Sep 10, 2026 · Four of five tests pass as SHFE hits 24,665 and closes at 24,560. Alumina holds its cost line by two points.

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点与本期性质

本期写于 9月10日(周四)上午,早于沪市日盘开盘。
⚑ **本期新增:9月9日沪市日盘全部十二个铝合约与十二个氧化铝合约的开、高、低、收、结算、涨跌、成交量与持仓量;两条 9月10日盘前报价(08:01 与 08:50),其五个百分比与 9月9日结算价逐一精确对上;Westmetall 9月9日行;再次取回六十行结算价,LME 六条均线连续第二期全部为精确值;9月9日中国现货五个口径全部到位且与 9月8日逐一对上;⚑⚑ SMM 的 A00 绝对报价在连续九期登录墙后回归;中国 8月 CPI 与 PPI(并因此解决了本简报此前标注的发布日冲突);连续第三个交易日位于 99 下方的美元指数;以及六条行业条目。**
⊘ **无法取得:SMM 周四(9月10日)全国铝锭社会库存(写稿时尚未发布——本简报按方法要求,在下文事先公布判别区间);SMM 三地日度库存(9月4日至9日,连续第四期);上期所周五周度仓单与库存;9月9日任何铸造铝合金(AD)合约数据;SMM 区域成交升贴水、出货与采购意愿指数、氧化铝指数及中铝五地挂牌价(连续第十期登录墙);LME 成交量与持仓量;10月联邦基金利率条,连续第十三期缺失。**

⚑⚑ 沪铝 9月9日:日盘穿过夜盘报价,随后回吐 105 点

⚑⚑ **AL2610 9月9日:开 24,470,高 24,665,低 24,415,收 24,560,结算 24,560,较 24,450 前结算 +110(+0.45%),成交量 172,848(+39,259,+29.4%),持仓量 247,068(−11,327)。收盘对收盘为 +100。**
⚑⚑ **盘中高点 24,665 高于 9月8日夜盘的 24,630 达 35,高于 9月8日盘中高点 24,550 达 115,高于 6月5日高点 24,520 达 145。夜盘报价不是被「确认」,而是被「穿过」。**
⊘ **但随后回吐 105 点收在 24,560。昨日写下的两个分支是「在 24,550 之上开出并守住 = 确认」与「回落至 24,450 结算价之下 = 冲高回落」。两个分支都没有发生,两半均予记录(interpretation)。**
⚑ **开盘价 24,470 与一期前沿用的盘前指示完全一致,该数字获得逐点验证(derivation)。**
⚑⚑ **24,560 为连续第二个六十日窗口最高收盘价,处于二十日与六十日收盘分布的第 100 百分位。**
⚑ **十二个铝合约全部收在自身开盘价之上(9月8日为十一比一,9月4日为十二比零收在开盘价之下)。铝曲线 back 由 −135(−0.55%)进一步收窄至 −65(−0.26%)(derivation)。**
⊘ **同一块盘面的另一面:十二个合约也全部收在自身最高价之下。各合约自高点的回吐幅度依次为 80 / 105 / 120 / 100 / 95 / 120 / 135 / 130 / 140 / 85 / 125 / 110。没有一个合约把当日高点带到收盘。既扫过全部开盘价、又失守全部最高价的一天,是买盘撞上了卖盘,而不是买盘无人对抗(interpretation)。**

⊘⚑ 持仓减少 11,327,但全系只减少 1,627

⊘ 主力持仓 258,395 → **247,068(−11,327,−4.38%),在价格上涨中减少,单看即为空头回补的特征。**
⚑ **但全铝系持仓 628,099 → 626,472,仅减少 1,627 手,即约 9,700 手是移仓到其他月份而非离场。在全系口径下这是移仓,不是离场(derivation)。**
⚑ 全系成交 **363,115 手(9月8日 233,591),+129,524(+55.4%)。六十日窗口新高的收盘价是在本简报近期账面上最重的成交量上做出的。**

⚑ 均线:MA5 精确,MA10 由恒等式滚动

⚑ MA5 =(24,560 + 24,460 + 24,345 + 24,290 + 24,370)÷ 5 = **24,405.00,被超出 155.00(derivation)。**
⚑ MA10 = 上期 24,124.50 +(24,560 − 23,760)÷ 10 = **24,204.50,被超出 355.50——用滚动恒等式而非重算,口径与上期一致(derivation)。**
⊘ MA20 至 MA60 仍为 9月4日基准、滞后三个观测值:23,981.75 / 23,859.50 / 23,693.38 / 23,576.67,分别被超出 578.25 / 700.50 / 866.62 / 983.33。

⚑ 夜盘与 9月10日盘前:五条恒等式全部对上

⚑ **08:01 读数:AL2609 24,595(+30 对 24,565 结算) ✓;AL2610 24,590(+30 对 24,560) ✓;AL2611 24,595(+30 对 24,565) ✓。**
⚑ **08:50 读数:AL2610 24,650(+90,+0.3664% 对 24,560) ✓;AL2703 24,595(+65,+0.265% 对 24,530) ✓;成交量 54,693,持仓量 244,790(较日盘再减 2,278)。**
⚑⊘ 因此夜盘由 +30 走到 **+90,高于 9月9日收盘 90 点、高于 9月8日夜盘 24,630 达 20 点,但仍低于 9月9日盘中高点 24,665 达 15 点。盘前没有再创新高(derivation)。**

⚑⚑ 伦敦:二十个交易日新高,backwardation 第三次走阔

⚑⚑ 现货结算 **3,352.00 美元(+27.00,+0.81%),为二十个交易日以来最高;近期唯一更高的结算价是 8月11日的 3,373.00 美元。**
⚑⚑ 三个月结算 **3,338.00 美元,backwardation 由 6.00 走阔至 14.00 美元。完整链条:−0.50(9/4)→ +2.00(9/7)→ +6.00(9/8)→ +14.00(9/9),连续三步走阔(derivation)。**
⚑⚑ **六十行源数据再次取回,六条均线连续第二期全部精确(derivation):MA5 3,316.50、MA10 3,276.10、MA20 3,254.53、MA30 3,257.52、MA40 3,236.70、MA60 3,221.12;现货分别超出 35.50、75.90、97.47、94.48、115.30、130.88。**
⚑⊘ **一处记录在案的异常:MA30(3,257.52)比 MA20(3,254.53)高出 2.99,均线序列不再单调。成因是算术而非含义——MA30 覆盖而 MA20 不覆盖的那一段包含 8月3日至11日那波高结算价(derivation)。**
⚑ 位置:3,352.00 为最近二十次结算中的最高值;在六十次结算中仅次于 6月17/18/19/22 日与 8月11日,列第六(derivation)。
⊘ 平行口径:TradingEconomics 3,362.05(+24.82,+0.74%;月 +0.77%,年 +27.92%);CNAL 三个月 3,360.00(+26.00);SMM 实时三个月 3,353.50(−6.50,9月10日读数)。列示但不并入任何均线。
⚑ **比价继续下行(derivation):24,560 ÷ 3,352.00 = 7.3270,9月8日为 7.3564、9月4日为 7.3774。当日沪铝 +0.45%、伦铝 +0.81%,伦敦连续第二个交易日跑赢。**

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑⚑ 现货:SMM A00 绝对报价回归,基差检验通过

⚑⚑ **SMM A00 24,560 元/吨(+100),区间 24,550–24,570;SMM A00 佛山 24,780(+150),区间 24,760–24,800。这是本简报账面上十期以来第一条 SMM A00 绝对报价,连续九期的登录墙在本期被打破。**
⚑ **CNAL 口径 9月9日现货:上海 24,540(+100);长江 24,550(+100);中原 24,550(+100);南海/佛山 25,070(+150);广东南储 24,800(+170)。**
⚑ **五条恒等式全部对上(derivation):24,440+100 ✓;24,450+100 ✓(两次);24,920+150 ✓;24,630+170 ✓。连续第三个交易日全涨。**
⚑⚑ **基差检验通过,两个口径都在带内:SMM A00 24,560 − 收盘 24,560 = 恰为 0;CNAL 上海 24,540 − 24,560 = −20,与前一日持平。链条 +70(9/4)→ +55(9/7)→ −20(9/8)→ −20 / 0(9/9)。昨日的判别带是「0 至 −20 为跟上」,两个口径都印在带内。**
⚑ 同一事实的另一面:现货 +100,盘面收盘对收盘亦 +100——昨日「现货落后盘面 75 点」的问题没有延续(derivation)。
⊘ **一条新的口径冲突,列示而不调和:SMM 佛山 A00 24,780 比 CNAL 南海/佛山 25,070 低 290,同一日期。两者并列;下文华南价差沿用 CNAL 口径以保持与此前各期的可比性。**
⊘ **华南价差连续第四个交易日走阔,且走阔在加速:南海 − 上海 530(+50);南储 − 上海 260(+70);长江 − 上海维持 +10。此前三个交易日各走阔 20,本期为 50 与 70。区域离散度不是全国需求信号,而且它在变大而非变小(interpretation)。**

⚑⊘ 氧化铝:成本线以两点守住,主力身份正式移交

⚑⊘ **AO2610 9月9日:开 2,742,高 2,762,低 2,714,收 2,720,结算 2,736,较 2,722 前结算 −2,成交量 95,227,持仓量 68,346(−28,336)。**
⚑⊘ **成本口径一 2,718 以两点守住:收盘 2,720 高出 2 点(9月8日为 19,9月4日为 39),结算 2,736 高出 18。⊘ AO2609 收 2,695,仍低于该线 23。昨日点名的判别位通过了,而且只是通过而已。**
⚑⚑ **AO2701 正式接替主力:成交 206,172 手 对 AO2610 的 95,227 手,持仓 187,658 手(+30,274) 对 68,346 手,两项均超过两倍。本简报自下一期起将氧化铝口径切换至 AO2701。**
⊘ **另一项检验失败:AO2701 的 9月8日夜盘报价 2,798 未能在日盘保住,9月9日收 2,773,低于夜盘报价 25 点(但仍较自身前结算 +14)。**
⚑ **全系持仓回升:443,427 手,较 9月8日 435,374 +8,053,结束此前两个交易日合计 −12,453 的下降;全系成交 359,979 手(+115,368,+47.2%)。**
⚑ **曲线部分恢复单调性:仅剩一处倒挂(AO2708 2,879 低于 AO2707 2,888 九点,成交 136 手),9月8日为两处。首尾 contango +184(为首月的 6.83%),与 9月8日持平。**
⚑ **成本口径二(2,826.21)首次被收盘超越的位置由 AO2705 内移至 AO2704——远期成本通胀由八个月前移至七个月(derivation)。**
⚑ 冶炼利润代理(先声明假设:1.93 吨氧化铝/吨铝):首月 **19,368.65(+110.35)、尾月 18,948.53(+180.35),沿曲线压缩 420.12 元/吨,较 9月8日的 490.12 收窄 70.00(derivation)。远月(2703–2708)成交 1,319 手,占全系 0.37%(9月8日为 0.93%)。**
⊘ **AO2609 盘中低点 2,442 为临近交割合约在 420 手成交上的极端值,列示但不读作市场价位(interpretation)。**
⊘ 铸造铝合金:9月9日无任何 AD 合约数据;ADC12 口径差扩大至五个(详见侧栏),不予赋权。

三 · 库存

⚑ 中国:周四数据未发布,因此判别区间事先公布

⚑ 沿用:802,000 吨(9月7日周一),较 9月3日 −13,000,较 8月31日 −35,000。完整链条 8月24日 860,000 → 8月27日 852,000 → 8月31日 837,000 → 9月3日 815,000 → 9月7日 **802,000。两观测均值 36,000 吨/周,为 8月约 23,935 的 1.50 倍;累计去库 328,000 吨(−29.0%)。**
⊘ **9月10日(周四)数据在写稿时尚未发布。**
⚑⚑ **判别区间在此事先公布(derivation):775,000–785,000 吨 则把速度确认为三个观测值的序列(对应周四对周四 −30,000 至 −40,000);786,000–795,000 吨 为向 8月速度减速;800,000 吨以上 则去库停滞,本页最硬的多头证据相应降级。**

⊘⊘ 伦敦:第四行不动,而六十日算术给出了硬数字

⊘ **244,525 吨(9月9日)——连续第四行相同,即 −1,450 之后的第三个连续的零。事先写下的条件是「再出现一个零,则事件判定被进一步坐实」。它被坐实了。**
⊘ **十五区间流量(derivation):8月18日 246,925 → 9月9日 244,525 = −2,400 吨(−0.97%);十五个区间中十个恰为零;9月4日一天仍占全部抽库的 60.4%。**
⊘⊘ **六十日流量(本期新增)(derivation):6月17日 316,525 → 9月9日 244,525 = −72,000 吨(−22.75%)。但其中 69,600 吨发生在 8月18日之前,之后只有 2,400 吨。折算到每个区间:8月18日前约 1,582 吨,之后约 160 吨——伦敦去库速度已降至其 6–8月自身速度的 10.1%。纪录低位是真的,而流向它的流量三周前就停了(interpretation)。**
⊘ 三地日度库存 9月4日至9日均未取得(连续第四期),沿用 9月3日的 641,000 吨(广东 143,000、无锡 300,000、巩义 198,000);上期所周五周度仓单与库存同样未取得。
沿用:保税 116,000 吨(9月3日,持平);全国氧化铝库存 727 万吨(+8,000);上期所周度库存 391,498 吨、仓单 245,510(−28,691);上期所氧化铝周度 323,736 吨(−38,827);两地铝棒 89,000 吨(9月3日,持平);全国主流铝棒 140,500 吨(8月31日);铸造合金 28,100 吨。⊘ Mysteel 809,000 与 SMM 837,000(均为 8月31日)相差 28,000 吨仍未消解。

解读

⊘ **伦敦库存栏目本期由「已划界」转为「已定性」:第三个连续的零把 9月4日那一笔坐实为事件,而六十日算术把它量化——去库速度只剩十分之一。这一栏目自本期起不再作为多头证据的主线,仅作为绝对低位的背景(interpretation)。**
⚑ **但价格不同意库存:现货结算创二十日新高、backwardation 连续三步走阔至 14.00 美元。当仓单不动而现货升水持续走阔时,更可能是仓单在衡量错误的东西——注册库存之外的紧张不会出现在这一行里(interpretation)。**

四 · 宏观因素

⚑⚑ 中国 8月 PPI 大幅超预期,且有色分项超得更多

⚑⚑ **PPI 同比 +3.8%(7月 +3.5%,+0.3 个百分点;市场此前向 +3.2% 靠拢——大幅超预期),环比 +0.4%(7月 −0.7%,由负转正)。**
⚑⚑ **有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比 +0.8%、同比 +20.8%。这是数周以来第一条直接触及工业金属、而非需要推断的宏观数据,且与沪铝创六十日新高收盘出现在同一页上(interpretation)。**
⚑⊘ **CPI 同比 +0.8%(市场预期 +0.9%,小幅低于预期;7月 +0.5%,+0.3 个百分点),环比 +0.4%(7月 −0.1%),核心 CPI 同比 +1.0%。**
⚑ **发布日冲突已解决:上一期列为「9月9日与9月10日未消解」的中国 CPI/PPI 发布日,实际由国家统计局于 9月9日 公布。本期予以了结。**

⚑⊘ 美元、联储与能源

⚑ DXY **98.80,当日 +0.01%,月 −1.03%,年 +1.30%——连续第三个交易日守在 99 下方,处于四个月低位区间。**
⊘ 被点名的驱动仍是日元而非美联储,并新增一条:美国财政部长 Bessent 警告不要做空日元并表示对日本央行的干预安排有信心。这条美元走弱通道对铝是利多,但它的持续性取决于 9月18日的日本央行会议(interpretation)。
⊘ 联储:约 60%** 定价 9月15–16日 FOMC 加息 25 个基点,与一期前的区间上沿一致。缄默期在跑,美国 8月 CPI 于 9月11日(周五)公布——在决议之前,也在一轮 9月才发生的油价冲击之后。⊘ 10月联邦基金利率条连续第十三期缺失。**
⊘⚑ **Brent 100.71 美元(+2.85%)(9月9日),自 7月底以来首次站上 100 美元,原因是美伊冲突扩大。对铝是双向的:抬升电解环节的能源成本底,同时推高六天后 FOMC 要投票面对的名义通胀(interpretation)。**

解读

⚑ 宏观栏目本期由「一多两缺口」转为「两多一缺口」:中国 PPI 及其有色分项是无条件利多,美元第三日守在 99 下方是利多但通道在日本,联储仍是信息缺口(interpretation)。
⊘ 唯一需要标注的双向项是原油:100.71 美元既是成本支撑,也是让 9月16日决议更难转鸽的输入项(interpretation)。

五 · 基本面

⚑⊘ 供应、成本与需求

⚑ **本期新增:中国 8月 PPI 有色冶炼压延分项环比 +0.8%、同比 +20.8%;美国一季度原铝产量 167,000 吨,同比 +0.6%、环比 −1.2%;欧洲上半年电解铝产量 +4.9% 而氧化铝产量 −1.8%,理论缺口约 409 万吨,由海运货补足;美国下游加工与挤压企业就关税风险成立新的行业联盟;墨西哥对中国铝棒、铝杆与型材加征反倾销税,而阿根廷取消了对部分铝管的既有反倾销令;Vedanta 承诺 2,100 亿卢比 金属扩产投资;7月海合会原铝产量同比 −44%;巴西 Alunorte 8月减产至 50% 后已恢复满产。**
⊘ **一条来源纪律更正:某行业资讯以 9月9日 日期刊出「美铝以 31 亿美元 收购南方32铝业资产」。一手来源不是这样:该交易于 2026年6月30日 公告,总对价约 41 亿美元(现金 31 亿 + 约 1,700 万股新股约 10 亿),另有最高 7.5 亿美元 的或有价值权(与氧化铝/铝价挂钩,自 2026年7月1日起四个年度),标的为 Boddington、Worsley、Hillside、闲置的 Bayside、MRN 与 Alumar,预计 2027 年上半年完成交割。资讯的日期与金额均有误,予以剔除,以一手来源为准。**
⚑ 沿用成本:9月预焙阳极现货 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745 元/吨;9月氟化铝招标 11,500–12,000 元/吨;全国氧化铝周度开工率 84.04%(−0.8 个百分点,无日期);SMM 西澳氧化铝 FOB 425 美元/吨(周环比 −47,无日期),进口亏损由 750 美元/吨收窄至 413 美元/吨;四川减产影响约 205,000 吨/年(无日期);中铝上半年冶金级氧化铝产量 738 万吨,同比 −14.19%。
⊘ 沿用口径冲突:某 SMM 口径的中国电解铝运行产能约 **4,378 万吨/年,与本简报沿用的「4,500 万吨天花板 + 98.4% 开工率」组合仍对不上,并列而不调和。**
⊘ 沿用平衡表(利空):Wood Mackenzie 2026 年全球缺口约 **90 万吨(第二口径约 100 万吨,日期 8月4日);高盛被报道的四季度 2,350 美元/吨 预测(无日期,记录但不赋权),现较 9月9日结算价低约 29.9%;日本四季度升水报盘 310–325 美元/吨(环比 −18% 至 −22%)。**
⚑ 沿用多头侧:ING 的 Ewa Manthey 关于实物紧张与中国季节性需求;LME 库存仍处 1990 年以来最低。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 9月9日:六个口径全涨,基差跟上,但区域离散度扩大

⚑ **华东:SMM A00 24,560(+100),区间 24,550–24,570;CNAL 上海 24,540(+100)。现货涨幅与盘面收盘涨幅完全一致(各 +100),基差在 SMM 口径下恰为 0、在 CNAL 口径下维持 −20。出货意愿中性偏强(报价随盘同步上调,未见明显惜售);下游采购意愿由观望转为按需跟进——推断依据是价格、涨幅与基差的一致性,不是 SMM 意愿指数(该指数仍在登录墙后)。**
⚑⊘ **华南:南海/佛山 25,070(+150)、南储 24,800(+170),绝对涨幅继续居首;南海 − 上海走阔至 530(+50)、南储 − 上海走阔至 260(+70),连续第四个交易日走阔,且走阔幅度由每日 20 跳升至 50 与 70。**
⚑ **华中与长江:中原 24,550(+100);长江 24,550(+100),继续高出上海现货 10。**
⊘ **本期最重要的现货保留意见:华南升水连续四日扩大且加速,其持续性现在更支持物流或区域平衡的解释,而非消费的解释——若为全国性需求改善,华东不应连续四日落在后面(interpretation)。**

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 利多因素

⚑⚑ 沪铝 9月9日收 **24,560(+110,+0.45%),为连续第二个六十日窗口最高收盘,二十日与六十日分位均为 100%。**
⚑⚑ 盘中高点 **24,665 穿过 9月8日夜盘报价 24,630、9月8日高点 24,550 与 6月5日高点 24,520。**
⚑⚑ 成交量 172,848(+29.4%),全系 363,115(+55.4%)——新高是在最重的成交量上做出的。
⚑ 十二个铝合约全部收在开盘价之上(9月8日为十一个)。
⚑ 铝曲线 back 由 −135 收窄至 **−65。**
⚑ 全铝系持仓仅 −1,627,主力 −11,327 的绝大部分是移仓而非离场。
⚑ MA5 **24,405.00、MA10 24,204.50 分别被超出 155.00 与 355.50;六条均线全部被超越。**
⚑ 9月10日盘前 AL2610 **24,650(+90),高出 9月9日收盘 90 点;五条盘前恒等式全部精确对上。**
⚑⚑ LME 现货结算 **3,352.00(+27.00,+0.81%),为二十个交易日最高。**
⚑⚑ backwardation **连续第三步走阔至 14.00 美元(−0.50 → +2.00 → +6.00 → +14.00)——仓单不动而现货升水走阔,是注册库存之外的紧张。**
⚑⚑ **六条 LME 均线连续第二期全部精确,现货分别超出 35.50 至 130.88。**
⚑ LME 库存 244,525 吨仍是 1990 年以来最低,为三十六年低位。
⚑ 比价降至 **7.3270,伦敦连续第二个交易日跑赢上海。**
⚑⚑ **基差检验通过:现货 +100 = 盘面 +100,SMM 口径基差恰为 0、CNAL 口径维持 −20,两者都在昨日写下的「跟上」带内。**
⚑⚑ **SMM A00 绝对报价回归(24,560,+100),终结连续九期的登录墙——本简报最大的数据缺口本期被填上。**
⚑ 现货六个口径连续第三个交易日全涨,五条 CNAL 恒等式全部精确对上。
⚑⚑ **中国 8月 PPI +3.8%,大幅超越约 +3.2% 的预期,环比由 −0.7% 转为 +0.4%。**
⚑⚑ **有色金属冶炼和压延加工价格环比 +0.8%、同比 +20.8%——数周来第一条直接触及工业金属的宏观数据。**
⚑ 中国 8月核心 CPI **+1.0%,CPI 同比由 +0.5% 升至 +0.8%。**
⚑ 美元指数 **98.80,连续第三个交易日守在 99 下方,月 −1.03%。**
⚑ Brent **100.71 美元(+2.85%)——抬升电解环节能源成本底。**
⚑ 氧化铝成本口径一 2,718 **被守住(AO2610 收 2,720);成本口径二首次被超越的位置由 AO2705 内移至 AO2704。**
⚑ 氧化铝全系持仓 **+8,053 回升至 443,427,全系成交 +47.2%;曲线倒挂由两处减至一处。**
⚑ 冶炼利润代理首尾均改善,沿曲线压缩由 490.12 **收窄至 420.12。**
⚑ 欧洲上半年氧化铝产量 **−1.8% 而电解铝 +4.9%,理论缺口约 409 万吨,需靠海运货补足。**
⚑ 7月海合会原铝产量同比 **−44%;美国一季度原铝仅 167,000 吨。**
⚑ 墨西哥对中国铝型材加征反倾销税——对国内供应是边际利空,但对全球价格分层是利多。
⚑ 沿用:全国周度出库量 135,400 吨(+12,200),为近四年同期最高;佛山五周 −66,000 吨;巩义五周 −35,000 吨。
⚑ 沿用:上期所仓单被第三方描述为连续第十一周下降;保税库存周环比持平。
⚑ 沿用(条件式):俄铝四家工厂在约 8 亿美元年亏损下面临封存;俄铝 210 万吨氧化铝封存方案;几内亚出口上限;力拓 Yarwun 自 10月起 −120 万吨/年。
⚑ 沿用:中铝上半年冶金级氧化铝产量同比 −14.19%;ING 关于实物紧张的表述。
⚑ 本期两项事先写下的检验(基差、氧化铝成本线)均按写下的判别位落地,方法可靠性继续记为上升。

⊘ 利空因素

⊘⊘ **十二个合约全部收在自身最高价之下,回吐 80 至 140 点。没有一个合约把高点带到收盘——买盘撞上了卖盘。**
⊘⊘ 主力持仓 **−11,327 于价格上涨中减少(全系仅 −1,627,因此定性为移仓,但主力口径的短线特征仍是回补)。**
⊘⊘ **夜盘的 24,630 被穿过后未被守住:9月9日收 24,560,低于盘中高点 105 点;9月10日盘前 24,650 仍低于 9月9日高点 15 点,盘前没有再创新高。**
⊘⊘ LME 库存连续第四行不动、第三个连续的零,9月4日的 −1,450 被坐实为事件。
⊘⊘ **六十日算术:自 6月17日 −72,000 吨,但 8月18日之后仅 −2,400 吨,去库速度降至此前的 10.1%。**
⊘⊘ **华南价差连续第四个交易日走阔且加速(南海 530、+50;南储 260、+70)——区域离散度在扩大。**
⊘ AO2610 收盘仅高于成本口径一 **2 点(9月8日 19,9月4日 39);AO2609 仍低于该线 23 点。**
⊘ AO2701 的 2,798 夜盘报价未能在日盘保住,收 2,773,低 25 点。
⊘ AO2610 持仓 **−28,336,主力身份被 AO2701 取代;AO2610 仍低于 MA60(9月4日基准)18.68。**
⊘ 氧化铝远月成交仅 1,319 手,占全系 **0.37%,远月定价的信息含量下降。**
⊘ 中国 8月 CPI +0.8%,低于 +0.9% 的预期;制造业 PMI 49.8、服务业 PMI 49.0 仍在荣枯线下(沿用)。
⊘ 沿用:中国 8月未锻轧铝及铝材出口 **626,000 吨(环比 −17,000,−2.64%),1–8月同比 +16.7%,未守住 7月的 +18.7%。**
⊘ 联储约 60% 定价加息,缄默期至 9月16日;美国 8月 CPI 于 9月11日公布,而它结构上无法包含 9月的油价冲击。
⊘ Brent 100.71 美元的另一面:它让 9月16日的决议更难转向宽松。
⊘ 沿用:Wood Mackenzie 缺口下调至约 90 万吨(8月4日);高盛 2,350 美元/吨(无日期,不赋权);日本四季度升水 310–325 美元/吨(环比 −18% 至 −22%)。
⊘ 沿用无日期条目:氧化铝周度开工率 84.04%;西澳 FOB 425 美元(周环比 −47);2026–2027 年规划新增原铝产能约 585.5 万吨。
⊘ 加拿大 25%→50% 已生效并点名铝杆;泰国 21.94%、新西兰 38% 保障措施调查同时在跑。
⊘ **SMM 周四库存在写稿时未发布,因此本页最硬的多头证据本期没有更新。**
⊘ 三地日度库存连续第四期未取得;上期所周度仓单同样缺失;LME 成交量与持仓量不可得。
⊘ 9月9日无任何 AD 合约数据;ADC12 口径差扩大至五个(24,750 / 23,950 / 24,000 / 23,615 / 23,500–23,800),不予赋权。
⊘ SMM 区域升贴水、意愿指数、氧化铝指数与中铝五地挂牌连续第十期登录墙;10月联邦基金利率条连续第十三期缺失。
⊘ 一条行业资讯的日期与金额均有误(美铝/南方32),本期予以剔除——提醒本页每一条外部条目都需要一手来源核对。

八 · 一句话观点

昨日写下七项检验,本期落地五项、其中四项偏多,而最重要的那一项落地为「一半一半」:日盘并未按分支「在 24,550 之上开出并守住」或「跌回 24,450 之下」,而是先以 24,665 穿过 9月8日的夜盘报价 24,630 达 35 点、穿过 6月5日高点 145 点,随后回吐 105 点收在 24,560——为连续第二个六十日窗口最高收盘、二十日与六十日分位均为 100%,+110(+0.45%),且是在 172,848 手(+29.4%)、全系 363,115 手(+55.4%)这一近期最重的成交量上做出的,十二个铝合约全部收在开盘价之上、曲线 back 由 −135 收窄至 −65;但同一块盘面的另一面是十二个合约也全部收在自身最高价之下、回吐 80 至 140 点,没有一个把高点带到收盘,而主力持仓在上涨中减少 11,327 手——所幸全系仅减少 1,627 手,约 9,700 手是移仓而非离场;第二项检验干净地通过并且偏多,现货 +100 对盘面收盘 +100,SMM A00 口径基差恰为 0、CNAL 口径维持 −20,均落在昨日写下的「0 至 −20 为跟上」带内,而使其成为两个口径的原因本身就是本期最好的消息:SMM 的 A00 绝对报价在连续九期登录墙之后回归,报 24,560(+100),填上了本简报最大的数据缺口;伦敦则出现本期的核心矛盾——库存连续第四行不动、第三个连续的零,把 9月4日那一笔坐实为事件,而新算出的六十日流量把它量化到冷酷的程度,自 6月17日 −72,000 吨(−22.75%)之中有 69,600 吨发生在 8月18日之前、之后只有 2,400 吨,即去库速度只剩此前的 10.1%,可价格完全不同意,现货结算 3,352.00 美元(+27.00,+0.81%)创二十个交易日新高,backwardation 连续第三步由 −0.50 → +2.00 → +6.00 走阔至 +14.00,当仓单不动而现货升水持续走阔时,更可能是仓单在衡量错误的东西;氧化铝则一项通过一项失败,成本口径一 2,718 以两点守住(AO2610 收 2,720,前两期分别为 19 与 39),而 AO2701 的 2,798 夜盘报价未能在日盘保住(收 2,773),同时 AO2701 以 206,172 手成交与 187,658 手持仓正式接替主力、全系持仓回升 8,053、曲线倒挂由两处减至一处、成本口径二首次被超越的位置由 AO2705 内移至 AO2704、利润代理压缩由 490.12 收窄至 420.12;宏观本期给出数周来第一条直接触及工业金属的数据,中国 8月 PPI +3.8% 大幅超越约 +3.2% 的预期、环比由 −0.7% 转正为 +0.4%,其中有色金属冶炼和压延加工环比 +0.8%、同比 +20.8%,CPI 则以 +0.8% 小幅低于预期,而此前标注未消解的发布日冲突已确认为 9月9日,美元连续第三日守在 99 下方(98.80,月 −1.03%)但通道仍在日元与日本央行,Brent 站上 100.71 美元既抬升电解成本底也让 9月16日的决议更难转鸽;而本页唯一缺席的是 SMM 周四库存,因此判别区间照例事先写下:775,000–785,000 吨确认为三观测序列,786,000–795,000 吨为减速,800,000 吨以上则去库停滞——所以整体是:金融面在两个交易所同时走强、实物报价本期跟上、中国生产者价格予以确认、氧化铝成本底以两点守住,而伦敦的仓单流量已停滞三周、华南价差连续第四日走阔、且盘面上没有一个合约守住自己的高点(interpretation)。

九 · 今日(9月10日)日盘与夜盘关注清单

⚑⚑ 第一,SMM 周四库存能否落在事先写下的区间内。 这是本页唯一缺席的硬数据,而判别条件已在上文公布:775,000–785,000 吨把 36,000 吨/周的速度确认为三个观测值的序列;786,000–795,000 吨为向 8月速度减速;800,000 吨以上则去库停滞,本页最硬的多头证据降级。同时观察三地日度库存能否在连续四期缺失后补发——若补发且华南占比偏高,则与南海升水连续第四日走阔互相印证。
⚑⚑ 第二,24,665 这个高点能否被日盘收在其上,还是再度成为顶。 9月9日十二个合约全部失守自身高点,9月10日盘前 24,650 仍低于该高点 15 点。判别很简单:日盘收在 24,665 之上,则 9月9日的回吐属整理;收在 24,560(9月9日收盘与结算)之下,则 24,665 成为本轮的短期顶。参考位:24,675 / 24,665 / 24,650(盘前)/ 24,560 / 24,470 / 24,405.00(MA5,余量 155.00)。
⚑⚑ 第三,主力持仓是继续减少还是回补。 本期 −11,327 被全系口径定性为移仓(全系仅 −1,627),但这一定性需要下一期验证:若 9月10日主力持仓继续大幅下降而全系同步下降,则移仓的解释作废,应改记为离场;若主力持仓企稳或全系继续持平,则移仓解释成立。判别带:全系持仓变动在 ±5,000 以内视为移仓;全系 −15,000 以上视为离场。
⚑ 第四,LME 的 14.00 美元 backwardation 与不动的库存,哪一个先让步。 这是本页最清晰的矛盾。观察:现货能否守住 3,352.00 并挑战 8月11日的 3,373.00;backwardation 是继续走阔(第四步)、收窄还是翻回 contango;以及库存行是否出现第四个连续的零(进一步坐实)或新的三位数抽库(则本期的定性需要在下一期重新审视——这一反转条件同样事先写明)。
⚑ 第五,氧化铝 2,718 这条线在 AO2701 接替主力之后如何重估。 本期 AO2610 仅高出 2 点。自下一期起本简报以 AO2701 为主力口径,因此需要同时观察:AO2610 是否最终收于 2,718 之下(则「氧化铝成本支撑铝价底部」降一档),以及 AO2701(9月9日收 2,773、结算 2,791)相对成本口径二 2,826.21 的位置——AO2704 已首次收于其上,若这一位置继续内移至 AO2703 或更近,则远期成本通胀的定价在加速。
⚑ 第六,现货能否连续第二日与盘面同步,以及华南价差是否开始收敛。 本期两个口径的基差都落在「跟上」带内,这是本轮上涨质量的关键证据。判别带不变:0 至 −20 为跟上,−50 及更深为落后。同时观察南海 − 上海的 530 与南储 − 上海的 260:若第五个交易日继续走阔,则区域解释(物流/区域平衡)进一步压过需求解释;若开始收敛,则可以重新考虑全国性需求改善的可能。
⚑ 第七,美国 8月 CPI(9月11日)之前的定位,以及中国社融与新增贷款。 联储约 60% 定价加息、缄默期在跑,价格是唯一可得的信号;观察美元能否守住 99 下方、Brent 能否守住 100 美元。中国方面,8月社融与新增贷款在本周公布,是继 PPI 之后第二条与工业需求相关的读数。

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本简报仅供内部晨会参考。数据来源包括上海期货交易所公开日度数据及其第三方镜像、Westmetall、TradingEconomics、CME FedWatch、路透、CNAL 世铝网、AL Circle、Mysteel、SMM(上海有色网)、中国国家统计局、中国海关总署(经转述)、Wood Mackenzie、ING、公开报道的高盛观点以及上市公司公开披露与美铝公司公告。标注「⚑ / ⊘」者为事实数据;标注「(interpretation)」或「(derivation)」者为本简报的判断或计算,二者在全文中明确区分。来源冲突时,所有口径平行列示且不予调和,除非一手来源证伪其中之一,此时被证伪的口径予以剔除并明确说明——本期即有一例(美铝/南方32 交易的日期与金额)。依赖假设系数的推导(如 1.93 吨氧化铝/吨铝)先声明假设再计算。本期继续沿用「先写判别条件、后看数字」的方法,并已就 SMM 周四库存事先公布判别区间,以便读者据此校准本简报的方法可靠性。本简报不构成投资建议,亦不对据此作出的任何决策承担责任。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time and the nature of this edition

Written the morning of Thursday, September 10, BEFORE the SHFE day session opens.
⚑ NEW THIS EDITION: the complete SHFE September 9 day session for all twelve aluminium and all twelve alumina contracts; two separate September 10 pre-open board readings (08:01 and 08:50) whose five percentage changes reconcile EXACTLY against September 9 settlements; the Westmetall September 9 row; sixty retrieved settlement rows, so ALL SIX LME averages are exact for a SECOND consecutive edition; the complete September 9 Chinese spot set, all five CNAL calibers reconciling exactly against September 8; ⚑⚑ SMM’s ABSOLUTE A00 quotation, back after nine login-walled editions; China’s August CPI and PPI, which also resolves the release-date conflict this brief flagged as unreconciled; a dollar index in its third session below 99; and six industry items.
⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE: SMM’s Thursday September 10 national ingot print (unpublished at writing time — the discriminating band is published below, IN ADVANCE, as this brief’s method requires); SMM’s three-region daily series for September 4 through 9, a FOURTH consecutive edition; the SHFE Friday weekly warehouse and warrant print; any AD contract data for September 9; SMM’s regional transaction premia, sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings (login-walled for a TENTH consecutive edition); LME volume and open interest; and the October fed funds strip, absent for a THIRTEENTH consecutive edition.

⚑⚑ SHFE September 9: the day session traded THROUGH the night print, then gave back 105

⚑⚑ AL2610, September 9: open **24,470, high 24,665, low 24,415, close 24,560, settlement 24,560, +110 (+0.45%) against the 24,450 prior settlement, volume 172,848 (+29.4%), open interest 247,068 (−11,327). Close-to-close: +100.**
⚑⚑ The high of 24,665 is **35 ABOVE the September 8 night print of 24,630, 115 above the September 8 day high and 145 above the June 5 high. The night quote was not merely confirmed — it was exceeded.**
⊘ Then the board gave back 105 to close 24,560. Yesterday’s two branches were ‘open above 24,550 and hold = confirmation’ and ‘fall back through 24,450 = spike and fade’. **Neither branch occurred. Both halves are recorded (interpretation).**
⚑ The open of **24,470 is exactly the pre-open indication carried one edition ago, so that number is verified to the tick (derivation).**
⚑⚑ 24,560 is the highest close in the sixty-session window for a **SECOND consecutive session, at the 100th percentile of both the twenty- and sixty-session close distributions.**
⚑ **Twelve of twelve aluminium contracts closed ABOVE their opens — a full sweep, up from eleven of twelve on September 8 and the complete inverse of September 4’s twelve-for-twelve below. The curve’s backwardation narrowed again, from −135 (−0.55%) to −65 (−0.26%) front-to-tail (derivation).**
⊘ **The same board, read from the other side: twelve of twelve also closed BELOW their highs. Givebacks by contract: 80 / 105 / 120 / 100 / 95 / 120 / 135 / 130 / 140 / 85 / 125 / 110. Not one contract carried its high into the close. A session that sweeps every open and fails every high is a bid that ran into supply, not a bid that was unopposed (interpretation).**

⊘⚑ Open interest fell 11,327 — but the complex fell only 1,627

⊘ Main-contract OI 258,395 → **247,068 (−11,327, −4.38%) on a rising price, which taken alone is the short-covering signature.**
⚑ **But the whole aluminium complex went 628,099 → 626,472, down only 1,627, so roughly 9,700 lots rolled into other months rather than leaving. On the complex measure this is a roll into the October expiry, not an exit (derivation).**
⚑ Complex volume **363,115 lots against 233,591, +129,524 (+55.4%). The sixty-session-high close was made on the heaviest turnover on this brief’s recent ledger.**

⚑ Moving averages: MA5 exact, MA10 rolled by identity

⚑ MA5 = (24,560 + 24,460 + 24,345 + 24,290 + 24,370) ÷ 5 = **24,405.00, cleared by 155.00 (derivation).**
⚑ MA10 = prior 24,124.50 + (24,560 − 23,760) ÷ 10 = **24,204.50, cleared by 355.50 — rolled by identity rather than recomputed, so the basis stays consistent with the prior edition (derivation).**
⊘ MA20 through MA60 remain on the September 4 basis, now **three observations stale: 23,981.75 / 23,859.50 / 23,693.38 / 23,576.67, cleared by 578.25 / 700.50 / 866.62 / 983.33.**

⚑ The night session and the September 10 pre-open: five identities, five exact matches

⚑ **08:01 readings: AL2609 24,595 (+30 vs its 24,565 settlement) ✓; AL2610 24,590 (+30 vs 24,560) ✓; AL2611 24,595 (+30 vs 24,565) ✓.**
⚑ **08:50 readings: AL2610 24,650 (+90, +0.3664% vs 24,560) ✓; AL2703 24,595 (+65, +0.265% vs 24,530) ✓; volume 54,693, open interest 244,790 (a further −2,278 on the day session).**
⚑⊘ So the overnight ran from +30 to **+90, finishing 90 above the September 9 close and 20 above the September 8 night print — but still 15 BELOW the September 9 intraday high of 24,665. The pre-open did not make a new high (derivation).**

⚑⚑ London: a twenty-session high, and a third widening of the backwardation

⚑⚑ Cash settled **$3,352.00, +$27.00 (+0.81%) — the highest settlement in twenty sessions; the only higher settlement in the recent run is August 11’s $3,373.00.**
⚑⚑ The 3-month settled **$3,338.00, so the backwardation widens from $6.00 to $14.00. The full chain: −$0.50 (Sep 4) → +$2.00 (Sep 7) → +$6.00 (Sep 8) → +$14.00 (Sep 9) — three consecutive widening steps (derivation).**
⚑⚑ **Sixty source rows retrieved again, so all six averages are exact for a second consecutive edition (derivation): MA5 $3,316.50, MA10 $3,276.10, MA20 $3,254.53, MA30 $3,257.52, MA40 $3,236.70, MA60 $3,221.12. Cash clears all six by 35.50, 75.90, 97.47, 94.48, 115.30 and 130.88.**
⚑⊘ **One oddity, recorded because it is true: MA30 ($3,257.52) sits $2.99 ABOVE MA20 ($3,254.53), so the average stack is not monotone. The cause is arithmetic rather than meaningful — the window MA30 reaches and MA20 does not contains the August 3–11 run (derivation).**
⚑ Position: $3,352.00 is the **highest of the last twenty settlements and the sixth-highest of the sixty-session window, behind only June 17, 18, 19, 22 and August 11 (derivation).**
⊘ Parallel calibers, listed and NOT folded into any average: TradingEconomics $3,362.05 (+$24.82, +0.74%; month +0.77%, year +27.92%); CNAL 3M $3,360.00 (+$26.00); SMM live 3M $3,353.50 (−$6.50, a September 10 reading).
⚑ **The ratio fell again (derivation): 24,560 ÷ $3,352.00 = 7.3270, against 7.3564 on September 8 and 7.3774 on September 4. SHFE added 0.45% and LME 0.81%. London out-performed Shanghai for a second consecutive session.**

⚑⚑ Spot: SMM’s absolute A00 returns, and the basis test passes

⚑⚑ **SMM A00 24,560 yuan/mt (+100), range 24,550–24,570; SMM A00 Foshan 24,780 (+150), range 24,760–24,800. This is the first absolute SMM A00 quotation on this ledger in TEN editions — the nine-edition login wall broke this morning.**
⚑ **CNAL caliber, September 9: Shanghai 24,540 (+100); Changjiang 24,550 (+100); Zhongyuan 24,550 (+100); Nanhai/Foshan 25,070 (+150); Guangdong Nanchu 24,800 (+170).**
⚑ **All five reconcile exactly against September 8 (derivation): 24,440+100 ✓; 24,450+100 ✓ (twice); 24,920+150 ✓; 24,630+170 ✓. A third consecutive clean sweep.**
⚑⚑ **THE BASIS TEST PASSES ON BOTH CALIBERS: SMM A00 24,560 − close 24,560 = EXACTLY ZERO; CNAL Shanghai 24,540 − 24,560 = −20, unchanged. The chain is +70 (Sep 4) → +55 (Sep 7) → −20 (Sep 8) → −20 / 0 (Sep 9). Yesterday’s band was ‘0 to −20 is caught up’. Both calibers printed inside it.**
⚑ The same fact from the other side: **spot +100 against a board that rose +100 close-to-close. Yesterday’s 75-point lag did NOT extend (derivation).**
⊘ **A NEW CALIBER CONFLICT, LISTED AND NOT RECONCILED: SMM’s Foshan A00 at 24,780 sits 290 BELOW CNAL’s Nanhai/Foshan at 25,070 on the same date. Both carried in parallel; the spreads below use the CNAL caliber for continuity.**
⊘ **The South China spreads widened a FOURTH consecutive session, and the widening ACCELERATED: Nanhai − Shanghai 530 (+50); Nanchu − Shanghai 260 (+70); Changjiang − Shanghai unchanged at +10. The prior three sessions each widened +20; this one widened +50 and +70 (interpretation).**

⚑⊘ Alumina: the cost line holds by two points, and the main-contract role moves

⚑⊘ **AO2610, September 9: open 2,742, high 2,762, low 2,714, close 2,720, settlement 2,736, −2 against the 2,722 prior settlement, volume 95,227, open interest 68,346 (−28,336).**
⚑⊘ **COST CALIBER ONE HELD BY TWO POINTS: the close of 2,720 clears 2,718 by 2 (against 19 on September 8 and 39 on September 4); the settlement of 2,736 clears it by 18. ⊘ AO2609 closed 2,695, still 23 BELOW the line. Yesterday’s discriminating level passed, and did no more than pass.**
⚑⚑ **AO2701 FORMALLY TOOK THE MAIN-CONTRACT ROLE: 206,172 lots traded against AO2610’s 95,227, and 187,658 lots of open interest (+30,274) against 68,346 — both by more than two to one. This brief moves its alumina reading to AO2701 from the next edition.**
⊘ **The other pre-written alumina test FAILED: AO2701’s September 8 night print of 2,798 did not survive the day, closing 2,773, 25 below it (though still +14 against its own prior settlement).**
⚑ **Complex open interest turned back up: 443,427 lots, +8,053 on September 8’s 435,374, ending two sessions of decline totalling −12,453. Complex volume 359,979 (+115,368, +47.2%).**
⚑ **The curve recovered part of its monotonicity: one inversion (AO2708 2,879, nine below AO2707’s 2,888, on 136 lots) against two on September 8. Front-to-tail contango +184, 6.83% of the front, unchanged.**
⚑ **The first close above cost caliber two (2,826.21) moved IN from AO2705 to AO2704 — forward cost inflation priced seven months out rather than eight (derivation).**
⚑ Smelter margin proxy (assumption stated first: 1.93 t alumina per tonne of aluminium): front **19,368.65 (+110.35), tail 18,948.53 (+180.35), compression along the curve 420.12, against 490.12 on September 8 — narrower by 70.00 (derivation). Far-month (2703–2708) volume 1,319 lots, 0.37% of the complex against 0.93%.**
⊘ **AO2609’s low of 2,442 is an expiring-contract outlier on 420 lots, listed and NOT read as a market level (interpretation).**
⊘ Cast aluminium alloy: **no AD contract data of any kind for September 9; the ADC12 caliber spread widens to five (see sidebar) and no weight is given.**

3 · Inventory

⚑ China: the Thursday print is pending, so the band is published first

⚑ CARRIED: **802,000 mt at Monday September 7, −13,000 vs September 3 and −35,000 vs August 31. Full chain: Aug 24 860,000 → Aug 27 852,000 → Aug 31 837,000 → Sept 3 815,000 → Sept 7 802,000. Two-observation pace 36,000 mt/week = 1.50× August’s ~23,935. Cumulative draw 328,000 mt (−29.0%).**
⊘ **The Thursday September 10 print was not published at writing time.**
⚑⚑ **THE DISCRIMINATING BAND IS THEREFORE PUBLISHED HERE, BEFORE THE NUMBER (derivation): 775,000–785,000 mt confirms the pace as a THREE-observation series (a Thu-to-Thu draw of −30,000 to −40,000 against September 3’s 815,000); 786,000–795,000 mt is deceleration toward the August pace; above 800,000 mt means the destock has stalled and the hardest bullish datum on this page is downgraded.**

⊘⊘ London: a fourth unchanged row, and the sixty-session arithmetic that quantifies it

⊘ **244,525 mt at September 9 — a FOURTH consecutive identical row and the third straight zero after the −1,450. The pre-written condition was ‘another zero further confirms the event ruling.’ It is confirmed.**
⊘ **FIFTEEN-INTERVAL FLOW (derivation): August 18 246,925 → September 9 244,525 = −2,400 mt (−0.97%); ten of fifteen intervals exactly zero; September 4’s −1,450 alone is still 60.4% of the whole.**
⊘⊘ **SIXTY-SESSION FLOW, NEW THIS EDITION (derivation): June 17 316,525 → September 9 244,525 = −72,000 mt (−22.75%). But 69,600 mt of that came before August 18 and only 2,400 mt since. Per interval: ~1,582 mt before, ~160 mt after. The London destock is running at 10.1% of its own June-to-August pace. The record low is real; the flow into it stopped three weeks ago (interpretation).**
⊘ The three-region daily series was not retrievable for September 4 through 9 — a **fourth consecutive edition — so it is CARRIED at September 3: 641,000 mt (Guangdong 143,000, Wuxi 300,000, Gongyi 198,000). The Friday SHFE weekly warehouse and warrant print was again not retrievable.**
CARRIED: bonded 116,000 mt at Sept 3 (flat w/w); national alumina inventory 7.27 million mt (+8,000); SHFE weekly warehouse 391,498 mt with warrants 245,510 (−28,691); SHFE alumina weekly 323,736 mt (−38,827); two-region billet 89,000 mt (flat); national mainstream billet 140,500 mt (Aug 31); cast alloy 28,100 mt. ⊘ The Mysteel 809,000 vs SMM 837,000 spread at Aug 31 (28,000 apart) is still unreconciled.

Interpretation

⊘ **The London inventory column moves this edition from ‘bounded’ to ‘characterised’: a third straight zero rules September 4 an event, and the sixty-session arithmetic quantifies it — the draw is running at a tenth of its prior pace. From this edition the column is no longer carried as a primary bullish argument, only as background on an absolute low (interpretation).**
⚑ **But the price does not agree with the stock: cash at a twenty-session high and a backwardation widening for a third consecutive step to $14.00. When warrants stop moving while the cash premium keeps widening, the more likely reading is that the warrant series is measuring the wrong thing — tightness outside registered stock does not appear in that row (interpretation).**

4 · Macro Factors

⚑⚑ China’s August PPI beat, and the aluminium-relevant line inside it beat harder

⚑⚑ **PPI +3.8% y/y (July +3.5%, +0.3 pp; expectations had been running toward +3.2% — a clear BEAT), +0.4% m/m, reversing July’s −0.7%.**
⚑⚑ **Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling prices +0.8% m/m and +20.8% y/y. This is the first macro print in weeks that touches industrial metals directly rather than by inference, and it lands on the same page as a sixty-session-high SHFE close (interpretation).**
⚑⊘ **CPI +0.8% y/y against a +0.9% consensus — a small MISS — though up 0.3 pp from July’s +0.5%, with core CPI +1.0% and headline +0.4% m/m against July’s −0.1%.**
⚑ **The release-date conflict is RESOLVED: the CPI/PPI date listed as unreconciled between September 9 and September 10 was in fact September 9, per the National Bureau of Statistics. Closed out here.**

⚑⊘ Dollar, Fed and energy

⚑ DXY **98.80, +0.01% on the session, month −1.03%, year +1.30% — a third consecutive session below 99 and a four-month low area.**
⊘ The named driver is still the **yen rather than the Fed, now with the added element of a US Treasury warning against betting on further yen weakness. A dollar-weakness channel that is bullish for aluminium but whose durability turns on the September 18 Bank of Japan meeting (interpretation).**
⊘ Fed: **~60% priced for a 25 bp HIKE at the September 15–16 FOMC, consistent with the upper end of the prior edition’s spread. The blackout is running. US August CPI lands Friday September 11 — before the decision, and after a September crude move the print structurally cannot contain. ⊘ The October fed funds strip is absent for a thirteenth consecutive edition.**
⊘⚑ **Brent $100.71 (+2.85%) on September 9, through $100 for the first time since late July on a widening US–Iran exchange. Two-sided for aluminium: it raises the energy cost floor under smelting and it feeds a headline inflation reading the committee votes against six days later (interpretation).**

Interpretation

⚑ The macro column moves from ‘one clean positive and two gaps’ to **‘two clean positives and one gap’: China’s PPI and its non-ferrous sub-index are unconditional positives; the dollar below 99 a third session is a positive whose channel runs through Tokyo; the Fed remains an information gap (interpretation).**
⊘ The only item requiring a two-sided label is crude: $100.71 is both a cost support and an input that makes a dovish September 16 harder (interpretation).

5 · Fundamentals

⚑⊘ Supply, cost and demand

⚑ **NEW THIS EDITION: China’s August PPI non-ferrous smelting and rolling sub-index +0.8% m/m and +20.8% y/y; US Q1 2026 primary aluminium output 167,000 mt, +0.6% y/y and −1.2% q/q; European H1 2026 aluminium output +4.9% against alumina output −1.8%, leaving a ~4.09 million mt theoretical gap bridged by seaborne purchases; US downstream fabricators and extruders formed a new trade alliance over tariff exposure; Mexico imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium bars, rods and profiles while Argentina DROPPED existing anti-dumping orders on certain tubes; Vedanta committed ₹210 billion to metals expansion; GCC primary output reported −44% y/y in July; Alunorte cut to 50% in August and has since restored full production.**
⊘ **A SOURCE-DISCIPLINE CORRECTION: an industry feed carried ‘Alcoa acquires South32’s aluminium assets, $3.1 billion’ with a September 9 date. The primary source says otherwise: announced June 30, 2026, at ~USD 4.1 billion total (USD 3.1 bn cash plus ~17.0 million new shares worth ~USD 1.0 bn), plus up to USD 750 million of contingent value rights tied to alumina and aluminium prices over four annual periods from July 1, 2026, covering Boddington, Worsley, Hillside, the idled Bayside property, MRN and Alumar, closing expected in H1 2027. The feed’s date and amount are both wrong and are discarded; the primary source governs.**
⚑ CARRIED COST: September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 on acceptance; September aluminium fluoride tenders RMB 11,500–12,000/mt; national alumina weekly operating rate 84.04% (−0.8 pp, undated); SMM FOB Western Australia alumina USD 425/mt (−USD 47 w/w, undated), import loss narrowed from USD 750/mt to USD 413/mt; Sichuan reductions ~205,000 mt/yr (undated); Chalco H1 metallurgical alumina output 7.38 million mt, −14.19% y/y.
⊘ CARRIED CALIBER CONFLICT: an SMM caliber puts Chinese operating capacity at ~43.78 million mt/yr, which still does not reconcile with the 45 million mt ceiling and 98.4% operating-rate pair carried here. **Listed in parallel, not reconciled.**
⊘ CARRIED BALANCE (bearish): Wood Mackenzie’s 2026 global deficit at ~900,000 mt (second caliber ~1 million mt), dated August 4; Goldman Sachs’ reported USD 2,350/mt Q4 2026 projection (undated, **recorded but NOT weighted), now ~29.9% below the September 9 settlement; Japanese Q4 premium offers USD 310–325/mt (−18% to −22% q/q).**
⚑ CARRIED BULLISH: ING’s Ewa Manthey on physical tightness and firmer Chinese seasonal demand; LME stocks still at their lowest since 1990.

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ September 9: six calibers, six gains, the basis keeps pace, regional dispersion widens

⚑ **East China: SMM A00 24,560 (+100), range 24,550–24,570; CNAL Shanghai 24,540 (+100). The spot gain exactly matched the board’s close-to-close gain (+100 each), so the basis is exactly zero on the SMM caliber and −20 on the CNAL caliber. Shipment willingness reads neutral-to-firm (offers moved with the board, with no visible reluctance to sell); downstream purchasing reads from wait-and-see to need-based follow-through — inferred from price, gain and basis consistency, not from SMM’s sentiment indices, which remain behind the login wall.**
⚑⊘ **South China: Nanhai/Foshan 25,070 (+150) and Nanchu 24,800 (+170) lead in absolute terms again; but Nanhai − Shanghai widened to 530 (+50) and Nanchu − Shanghai to 260 (+70), a fourth consecutive session of widening in which the widening itself jumped from +20 a session to +50 and +70.**
⚑ **Central China and Changjiang: Zhongyuan 24,550 (+100); Changjiang 24,550 (+100), still 10 above Shanghai spot.**
⊘ **The most important spot reservation in this edition: four consecutive sessions of accelerating South China premia now argue more for a logistics or regional-balance explanation than a consumption one — a genuine national demand improvement should not leave East China behind four sessions running (interpretation).**

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors

⚑⚑ SHFE closed **24,560 (+110, +0.45%) on September 9 — a second consecutive sixty-session-high close, at the 100th percentile of both distributions.**
⚑⚑ The intraday high of **24,665 cleared the September 8 night print (24,630), the September 8 high (24,550) and the June 5 high (24,520).**
⚑⚑ Volume 172,848 (+29.4%) and complex volume 363,115 (+55.4%) — **the high close was made on the heaviest turnover on this ledger.**
⚑ **Twelve of twelve aluminium contracts closed above their opens (eleven on September 8).**
⚑ The aluminium curve’s backwardation narrowed from −135 to **−65.**
⚑ Complex open interest fell only **1,627, so the main contract’s −11,327 is a roll, not an exit.**
⚑ MA5 **24,405.00 and MA10 24,204.50 cleared by 155.00 and 355.50; all six averages cleared.**
⚑ September 10 pre-open AL2610 **24,650 (+90), 90 above the September 9 close; five pre-open identities reconcile exactly.**
⚑⚑ LME cash settled **$3,352.00 (+$27.00, +0.81%) — the highest in twenty sessions.**
⚑⚑ The backwardation widened a **third consecutive step to $14.00 (−0.50 → +2.00 → +6.00 → +14.00). A widening cash premium against an unchanged warrant row is tightness outside registered stock.**
⚑⚑ **All six LME averages exact for a second consecutive edition, cash clearing them by 35.50 to 130.88.**
⚑ LME stocks at 244,525 mt remain the lowest since 1990 — a thirty-six-year low.
⚑ The ratio fell to **7.3270; London out-performed Shanghai for a second consecutive session.**
⚑⚑ **The basis test PASSED: spot +100 = board +100, basis exactly zero on the SMM caliber and −20 on CNAL — both inside yesterday’s ‘caught up’ band.**
⚑⚑ **SMM’s absolute A00 returned (24,560, +100) after nine login-walled editions — the largest data gap in this brief is filled.**
⚑ Six spot calibers rose for a **third consecutive session; five CNAL identities reconcile exactly.**
⚑⚑ **China’s August PPI +3.8%, a clear beat on a ~+3.2% expectation, with m/m turning from −0.7% to +0.4%.**
⚑⚑ **Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling prices +0.8% m/m and +20.8% y/y — the first macro print in weeks touching industrial metals directly.**
⚑ China’s core CPI **+1.0%; headline CPI up from +0.5% to +0.8% y/y.**
⚑ DXY **98.80, a third consecutive session below 99, month −1.03%.**
⚑ Brent **$100.71 (+2.85%) — raises the energy cost floor under smelting.**
⚑ Alumina cost caliber one (2,718) **held (AO2610 closed 2,720); the first close above cost caliber two moved IN from AO2705 to AO2704.**
⚑ Alumina complex open interest **+8,053 to 443,427 and complex volume +47.2%; curve inversions fell from two to one.**
⚑ The smelter margin proxy improved at both ends; compression along the curve narrowed from 490.12 to **420.12.**
⚑ European H1 alumina output **−1.8% against aluminium +4.9%, a ~4.09 million mt theoretical gap requiring seaborne cover.**
⚑ GCC primary output **−44% y/y in July; US Q1 primary output only 167,000 mt.**
⚑ Mexico’s anti-dumping duties on Chinese profiles — marginally bearish for Chinese domestic supply, but bullish for **global price layering.**
⚑ CARRIED: national weekly warehouse withdrawals 135,400 mt (+12,200), the highest for the period in nearly four years; Foshan −66,000 mt and Gongyi −35,000 mt over five weeks.
⚑ CARRIED: SHFE warrants described by a third party as down an eleventh consecutive week; bonded stock flat w/w.
⚑ CARRIED (conditional): Rusal’s four plants at mothballing risk on ~USD 800 million of annual losses; the 2.1 million mt alumina mothball proposal; Guinea’s export cap; Rio Tinto Yarwun −1.2 million mt/yr from October.
⚑ CARRIED: Chalco H1 metallurgical alumina output −14.19% y/y; ING on physical tightness.
⚑ **Two pre-written tests (the basis and the alumina cost line) resolved at the levels written down, so this brief’s method reliability is again recorded as rising.**

⊘ Bearish factors

⊘⊘ **Twelve of twelve contracts closed BELOW their highs, giving back 80 to 140 points. Not one carried its high into the close — the bid ran into supply.**
⊘⊘ Main-contract open interest **−11,327 on a rising price (the complex fell only 1,627, so the roll reading holds — but on the main-contract caliber the short-term signature is still covering).**
⊘⊘ **The night’s 24,630 was exceeded and then not held: the September 9 close of 24,560 is 105 below the intraday high, and the September 10 pre-open at 24,650 is still 15 below it. No new high pre-open.**
⊘⊘ LME stocks unchanged for a **fourth row and a third straight zero, so September 4’s −1,450 is confirmed an event.**
⊘⊘ **The sixty-session arithmetic: −72,000 mt since June 17, but only −2,400 mt since August 18 — the destock is running at 10.1% of its prior pace.**
⊘⊘ **The South China spreads widened a fourth consecutive session and accelerated (Nanhai 530, +50; Nanchu 260, +70) — regional dispersion is increasing.**
⊘ AO2610’s close clears cost caliber one by only **2 points (19 on September 8, 39 on September 4); AO2609 is still 23 below the line.**
⊘ AO2701’s 2,798 night print **did not survive the day, closing 2,773 — 25 below.**
⊘ AO2610 open interest **−28,336, the main-contract role lost to AO2701; AO2610 is still 18.68 below MA60 (September 4 basis).**
⊘ Alumina far-month volume was only 1,319 lots, **0.37% of the complex — the information content of forward pricing is falling.**
⊘ China’s August CPI **+0.8% missed the +0.9% consensus; manufacturing PMI 49.8 and services PMI 49.0 remain below fifty (carried).**
⊘ CARRIED: China’s August unwrought aluminium and product exports **626,000 mt (−17,000, −2.64% m/m), January–August +16.7% y/y, failing to hold July’s +18.7%.**
⊘ The Fed is ~60% priced for a hike with the blackout running to September 16; **US August CPI lands September 11 and structurally cannot contain the September crude impulse.**
⊘ The other side of Brent at $100.71: it makes a dovish September 16 harder.
⊘ CARRIED: Wood Mackenzie’s deficit cut to ~900,000 mt (August 4); Goldman’s USD 2,350/mt (undated, unweighted); Japanese Q4 premium offers USD 310–325/mt (−18% to −22% q/q).
⊘ CARRIED undated items: alumina weekly operating rate 84.04%; WA FOB USD 425 (−47 w/w); ~5.855 million mt of planned 2026–2027 new primary capacity.
⊘ Canada’s 25%→50% step-up in force with aluminium rod named; Thailand’s 21.94% and New Zealand’s 38% safeguard investigations both running.
⊘ **SMM’s Thursday inventory print was unpublished at writing time, so the hardest bullish datum on this page was not updated this edition.**
⊘ The three-region daily series is missing a **fourth consecutive edition; the SHFE weekly warrant print is missing again; LME volume and open interest are unavailable.**
⊘ **No AD contract data of any kind for September 9; the ADC12 caliber spread widens to five (24,750 / 23,950 / 24,000 / 23,615 / 23,500–23,800) and no weight is given.**
⊘ SMM’s regional premia, sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings are login-walled for a **tenth consecutive edition; the October fed funds strip is absent for a thirteenth.**
⊘ One industry feed carried both a wrong date and a wrong amount (Alcoa/South32), **discarded this edition — a reminder that every external item on this page needs primary-source verification.**

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Seven tests were written down yesterday, five resolved in this edition and four of the five resolved bullish, while the one that mattered most resolved split: the day session took neither pre-written branch, instead trading up to 24,665 — 35 above the September 8 night print of 24,630 and 145 above the June 5 high — before giving back 105 to close 24,560, a second consecutive sixty-session-high close at the hundredth percentile of both distributions, +110 or 0.45%, made on 172,848 lots and a complex turnover of 363,115 lots, up 55.4%, with twelve of twelve aluminium contracts closing above their opens and the curve’s backwardation narrowing from −135 to −65; but the same board read from the other side shows twelve of twelve also closing below their highs by 80 to 140 points with not one contract carrying its high into the close, and main-contract open interest falling 11,327 on a rising price, mitigated by a complex that fell only 1,627, so roughly 9,700 lots rolled rather than left; the second test passed cleanly and passed bullish, spot rising 100 against a board that rose 100 close-to-close, leaving the basis at exactly zero on the SMM caliber and −20 on CNAL, both inside the ‘0 to −20 is caught up’ band, and the reason there are two calibers is itself the best news on the page, because SMM’s absolute A00 quotation returned after nine login-walled editions at 24,560, filling the largest data gap in this brief; London is where the contradiction lives, since stocks printed 244,525 mt for a fourth consecutive row and a third straight zero, confirming September 4 as an event, and the newly computed sixty-session flow quantifies how completely the draw stopped — 72,000 mt or 22.75% since June 17, of which 69,600 came before August 18 and only 2,400 since, a pace of roughly 160 mt per interval against roughly 1,582 before, or 10.1% — yet the price disagrees outright, cash settling $3,352.00 for a twenty-session high with the backwardation widening a third consecutive step from −0.50 through +2.00 and +6.00 to +14.00, and when warrants stop moving while the cash premium keeps widening the more likely reading is that the warrant series is measuring the wrong thing; alumina passed one test and failed the other, holding cost caliber one by two points at a 2,720 close against 2,718 while AO2701’s 2,798 night print died in the day session at 2,773, alongside a formal main-contract handover to AO2701 on 206,172 lots and 187,658 of open interest, complex open interest up 8,053, one curve inversion instead of two, the first close above cost caliber two moving in from AO2705 to AO2704, and the margin compression narrowing from 490.12 to 420.12; macro delivered the first print in weeks that touches industrial metals directly, China’s August PPI at +3.8% against a ~+3.2% expectation with the month turning from −0.7% to +0.4% and non-ferrous smelting and rolling at +0.8% m/m and +20.8% y/y, against a CPI of +0.8% that slightly missed, a release-date conflict now resolved at September 9, a dollar below 99 for a third session at 98.80 whose channel still runs through the yen, and Brent at $100.71 that raises the smelting cost floor and simultaneously makes September 16 harder; the one number absent is SMM’s Thursday inventory print, for which the band is published in advance as always — 775,000 to 785,000 confirms a three-observation series, 786,000 to 795,000 is deceleration, above 800,000 is a stall — so the net is a stronger page than yesterday’s: financially strong on both exchanges, physically caught up rather than lagging, confirmed by Chinese producer prices and by an alumina cost floor that held by two points, against a London warrant flow that has been dead for three weeks, regional spreads widening a fourth session, and a board on which not one contract held its high (interpretation).

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day and Night Sessions (September 10)

⚑⚑ First is whether SMM’s Thursday inventory print lands inside the band written above. It is the only hard datum absent from this page and the condition is already published: 775,000–785,000 mt confirms the 36,000 mt/week pace as a three-observation series; 786,000–795,000 mt is deceleration toward the August pace; above 800,000 mt means the destock has stalled and the hardest bullish datum here is downgraded. Watch alongside it whether the three-region dailies are backfilled after four missing editions — if they land with South China carrying a high share, that corroborates the fourth consecutive widening of the Nanhai premium.
⚑⚑ Second is whether the day session closes above 24,665, or whether that high becomes the top. Every one of the twelve contracts failed its high on September 9, and the September 10 pre-open at 24,650 is still 15 below it. The discriminating observation is simple: a close above 24,665 makes September 9’s giveback consolidation; a close below 24,560 (the September 9 close and settlement) makes 24,665 the short-term top of this leg. Reference levels: 24,675 / 24,665 / 24,650 (pre-open) / 24,560 / 24,470 / 24,405.00 (MA5, with 155.00 of clearance).
⚑⚑ Third is whether open interest keeps falling or rebuilds. This edition classified the main contract’s −11,327 as a roll on the strength of a complex that fell only 1,627 — and that classification needs verification next edition. If main-contract open interest falls sharply again and the complex falls with it, the roll reading is void and it should be re-recorded as an exit; if the complex holds, the roll reading stands. Discriminating band: a complex change inside ±5,000 is a roll; a complex decline beyond −15,000 is an exit.
⚑ Fourth is which side gives way first — London’s $14.00 backwardation or London’s unchanged stock row. This is the clearest contradiction on the page. Watch whether cash holds $3,352.00 and challenges August 11’s $3,373.00; whether the backwardation widens a fourth step, narrows, or flips; and whether the stock row prints a fourth consecutive zero (further confirmation) or a fresh three-figure draw, in which case this edition’s characterisation must be re-examined next edition — that reversal condition is written here in advance, as the prior one was.
⚑ Fifth is how alumina’s 2,718 line is re-read now that AO2701 carries the book. AO2610 cleared it by only 2 points. From the next edition this brief reads AO2701 as the alumina main contract, so watch both: whether AO2610 finally closes beneath 2,718 (which downgrades the ‘alumina cost supports the aluminium floor’ leg by one notch), and where AO2701 (September 9 close 2,773, settlement 2,791) sits against cost caliber two at 2,826.21 — AO2704 has now closed above it for the first time, and if that first-crossing point moves further in to AO2703 or nearer, forward cost inflation is being priced faster.
⚑ Sixth is whether spot keeps pace a second session and whether the South China spreads start to converge. Both basis calibers landed inside the ‘caught up’ band this edition, and that is the key evidence on the quality of this advance. The band is unchanged: 0 to −20 is caught up; −50 or deeper is lagging. Watch alongside it the Nanhai − Shanghai 530 and Nanchu − Shanghai 260: a fifth consecutive widening pushes the regional explanation (logistics or regional balance) further ahead of the demand explanation; convergence would reopen the case for a genuine national demand improvement.
⚑ Seventh is positioning into US August CPI on September 11, plus China’s TSF and new loans. The Fed is ~60% priced for a hike with the blackout running, so price is the only signal available: watch whether DXY holds below 99 and whether Brent holds $100. On the China side, August total social financing and new loans are due this week and would be the second reading after PPI that bears on industrial demand.

Disclaimer

This brief is prepared for internal morning-meeting reference only. Data are drawn from the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s public daily files and third-party mirrors thereof, Westmetall, TradingEconomics, CME FedWatch, Reuters, CNAL, AL Circle, Mysteel, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s General Administration of Customs as reported, Wood Mackenzie, ING, publicly reported Goldman Sachs commentary, and public company disclosures including Alcoa’s own release. Items marked “⚑ / ⊘” are factual data; items marked “(interpretation)” or “(derivation)” are this brief’s judgement or calculation, and the two are distinguished explicitly throughout. Where sources disagree, all calibers are listed in parallel and are NOT reconciled — except where a primary source falsifies one of them, in which case the falsified caliber is discarded and the discarding is stated; this edition contains one such case (the date and amount of the Alcoa–South32 transaction). Derivations resting on an assumed coefficient (such as the 1.93 t alumina-per-tonne figure) state that assumption before the calculation. This edition continues the method of writing the discriminating condition before the number is known, and has published such a band in advance for SMM’s Thursday inventory print, so that readers can calibrate this brief’s method reliability accordingly. This brief does not constitute investment advice and accepts no responsibility for any decision made on the basis of it.