 31); cast alloy 28,100 mt; SMM’s August 27 regional detail — Foshan 153,000 (−66,000 over five weeks, premiums 220 yuan/mt), Wuxi 326,000, Gongyi 209,000 (−35,000); weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt (+12,200), the highest for the same period in nearly four years. ⊘ The Mysteel 809,000 vs SMM 837,000 spread at August 31 is undissolved, and the unidentified 219,874 mt third-party SHFE caliber at September 7 still reconciles with neither carried figure and is still NOT read as a decline.

Interpretation

⚑ The CHINESE inventory column is **UPGRADED from a single observation to a series, and the upgrade rests on a condition written before the number was known. This is the hardest bullish datum on the page, and its credibility comes from the method rather than from the result (interpretation).**
⊘ The LONDON inventory column is **BOUNDED: the record low is still a record low, but two consecutive zeros say the September 4 block has not yet extended into a trend. A self-written condition that produced an upgrade in one edition and a demotion in the next is exactly what writing conditions down is for (interpretation).**

4 · Macro Factors

⚑ The dollar held below 99 for a second session

⚑ DXY **98.776, −0.0894 (−0.09%), month −1.04%, year +1.02% — against 98.849, a further −0.073.**
⚑⊘ But the named driver is the **YEN, on expectations of more aggressive Bank of Japan tightening. That is a dollar-weakness channel with nothing to do with the Fed, so it is bullish for the metal while its durability depends on the BoJ meeting of September 18 rather than the FOMC of September 16 (interpretation).**
⊘ **THE FED SPREAD RE-OPENED TO THREE CALIBERS: 56% (the carried September 7 reading), 58.7% (a second September 7 caliber) and ~60% (TradingEconomics at September 9). The internally coherent set of one edition ago is a three-way spread again. Blackout in force; FOMC decides September 16. ⊘ The October fed funds strip is missing for a TWELFTH edition.**
⊘ **A CALENDAR CORRECTION THIS BRIEF OWES ITSELF: the prior edition’s “Sep 9 CPI 0.9%, PPI 3.2%” line refers to CHINA’s August prints, not the US ones. US August CPI lands Friday, September 11. ⊘ And the Chinese release date is itself now in conflict between sources at September 9 and September 10, so it is listed unreconciled.**

⚑⊘ Energy and geopolitics: oil firms slightly, the corridor stays conditional

⚑⊘ Brent **$97.41 (+0.26%) at September 8. Iran said an agreement with Oman could soon provide a temporary safe-passage route, while warning that ships remain at risk of attack.**
⊘ “Passable but still at risk” is neither “converged” nor “open”. This brief continues to assign the column **no directional weight and notes it has now moved between two positions in three consecutive editions (interpretation). ⚑ Separately, the ECB is expected to raise rates this week.**

⊘⊘ China’s August trade data landed — and the aluminium line did not hold

⊘⊘ **Unwrought aluminium and aluminium product exports 626,000 mt in August against July’s 643,000 — −17,000 mt, −2.64% m/m. January–August is 4.67 million mt, +16.7% y/y, against the +18.7% July reading this brief carried. July’s export pace was not held, and that was the discriminating test named one edition ago.**
⚑⊘ The headline split: exports **+25.0% y/y (July +23.9%); imports +28.2% against a +30% consensus — a MISS; surplus USD 119.09 billion against USD 119.05 billion expected and July’s USD 112.5 billion. External demand outperforms; the domestic side does not (interpretation).**
⊘ China’s August CPI is expected at **+0.9% y/y (July +0.5%, a five-month low) and PPI toward +3.2%, with commentary describing the CPI rebound as a food-price base effect rather than a turn in demand. Manufacturing PMI 49.8 and services PMI 49.0 are both contractionary. TSF and new loans land September 10.**

Interpretation

⚑ The macro column offers **one clean positive and two information gaps: a dollar below 99 for a second session is unconditionally bullish; the three-way Fed spread and the conflicting Chinese release date are gaps, not directions (interpretation).**
⊘ The genuine macro negative is inside the trade data rather than in its headline: **strong aggregate exports alongside a month-on-month DECLINE in the aluminium line weakens the “exports absorbing output” leg directly (interpretation).**

5 · Fundamentals

⚑⊘ Supply, cost and demand

⚑ **NEW, UNDATED IN RETRIEVAL AND LABELLED AS SUCH: national alumina weekly operating rate 84.04% (−0.8 pp); SMM FOB Western Australia alumina USD 425/mt, −USD 47 w/w, with China’s alumina import loss narrowing from USD 750/mt to USD 413/mt; Sichuan smelter reductions on losses and maintenance affecting ~205,000 mt/yr.**
⊘ **ONE CALIBER CONFLICT, LISTED AND NOT RECONCILED: an SMM caliber puts Chinese aluminium operating capacity at ~43.78 million mt/yr, which does not reconcile with the “45 million mt ceiling plus 98.4% operating rate” pair carried here; the same source’s 1.925-coefficient balance puts required alumina at ~84.28 million mt/yr, below operating alumina capacity.**
⊘ **NEW SUPPLY-SIDE: SMM’s overseas project review puts cumulative planned 2026–2027 new primary capacity at ~5.855 million mt, 28.3% of all capacity planned for 2026 and beyond.**
⚑ CARRIED COST: September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 on acceptance; September aluminium fluoride tenders RMB 11,500–12,000/mt; Chalco H1 metallurgical alumina output 7.38 million mt, −14.19% y/y.
⊘ CARRIED BALANCE (bearish): Wood Mackenzie’s 2026 global deficit cut to **~900,000 mt (second caliber ~1 million mt) from 2.5–3 million, dated AUGUST 4; Goldman Sachs’ reported USD 2,350/mt Q4 2026 projection, undated and therefore recorded but NOT weighted, now ~29.3% below the September 8 settlement; Japanese Q4 premium offers USD 310–325/mt (−18% to −22% q/q), still the hardest physical bearish datum on this ledger.**
⚑ CARRIED (bullish): ING’s Ewa Manthey — “Aluminium is supported by physical market tightness and expectations of firmer seasonal demand in China”; LME stocks at their lowest since 1990, a thirty-six-year low.
CARRIED forward-supply ledger: Rusal’s Indonesian bauxite-alumina complex; Rusal seeking Kremlin support with four plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of annual losses; Rusal’s 2.1 million mt alumina mothball proposal and the SUBR mine; Guinea’s ~150 million mt/yr export cap target (−25%); Rio Tinto Yarwun −1.2 million mt/yr from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut of 200,000–300,000 mt and output guidance of 2.4–2.6 million mt; Alunorte back to full; Qatalum ~60% of nameplate; Alba lines 1–3 down (19%); EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter at 18% of reduction cells restarted by mid-August, with the **25% vs 50% ALUMINA REFINERY conflict still unreconciled; Asia H1 alumina exports 7.05 million mt (+27.36% y/y); the EU’s planned scrap export ban to non-OECD countries; Thailand’s provisional 21.94% review; New Zealand’s ALENZ safeguard petition on imports up 38%; Canada’s 25%→50% counter-tariff now in force with aluminium rod named; Metro Mining’s record Bauxite Hills output; Alamtri’s ramping Indonesian smelter; Guinean bauxite spot CIF USD 72–73/dry mt with freight near USD 40; MJP spot premium USD 270/mt; secondary operating rate 49.1%.**

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑⊘ September 8: five calibers up, but every relative position deteriorated

⚑⊘ **East China: Shanghai spot 24,440 (+40), range 24,420–24,460. Holders lifted offers with the board but by less than the board moved, and the basis flipped from +55 to −20. Shipment willingness firmer (reluctance eases once the premium disappears); purchasing willingness turns wait-and-see. These judgements are inferred from price, change, basis and regional spreads, NOT from SMM’s indices, which are unavailable for a ninth edition.**
⚑⊘ **South China: Nanhai/Foshan 24,920 (+60) and Nanchu 24,630 (+60) led in absolute terms — but Nanhai − Shanghai widened to 480 and Nanchu − Shanghai to 190, a THIRD consecutive session of widening. South China is stronger both absolutely and relatively, and that remains localised tightness rather than a national demand improvement (interpretation).**
⚑ **Central China and the Yangtze: Zhongyuan 24,450 (+40); Changjiang 24,450 (+40), still 10 above Shanghai spot.**
⊘ **THE EDITION’S MOST IMPORTANT SPOT CONCLUSION: the board added 115 while spot added 40 to 60, so spot lagged the board by 75 points in a single session. A rally led by the screen and not followed by the physical quote is a positioning rally until the physical quote catches up (interpretation).**

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

⚑⚑ SMM Monday social inventory **802,000 mt, INSIDE the pre-published 800,000–806,000 band; the acceleration is upgraded from one observation to a SERIES.**
⚑⚑ Two independent identities (−13,000 vs Thursday, −35,000 vs the prior Monday) close exactly, and the five-date chain has no rounding gap.
⚑⚑ The two-observation pace of **36,000 mt/week is 1.50× August’s ~23,935.**
⚑⚑ Cumulative draw **328,000 mt (−29.0%), and 802,000 is the lowest ingot social inventory on this ledger.**
⚑⚑ SHFE closed **24,460 (+115, +0.47%) on September 8 — the highest close in the sixty-session window, at the 100th percentile of both windows.**
⚑⚑ The session HIGH of **24,550 clears the June 5 high of 24,520.**
⚑⚑ The night session prints AL2610 at **24,630 (+180), the highest since June 4, with seven contracts reconciling exactly to September 8 settlements.**
⚑ Eleven of twelve aluminium contracts closed above their opens — a complete reversal of September 4’s twelve-for-twelve below.
⚑ The aluminium curve’s backwardation narrows from −170 to **−135.**
⚑ OI **258,395 (+395) with complex OI at 628,099, up 10,495 on September 4 — a roll and an addition, not an exit.**
⚑ MA5 **24,313.00 and MA10 24,124.50 are cleared by 147.00 and 335.50; all six averages remain cleared.**
⚑⚑ LME cash settled **$3,325.00 (+$15.00, +0.45%), the highest in nineteen sessions.**
⚑ The backwardation **widened from $2.00 to $6.00, cash outpacing the 3-month.**
⚑⚑ **All six LME averages are exact for the first time, cleared by 27.80 to 103.77.**
⚑ LME stocks **244,525 mt remain the lowest since 1990 — a thirty-six-year low.**
⚑ All five Chinese spot calibers rose for a **second consecutive session, every one reconciling exactly to the prior day.**
⚑ DXY **98.776, a second consecutive session below 99, month −1.04%.**
⚑ China’s August exports **+25.0% y/y, accelerating from July’s +23.9%; the surplus beat at USD 119.09 billion.**
⚑ Alumina’s night session went UP where its day session went down: AO2701 **2,798 (+39, +1.41%).**
⚑ The SHFE/LME ratio fell to **7.3564, so the metal is bid harder in dollars than in yuan.**
⚑ CARRIED: weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt (+12,200), the highest for the same period in nearly four years — still the only VOLUME-based demand evidence here.
⚑ CARRIED: Foshan −66,000 mt over five weeks with premiums at 220 yuan/mt; Gongyi −35,000 mt.
⚑ CARRIED: SHFE weekly warehouse stocks described by a third party as an eleventh consecutive weekly decline; bonded flat w/w, so external units are not returning.
⚑ CARRIED: Chalco H1 alumina output −14.19% y/y; Chinese primary aluminium has no elasticity against the 45 million mt ceiling.
⚑ CARRIED, CONDITIONAL: Rusal’s four plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of losses — bullish for the alumina cost floor IF executed.
⚑ CARRIED: ING on physical tightness and firmer Chinese seasonal demand; Guinean bauxite CIF USD 72–73/dry mt.
⚑ CARRIED: August average hourly earnings +3.1% y/y, the softest of the cycle.
⚑ Four editions of carried SHFE data were **independently verified on arrival; this brief’s method reliability is recorded as UP this edition.**

⊘ Bearish factors

⊘⊘ **The basis test resolved bearish: +70 → +55 → −20, spot flipping from premium to discount at exactly the level named yesterday.**
⊘⊘ **Spot lagged the board by 75 points in one session — the rally is screen-led and physically unconfirmed.**
⊘⊘ **China’s August aluminium exports fell to 626,000 mt, −17,000 (−2.64%) m/m; January–August +16.7% y/y did not hold July’s +18.7%. The test named one edition ago FAILED.**
⊘⊘ **LME stocks posted two consecutive zero intervals, so September 4’s −1,450 is ruled an event, not a trend; nine of fourteen intervals are exactly zero.**
⊘ The South China spreads widened a **third consecutive session (Nanhai 480, Nanchu 190, each +20).**
⊘⊘ **AO2609 closed 2,690, twenty-eight BELOW cost caliber one (2,718) — the first breach on this ledger; AO2610 holds it by only 19, against 39 on September 4.**
⊘ The first close above cost caliber two moves OUT from AO2703 to **AO2705 — forward cost inflation deferred by two months.**
⊘ Alumina OI **−17,045 across two sessions and complex OI −12,453; AO2610’s main-contract role is being taken by AO2701.**
⊘ The alumina curve lost its monotonicity with two inversions (liquidity artefacts, labelled).
⊘ The smelter margin proxy compression **widened from 415.55 to 490.12 yuan/mt; far-curve volume is 2,180 lots, 0.93% of the complex.**
⊘ The Fed spread re-opened three ways (56% / 58.7% / ~60%) with a blackout to September 16 and no guidance available.
⊘ China’s August imports **+28.2% missed the +30% consensus; manufacturing PMI 49.8 and services PMI 49.0 are both contractionary.**
⊘ The expected China CPI rebound is described as **a food-price base effect, not a demand turn.**
⊘ CARRIED: Wood Mackenzie’s 2026 deficit cut to ~900,000 mt (dated August 4); Goldman’s USD 2,350/mt Q4 2026 projection, ~29.3% below yesterday’s settlement (undated, not weighted).
⊘ CARRIED: Japanese Q4 premium offers at USD 310–325/mt (−18% to −22% q/q).
⊘ NEW, UNDATED: alumina weekly operating rate 84.04%; WA alumina FOB USD 425 (−USD 47 w/w); ~5.855 million mt of planned 2026–2027 new primary capacity.
⊘ Canada’s 25%→50% step-up is in force with aluminium rod named; Thailand’s 21.94% and New Zealand’s 38% actions run in parallel.
⊘ CARRIED: aluminium rod oversupply, low processing fees, elevated absolute inventory; two-region billet flat on September 3 and not following the ingot draw.
⊘ The three-region daily series is missing for a third consecutive session, so **the composition of the 802,000 mt cannot be checked; the SHFE weekly warrant print is likewise absent.**
⊘ **No AD contract data of any kind for September 7 or 8; four ADC12 calibers remain unreconciled.**
⊘ SMM’s A00, regional premia, sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings are login-walled for a NINTH edition; the October fed funds strip is missing for a TWELFTH.
⊘ The conditional MA5 of 24,255.00 derived from a live caliber one edition ago **never existed and is cancelled here — a derivation can date a quote but cannot predict a close.**

8 · One-Sentence Market View

This is the edition in which every test this brief wrote down in advance came back at once, and the honest summary is that they did not all come back the same way: SMM’s Monday print, twice deferred, landed at 802,000 mt inside the 800,000–806,000 band published two editions ago, with both identities closing exactly at −13,000 against Thursday and −35,000 against the prior Monday, so the acceleration is upgraded from a single observation to a series on a two-observation pace of 36,000 mt a week, 1.50 times August’s, a cumulative draw of 328,000 mt or 29.0%, and the lowest ingot figure on this ledger — the hardest bullish datum on the page, and credible precisely because the discriminating condition was written before the number was known; London resolved the opposite way on an equally pre-written condition, printing 244,525 mt for a third consecutive row so that two straight zeros followed the −1,450, which by the exact text — “another three-figure draw makes it a trend; a return to consecutive zeros makes September 4 an event” — rules September 4 an event, with nine of fourteen intervals now exactly zero, and that does not unwind yesterday’s upgrade of the London column but bounds it; the SHFE board returned after four blank editions with two sessions at once, September 7 at 24,345 and September 8 at 24,460, up 115 or 0.47%, the highest close in the sixty-session window at the hundredth percentile of both distributions, on a high of 24,550 that clears the June 5 high, and the returning data verified four editions of carried open interest and settlements line by line; this brief’s own live-caliber derivation is half vindicated and half retired, since the implied prior settlement of 24,375 was exact and 24,405 did sit inside the September 7 range, but the close was 24,345, so the conditional MA5 of 24,255.00 never existed and the actual MA5 is 24,313.00, the narrower lesson being that a derivation which dates a quote does not predict a close; the night session needs no inference at all, with AL2610 at 24,630, up 180 against settlement and 170 above the close, the highest print since June 4, seven contracts reconciling exactly, while the day session saw eleven of twelve aluminium contracts close above their opens in a complete reversal of September 4; London agreed, settling cash at $3,325.00 for a nineteen-session high with the backwardation widening from $2.00 to $6.00, and sixty retrieved source rows make all six LME averages exact for the first time, cleared by 27.80 to 103.77; against all of that the bearish half is specific and physical rather than financial, because the basis test resolved at exactly the −20 named yesterday, the chain +70, +55, −20 meaning the physical premium narrowed then flipped inside two sessions, which seen from the other side is spot lagging the board by 75 points in one day, with the South China spreads widening a third consecutive session to 480 and 190, AO2609 closing twenty-eight below cost caliber one for the first time on this ledger, the first close above cost caliber two moving out from AO2703 to AO2705, alumina open interest down 17,045 across two sessions, and China’s August aluminium exports falling to 626,000 mt with January–August at +16.7% against July’s +18.7%, which weakens the “exports absorbing output” leg directly; macro gave one clean positive and two gaps, with the dollar below 99 for a second session at 98.776 and down 1.04% on the month but driven by the yen and the Bank of Japan rather than the Fed, and the Fed itself re-opening into a three-way spread of 56%, 58.7% and roughly 60% — so the net is a strong financial tape sitting on a lagging physical one, and the gap between the two is the thing to watch (interpretation).

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions (September 9)

⚑⚑ First is whether the day session confirms the night’s 24,630. It is the most aggressive number on this page — 170 above the September 8 close and the highest print since June 4 — and the discriminating observation is simple. An open above 24,550 (the September 8 high) that holds makes the night a confirmation; an open between 24,460 and 24,550 that falls back through the 24,450 settlement makes it a spike and fade, consistent with what alumina’s day session already did. Reference levels: 24,550 / 24,470 (the pre-open indication) / 24,460 (close) / 24,450 (settlement) / 24,313.00 (MA5, with only 147.00 of clearance).
⚑⚑ Second is whether the basis stays negative, and why. The −20 discount is the most important physical signal in this edition. If spot catches up today — a spot gain at least equal to the board’s, taking the basis back toward zero — the rally can be reclassified as demand-following; if the board rises again while spot lags and the discount widens beyond −50, it should be recorded as positioning-driven and the quality of the advance marked down accordingly. Discriminating band: 0 to −20 is caught up; −50 or deeper is lagging.
⚑⚑ Third is London’s next stock row and the direction of the backwardation. 244,525 has now been unchanged across three rows. Another zero further confirms the “event” ruling; a fresh three-figure draw would require this edition’s ruling to be re-examined next edition — and that reversal condition is written here, in advance, as the prior one was. Watch alongside it whether the $6.00 backwardation widens, narrows or flips, and whether cash holds $3,325.00 and challenges August 10’s $3,327.50.
⚑ Fourth is whether SMM’s three-region daily series is backfilled. The national number arrived, but its composition has been unavailable for three consecutive sessions, so it cannot be said whether the 13,000 mt left Guangdong, Wuxi or Gongyi. If the dailies land with South China carrying a high share, that corroborates the widening Nanhai premium; if the draw is concentrated in Wuxi, the East China −20 basis reads more like arrival pressure than demand.
⚑ Fifth is whether alumina’s cost line keeps failing. AO2609 has already closed 28 below cost caliber one and AO2610 holds it by only 19. The discriminating level is 2,718: an AO2610 close beneath it downgrades the “alumina cost supports the aluminium floor” leg by one notch. Watch too whether AO2701 formally takes the main-contract role (157,384 lots of OI and 100,153 lots traded already exceed AO2610) and whether the 2,798 night print survives the day.
⚑ Sixth is China’s August CPI and PPI — first the date, then the number. Sources conflict between September 9 and September 10, so confirm the release date before the print. Expectations are CPI +0.9% y/y and PPI toward +3.2%. The structure matters more than the headline: if the CPI rebound is almost entirely food, it carries no information for aluminium’s downstream; the narrowing PPI decline is the line that touches industrial metals directly. TSF and new loans follow on September 10.
⚑ Seventh is whether the dollar–Fed disagreement converges. The dollar is below 99 for a second session while the Fed calibers span 56% to 60%. Watch whether DXY holds under 99, whether a third caliber closes the gap, and whether BoJ expectations into September 18 keep pressing the dollar through the yen channel. The blackout runs to September 16, so price is the only signal available.

Disclaimer

This brief is prepared for internal morning-meeting reference only. Data are drawn from the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s public daily files and third-party mirrors thereof, Westmetall, TradingEconomics, CME FedWatch, Reuters, CNAL, AL Circle, Mysteel, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), China’s General Administration of Customs as reported, Wood Mackenzie, ING, publicly reported Goldman Sachs commentary and public company disclosures. Items marked “⚑ / ⊘” are factual data; items marked “(interpretation)” or “(derivation)” are this brief’s judgement or calculation, and the two are distinguished explicitly throughout. Where sources disagree, all calibers are listed in parallel and are NOT reconciled — except where a source’s own page or a subsequently published settlement falsifies one of them, in which case the falsified caliber is discarded and the discarding is stated. Derivations resting on an assumed coefficient (such as the 1.93 t alumina-per-tonne figure) state that assumption before the calculation. This edition records both a prior derivation of this brief that was CONFIRMED by arriving data (the 24,375 implied prior settlement) and a prior conditional inference that is CANCELLED by it (the 24,255.00 MA5), together with a calendar correction it owed itself, so that readers can calibrate this brief’s method reliability accordingly. This brief does not constitute investment advice and accepts no responsibility for any decision made on the basis of it.