Sep 14, 2026 · The Oman Hormuz talks are postponed and Brent stops just short of $108. A fresh downstream print shows all seven segments up.

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点、本期新增内容与不可取得项

本期写于 9月14日(周一)北京时间约 08:55,即上期所日盘 09:00 开盘前数分钟,因此周一日盘尚无任何数据存在。
⚑⚑ 本期新增内容大量且主要不在上海:事先写下的霍尔木兹检验落地(伊朗—海合会会议推迟,阿曼官方媒体 9月13日;沙特提交修正案、巴林拒不出席、无地区国家确认参会),而 Brent 报 107.62 美元,距本简报自设的 108 美元阈值仅差 0.38 美元;9月13日格什姆岛附近一艘船舶遇袭,1 死 4 伤;本台账首次取得霍尔木兹通航量口径(战前每日 130–140 艘对现在约 5–7 艘);胡塞武装夺占曼德海峡佩里姆岛,第二个咽喉点受限;SMM 下游开工率调查取回且日期明确为 9月3日,含七个细分口径、七个全部上行,并由此取代本简报沿用三周的 8月13日 59.9%;取回上期所铝仓单镜像口径 212,073 吨(9月11日);有明确日期的 9月12日 FedWatch 读数 85.5%;周一美元指数读数;沿用的欧盟废铝条目由「计划禁令」更正为「出口关税已取消、非 OECD 废料禁令推迟至 2027年5月」;新增第五家价格预测(CRU,4月8日),使预测离散度扩大至现价的 50.40%。
⊘ 无法取得:周一日盘任何数据(尚未开盘);任何新的 Westmetall 行——9月11日仍为最后一行,连续第二期经重新查询确认;SMM 自身一手现货报价,连续第十四期;SMM 三地日度库存,连续第八期;周一 SMM 全国铝锭库存(发布时点在本稿之后);上期所周度仓单一手口径(仅取回镜像);10月联邦基金利率条,连续第十七期;LME 成交量与持仓量。

⚑⚑ 上海没有新价格:周一交易日仍是「已成交 38.3%、最新 24,000」

⚑⚑ 上期所 9月14日交易日自周五 21:00 即已开始。已印出(非预测):开盘 24,100 / 最高 24,100 / 最低 23,920 / 最新 24,000;AL2610 成交量 81,993 手,持仓 198,952(−12,438)。
⚑⚑ 81,993 手为周五整个交易日 213,873 手的 38.3%。数分钟后开始的日盘是这场行情的延续,不是它的开始(derivation)。
⊘⊘ 六条均线(沿用,基于 224 行序列、9月11日收盘基准):MA5 24,433.00 / MA10 24,311.00 / MA20 24,055.00 / MA30 24,029.83 / MA40 23,847.25 / MA60 23,601.25。
⊘⊘ 对照 24,000:低于 MA5 433.00、MA10 311.00、MA20 55.00、MA30 29.83;高于 MA40 152.75、MA60 398.75。六条已失守四条。
⊘⊘ 对照已印出的最低价 23,920(恰为 8月28日收盘价):低于 MA20 135.00、MA30 109.83,仅高于 MA40 72.75。
⊘ 事先写下的无结论区仍然「活着」:下沿 23,920、上沿 24,055.00、宽 135.00,24,000 位于其 59.3% 处。本简报据此不作任何定性(derivation)。

⚑⊘ 持仓的两个口径仍然矛盾,数分钟后开始的日盘将裁决

⊘⊘ 9月11日日盘是离场:全系持仓 −29,349 至 593,718,为本简报自设作废阈值的 1.96 倍;三期口径下离场以 34,381 对 12,624 压倒移仓;发生在本台账最重的成交量上(全系 414,471,+55.4%)。
⚑ 9月11日夜盘(周一交易日第一段)却是移仓:六合约合计仅 −1,612,AL2610 的 −12,438 被 AL2611 +5,421、AL2612 +3,601、AL2701 +1,851、AL2702 +258 吸收;且 AL2611 以 213,268 对 198,952 反超 AL2610。
⊘ 两者性质相反,本期继续不予调和(interpretation)。

⚑ 伦敦:沿用,且「沿用」连续第二期经重新查询验证

⚑ 本期重新查询 Westmetall,9月11日仍为最后一行(伦敦周六、周日休市,周一行在伦敦收盘前不可能存在)。
⊘ 现货结算 3,274.00 美元(−69.00,−2.06%),本台账最大单日现货跌幅;三个月 3,250.00 美元(−68.00);backwardation +24.00 美元,五期来首次收窄且仅 1.00 美元;库存 244,100 吨(−250),低于 −500 实质门槛,归类为噪音。
⚑ 六条 LME 均线沿用且连续第六期精确:MA5 3,320.80 / MA10 3,293.80 / MA20 3,256.05 / MA30 3,263.48 / MA40 3,244.04 / MA60 3,217.94。
⊘ 现货已失守 MA5(−46.80)与 MA10(−19.80);高于 MA20 仅 17.95、MA30 仅 10.52、MA40 29.96、MA60 56.06——本轮最窄支撑余量。非单调排列持续:MA30 高于 MA20 7.43 美元。
⚑ 平行口径经重新查询、未变:TradingEconomics 9月11日 3,256.65 美元,日 −0.70%、月 −1.52%、年 +20.62%;与 Westmetall 现货差 17.35 美元、与三个月差 6.65 美元,符合不同合约参照而非数据冲突。
⚑ 本期新增一条上海仓单镜像:上期所铝仓库库存 212,073 吨(9月11日),来自第三方镜像而非上期所周度仓单一手口径。与伦敦 244,100 吨合计,可见交易所库存 456,173 吨,上海为伦敦的 86.88%(derivation)。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⊘ 现货沿用至周五,并必须明确标注其对周一已属陈旧

⚑ SMM 镜像口径(9月11日):A00 24,240(−320);A00 佛山 24,430(−350);ADC12 24,300(−150)。
⚑ CNAL 五口径(9月11日):上海 24,230(−310);长江 24,240(−320);中原 24,240(−320);南海/佛山 24,710(−340);广东南储 24,440(−360)。
⊘ 区域升水全线收窄:南海 − 上海 480(前 530);南储 − 上海 210(前 260);长江 − 上海 +10,未变。华南领跌 340–360,对华东 310–320。
⚑ 基差:对 9月11日收盘 +5、对结算 +50。
⊘⊘ 但对周一已印出的 24,000,基差为 +240。那不是现货偏紧的证据,而是一条等待重新定价的陈旧报价;本简报在 SMM 发布之前将基差记为「未知」而非 +5(interpretation)。
⊘ SMM 一手报价、区域成交升贴水、出货与采购意愿指数、氧化铝指数与中铝五项挂牌连续第十四期需登录,本简报不发布任何情绪指标、不以代理替代。
⊘ LME 现货 3,274.00 美元;ADC12 镜像 24,300,其六口径离散仍未调和:南海/大理成交 24,650–24,850(无日期);SMM 23,950;长江现货合金 24,000;长江华东综合 23,615;佛山主流 23,500–23,800。A356.2 24,400 沿用;AD2610 沿用 23,545,自 9月10日起无新数据。

⊘⊘ 氧化铝:沿用于本台账最差的一张表,但本期首次出现成本端反馈项

⊘⊘ AO2701(9月11日日盘):开 2,762 / 高 2,792 / 低 2,691 / 收 2,697 / 结算 2,731;结算 −39(−1.41%)、收盘对收盘 −61(−2.21%);成交 275,018(+69.0%),持仓 220,066(+24,675,+12.63%);全系持仓 462,497(+20,900)。
⊘⊘ AO2701(周五夜盘,已属周一交易日):2,673(−58,−2.12%),成交 92,893,持仓 235,026(再 +14,960)。AO2610 2,651(−44) / AO2611 2,659(−45) / AO2612 2,672(−39) / AO2702 2,690(−55)——五个全跌,且仓位仍在增加。
⚑⚑ 六条 AO2701 均线沿用且精确(160 行序列):MA5 2,757.00 / MA10 2,753.10 / MA20 2,737.15 / MA30 2,738.67 / MA40 2,749.22 / MA60 2,781.45。
⊘⊘ 2,673 低于全部六条,幅度 84.00 / 80.10 / 64.15 / 65.67 / 76.22 / 108.45——每一条都比 9月11日收盘时更宽(收盘时为 60.00 / 56.10 / 40.15 / 41.67 / 52.22 / 84.45)(derivation)。
⊘⊘ 成本口径一(2,718)已两次失败:AO2610 收 2,667,清算链 +39 → +19 → +2 → −3 → −51;周一场内的 2,651 较该线低 67。成本口径二(2,826.21)在整条曲线(至 2027年8月)上均未定价,最高收盘为 AO2708 2,815,仍低 11.21。
⊘ 首尾 contango +148(为前端的 5.55%),自 +175、+184 连续第三次收窄。
⚑⊘ 本期新增——首个成本端反馈项:中国氧化铝厂平均利润已收窄至约 100 元/吨,部分厂已亏损,北方多家实施减产(无日期)。以周一场内 2,673 计,100 元相当于 3.74% 的利润率(derivation)。这是本台账上第一个可能令氧化铝跌势自我终止的机制,因其无日期,列示而不赋权。
⊘ 无日期区域现货口径:广西 2,710(−20)、山西 2,720(−15),连同此前沿用的 2,707,三者均高于 AO2701 收盘 2,697——盘面在三个口径下都贴水于自身现货参照。

⊘⊘ 利润代理:本期必须明说它现在高估利润

⊘ 主力配对(AL2610/AO2701,1.93 吨/吨假设):24,000 − 1.93 × 2,673 = 18,841.11,对 9月11日收盘的 19,029.79,再压缩 188.68(derivation)。配对同月(AL2610/AO2610):24,000 − 1.93 × 2,651 = 18,883.57。
⊘⊘ 而该代理不含任何能源项。周一上午 Brent +2.88%、沙特东西输油管仍关闭的情况下,18,841.11 是利润的上界而非估计值:氧化铝一端在夜盘把 188.68 元/吨还给了冶炼厂,电力一端拿走了本简报无法量化的数额(interpretation)。

三 · 库存

⊘ 国内沿用整体,一个缺口部分补齐,区域缺口进入第八期

⊘ SMM 全国铝锭社会库存沿用 796,000 吨(9月10日);SMM 于周一、周四发布,本稿写作时周一数字尚未发布。
完整链条:8/24 860,000 → 8/27 852,000 → 8/31 837,000 → 9/3 815,000 → 9/7 802,000 → 9/10 796,000。
⊘ 沿用判定不变:周四对周四 −19,000,为此前两点速度 36,000 的 52.8%、8月自身约 23,935 的 79.4%;周一至周四仅 −6,000。去库减半,而非停止。自 7月初约 113 万吨高点累计 −334,000 吨(−29.6%)。
⚑ Mysteel 全国口径沿用:8/31 809,000 → 9/3 789,000 → 9/7 774,000 → 9/10 768,000;SMM 减 Mysteel 四个日期为 28,000 / 26,000 / 28,000 / 28,000,恒定定义性偏移结论成立。
⚑ Mysteel 自身分析口径沿用:7月以来累计去库约 278,000 吨至 8月下旬约 850,000 吨,7月周均去库 54,800 吨,为同期三年最高。
⊘ SMM 三地日度库存连续第八期缺失,沿用 9月3日:合计 641,000 吨(广东 143,000、无锡 300,000、巩义 198,000),去库 −10,500。
⚑ 本期部分补齐:上期所铝仓库库存镜像 212,073 吨(9月11日)。一手周度仓单口径仍缺失,沿用的第三方「周环比约 −3%」在符号上一致,但与该镜像水平未作算术调和。
⚑ LME 244,100 吨(9月11日,−250),本期验证未变。
⊘⊘ 库存对价格的作用(interpretation):去库仍在进行但速度减半,支撑成立而力度下降;伦敦库存已近乎静止(8月18日以来每间隔约 166 吨,此前约 1,582 吨);而没有三地分解,周一的全国数字只能回答「减速是否延续」,不能回答「减速发生在哪里」。本期取回的 9月3日下游开工率(七个全部上行)在边际上更支持「到货集中」而非「需求停滞」的解释。

四 · 宏观因素

⊘⊘ 能源是本期的全部,而它在上期所开盘之前就已发生

⊘⊘ Brent 107.62 美元,+3.01(+2.88%)对周五结算 104.61;月 +18.43%、年 +59.58%。高于本简报追踪的 100 美元线 7.62%,低于自设的 108 美元阈值 0.38 美元(0.35%)。
⊘⊘ WTI 102.83 美元,+2.78(+2.78%);月 +21.69%、年 +62.45%。
⊘⊘ 原因有名有姓:伊朗—海合会霍尔木兹磋商推迟(阿曼官方媒体,9月13日;德黑兰与马斯喀特共同决定,系部分地区国家要求,以「创造有利于建设性对话的条件」),其间沙特提交修正案,担忧拟议措辞实质上确立一种新现状、为沙特及其他海合会国家所不能接受;巴林已明确不出席;无任何地区国家确认参会。会址口径不一(预告为马斯喀特,推迟报道为塞拉莱),本期不予调和。
⊘ 沙特东西原油管道仍关闭,系 9月10–11日自伊拉克领土发射的无人机袭击所致;全长 1,200 公里至红海延布。两个口径并列且不予调和:约 500 万桶/日的海湾改道量,与 700 万桶/日的管道能力;路透口径称该中断威胁全球石油供应的 4%。
⊘ 9月13日一艘船舶在格什姆岛附近过峡时被不明弹药击中,起火并弃船撤离;伊朗国家广播机构 IRIB 口径为 1 人死亡、4 人受伤。顺序比吨位更重要:袭击发生在通航磋商前一天,而磋商随后被推迟。
⊘ 霍尔木兹通航口径(本台账首次取得):战前每日 130–140 艘,现约 5–7 艘,自 2月开战以来下降约 95%;按中值 6 对 135 计为 −95.56%(derivation)。这是海湾电解铝减产至今未能恢复的机械性原因。
⊘ 胡塞武装已夺占曼德海峡佩里姆岛——第二个咽喉点受限。沿用:胡塞对阿布哈、海米斯穆谢特、吉赞、纳季兰的袭击,73 人以上受伤。
⚑ 一条对冲性需求口径,列示:据报道 IEA 预计 2026年需求收缩 250 万桶。
⊘ 利率:有明确日期的 9月12日 CME FedWatch 读数 85.5%(9月16日加息 25 个基点),对 9月11日的 85.6% 为 −0.1 个百分点——重定价已经停止。链条:48.4%(8/11)→ 约 66%(8/31)→ 约 69.3%(CPI 前)→ 85.6%(CPI 后)→ 85.5%(9/12)。事先写下的 95% 阈值尚距 9.5 个百分点。目标区间沿用 3.50%–3.75%,至 7月28–29日已连续五次按兵不动。
⊘ 美国 8月 CPI:整体环比 +0.4%、同比 +3.4%;核心环比 +0.3%、同比 +2.4%;汽油 +3.9%。EY-Parthenon 由「按兵不动」改判加息 25 个基点至 3.75%–4.00%。
⊘ 美债:10年约 4.97%–4.98%,为 2023年10月以来最高;30年 5.36%;2年约 4.58%。
⚑ 美元指数:99.132(周一 9月14日),+0.010(+0.01%),月 −0.45%、年 +1.94%。同一来源另有一平行报价 99.185(+0.0628,+0.06%);两者并列,不作取舍。对沿用的 9月11日 99.095,低口径下为 +0.037。
⚑ 本页唯一真正建设性的宏观判断(interpretation):加息概率 85.5% 而美元仍持平于 99.5 之下,说明美元渠道尚未传导,宏观压力被部分隔离;主导通道仍在日元与日本央行一侧。
⊘ 中国(沿用且有日期):7月工业增加值同比 +4.5%(预期 +4.8%);7月社零 +0.6%(预期 +1.5%,6月 +1.0%);7月末固定资产投资累计 −6.7%(预期 −6.0%)。8月经济活动数据于 9月15日(周二)公布,社零预期约 +0.6%(与 7月持平),固投累计预期走弱至约 −7%。
⚑ 中国出口线(9月8日):8月未锻轧铝及铝材出口 626,000 吨,同比 +17.2%(去年同期 534,000),但环比 −2.6%(7月 643,000);1–8月 467 万吨,同比 +16.7%,8月高于八个月均值 583,750 吨/月 7.24%。
⊘⊘ 宏观净判断(interpretation):能源明确偏空于「成本抬升 + 通胀约束收紧」的双重意义上(它同时抬高电解成本并使 9月16日更难转鸽);利率与美元本期中性(重定价停止、美元持平);中国需求侧在公布之前已偏空(社零预期与 7月持平、固投预期继续走弱);出口是唯一明确偏多的中国口径,但其环比已转负。

五 · 基本面

⚑⚑ 本期最好的一条消息是一个日期:SMM 下游开工率调查取回,日期为 9月3日,七个全部上行

⚑⚑ SMM 龙头加工企业开工率(9月3日,周环比):整体 61.0%(+0.8 个百分点);铝箔 71.1%(+0.4);板带 69.4%(+0.2);线缆 64.0%(+1.0);原生铝合金 59.0%(+1.2);再生铝 51.6%(+1.4,全组最大);铝型材 51.1%(+0.5)。七个口径全部上行。
⚑ SMM 自身表述:进入 9月传统旺季,此前扰动逐步出清,各细分板块开工率普遍出现修复性增长,储能需求为多板块共同驱动,再生铝涨幅最大。
⚑ 算术校验:六个细分变动均值为 +0.783 个百分点,对整体 +0.8,内部一致(derivation)。
⊘⊘ 而这项数据同时揭示本简报自身的一项错误:本简报已在自己的空方论据里沿用「龙头下游开工率 59.9%(8月13日)」三周,而一个更新、有日期的数字一直存在。正确口径为 9月3日 61.0%,三周 +1.1 个百分点;沿用的再生铝 49.1% 由 51.6% 取代,+2.5 个百分点。两项沿用数字退役,错误归属本简报(derivation)。
⊘ 但铝型材现在有三个口径且不予调和:SMM 有日期的 51.1%(+0.5,9月3日);另一项无日期调查的 57.6%(+0.2),相差 6.5 个百分点、相对高 12.72%;以及本简报沿用的「铝型材产能利用率 37.05% 周期底部」——这是第三种计量。三者全部列示,本简报此后引用有日期的 51.1%。
⚑ 定性、无日期、列示不赋权:光伏铝框企业订单「充足」,足以支撑月底前高开工;汽车与电力板块新订单显著增加;北方建筑旺季与光伏框交付带动型材修复。
⚑ 名义替代项(9月12日):Apple iPhone 18 Pro Max 由钛合金框架改为铝一体成型机身,再生铝含量 40%——吨位不重要,仅记方向。

⊘ 海外供应:沿用,并新增一家有日期的预测机构

⊘⊘ 新增 CRU(4月8日):LME 铝价峰值或超 4,000 美元/吨,2026年二季度均值 3,800 美元/吨;依据为中东减产——EGA Al Taweelah 2026年产量或减最多 120 万吨;Alba 1–3 线 31.1 万吨/年(总产能 19%);EGA 与 Alba 合计产能约 430 万吨/年;Qatalum 60% 开工相当于 −39 万吨/年;伊朗阿拉克两条电解系列关闭、阿巴斯港减产;需求侧仅低 0.4 个百分点作为部分对冲。
⊘ 沿用的海外项:EGA Al Taweelah 氧化铝厂 50% 爬产目标(7月10日,2026年底满产,2025年产 240 万吨、约占 EGA 自身需求一半)对 电解铝厂电解槽复产(8月11日,1,262 槽中 227 槽)——两项不同资产,上期已作为本简报自身口径错误解决;Alunorte 已恢复满产;力拓 Yarwun 自 10月 −120 万吨/年;美铝 2026年指引下调 20–30 万吨;美铝收购南32铝资产(6月30日,约 41 亿美元);Qatalum 约 60% 铭牌;Alba 1–3 线停;7月海合会产量同比 −44%;几内亚约 1.5 亿吨/年出口上限目标;Rusal Friguia 铁路脱轨(8月24日,约 45 万吨/年依赖铁路的精炼产能,另有 60 万吨/年装机口径);加拿大 25%→50% 关税升级并点名铝杆;墨西哥对中国与美国双来源铝型材的最终反倾销税(9月10日);SMM 海外综述 2026–2027 计划新增一手产能约 585.5 万吨。
⚑⚑ 本期更正——欧盟废铝条目并非「推迟」,而是「取消」:原定 9月23日公布的铝废料出口关税已由委员会执行副主席 Séjourné 撤回,原因之一是内部评估认为其仅能覆盖约一半相关废料出口,原因之二是担忧其影响欧印自贸协定签署;替代方案为《废物运输条例》下的授权法案,禁止非危险废物向非 OECD 国家出口,预计 11月定稿、2027年5月生效,对部分欧盟候选国可能设例外,并在 2026年底前采纳前进行公众咨询。欧洲铝业协会公开表达不满。
⊘ 因此一项沿用的偏多供应条目变为一项 2027年条目:近端工具已消失,最早生效时点(2027年5月)晚于本页所有价格预测;欧洲废料在 2026年旺季全程仍可出口。该条目更正、重新标注日期,并移出偏多清单(interpretation)。
⚑ 新增(9月12日):NALCO—EGA 技术许可合作在奥里萨邦首席部长访问 EGA 杰贝阿里期间被重点提及——该运营方正是其 Al Taweelah 氧化铝厂爬产与电解槽复产同时列于本简报两张台账上的主体。

⊘ 国内一手供应与氧化铝成本:沿用,且口径冲突未解

⊘ 沿用:SMM 口径国内运行产能约 4,378 万吨/年,与本简报同时沿用的 4,500 万吨上限 + 98.4% 开工率配对仍未调和;Mysteel 自身 89 家电解铝厂口径为 2025年产量 4,440 万吨(+2.7% 同比)、开工率 97%(+1.7 个百分点);四川减产约 20.5 万吨/年(无日期)。
⊘ 氧化铝成本与供应沿用:9月预焙阳极现货 5,730 元/吨、承兑 5,745;9月氟化铝招标 11,500–12,000 元/吨;全国氧化铝周度开工率 84.04%(−0.8 个百分点,无日期);SMM 西澳 FOB 氧化铝 425 美元/吨(周 −47 美元,无日期);中铝上半年冶金级氧化铝产量 738 万吨(同比 −14.19%);CERA 2026年氧化铝过剩 179 万吨;中国 1–6月氧化铝进口 227.7 万吨(同比 +749.1%);2026年国内计划新增氧化铝产能约 860 万吨,一个口径下全年过剩超 1,000 万吨;广西防城港 240 万吨/年氧化铝新产能;AL Circle 2026年冶金级氧化铝需求约 1.452 亿吨,广义市场近 1.47 亿吨。
⚑⊘ 而本期的成本端反馈项正指向相反方向:氧化铝厂平均利润约 100 元/吨(3.74%)、部分亏损、北方减产。这是过剩叙事内部第一次出现自我限制机制;因其无日期,列示而不赋权(interpretation)。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⊘ 本期无法发布任何新的现货成交或意愿数据,并明确说明原因

⊘ 华东、华中、华南现货成交与升贴水沿用至 9月11日(见第二节),周一现货报价在本稿写作时尚未发布。
⊘ 出货意愿指数与采购意愿指数连续第十四期需登录,本简报不发布、不以代理替代。
⚑ 可据以陈述的区域结构(9月11日):五个区域升水全线收窄,华南领跌(−340 至 −360)对华东(−310 至 −320);南海 − 上海 480(前 530)、南储 − 上海 210(前 260)、长江 − 上海 +10(未变)。
⊘⊘ 关于「现货跟随而未领跌」的判断,本期维持上期作出的降级:该判断所依据的 +5 基差是对一个已不再是活价的收盘价算出的;对周一已印出的 24,000,基差为 +240。在 SMM 周一发布之前,本简报对现货强弱不作定性(interpretation)。
⚑ 唯一可作方向性替代的现货侧证据是需求侧而非报价侧:9月3日七个下游口径全部上行,其中再生铝 +1.4、原生铝合金 +1.2、线缆 +1.0。若周一现货报价在盘面下移后仅小幅跟随,该数据将是可引用的理由;若基差直接塌向负值,则该数据被推翻——本简报将其写为一项待检验项,而非一项结论(interpretation)。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

⚑ 偏多因素(18 项)

⚑⚑ 9月3日 SMM 下游开工率七个口径全部上行,整体 61.0%(+0.8 个百分点)——本页唯一既有日期又转好的需求数据。
⚑⚑ 再生铝 51.6%(+1.4)取代沿用的 49.1%;原生铝合金 59.0%(+1.2);线缆 64.0%(+1.0)。
⚑⚑ 霍尔木兹通航仍在 −95%,海湾减产无法凭一纸公报恢复;磋商推迟本身即供应端偏多。
⚑⚑ 沙特东西管道关闭、佩里姆岛被夺占,两个咽喉点同时受限,海湾铝供应回归路径进一步延后。
⚑ Brent 107.62 美元、月 +18.43%——抬高全球电解成本底部(此项对铝价为偏多、对宏观为偏空,此处仅记成本侧)。
⚑ CRU(4月8日)峰值 4,000 美元以上、二季度均值 3,800 美元,为本页最高预测。
⚑ 摩根大通(8月21日)Q3 3,800、Q4 3,700、2026均值 3,587(高于现货 9.56%),依据为中东减产削减全球供应 6% 以上、霍尔木兹中断与 4,500 万吨上限下的 170 万吨缺口。
⚑ LME 库存近乎静止且处 36年低位附近:8月18日以来每间隔约 166 吨,对此前约 1,582 吨。
⚑ backwardation 仍为 +24.00 美元,且在现货单日下跌 69 美元时仅收窄 1.00 美元——近端实物结构未随价格让步。
⚑ 国内去库仍在进行:9/10 796,000 吨,自 7月初高点 −334,000 吨(−29.6%)。
⚑ Mysteel 口径 7月周均去库 54,800 吨为三年同期最高,其判断为去库趋势将延续。
⚑ 氧化铝厂平均利润约 100 元/吨、部分亏损、北方减产——过剩叙事的第一个自我限制机制。
⚑ 三个氧化铝现货口径(2,707 / 2,710 / 2,720)全部高于 AO2701 收盘 2,697,盘面贴水于自身实物参照。
⚑ 中国 8月出口 626,000 吨、同比 +17.2%,高于八个月均值 7.24%。
⚑ FedWatch 重定价停止(85.5% 对 85.6%),95% 阈值尚距 9.5 个百分点。
⚑ 美元持平于 99.132 且低于 99.5,美元渠道尚未传导。
⚑ 周五夜盘性质为移仓而非离场(六合约合计仅 −1,612),且 9月11日日盘 24,075 关键位曾守到最后一跳。
⚑ 名义需求替代项:iPhone 18 Pro Max 改用铝一体机身(40% 再生铝);NALCO—EGA 技术许可合作。

⊘ 偏空因素(30 项)

⊘⊘ 周一交易日已在 MA20 之下开局且已成交 38.3%:24,000 低于 MA20 55.00、MA30 29.83,六条均线已失守四条。
⊘⊘ 最低价 23,920 已把仅存的 MA40(23,847.25)逼近至 72.75 点。
⊘⊘ Brent +2.88% 至 107.62、WTI +2.78% 至 102.83,在通胀侧使 9月16日更难转鸽。
⊘⊘ 霍尔木兹磋商推迟且无任何地区国家确认参会,地缘溢价无法在近端消退(此项对宏观偏空)。
⊘ 沙特提交修正案、巴林拒不出席,分歧在海合会内部而非仅对伊朗,复会时点不可预期。
⊘ 9月13日格什姆岛附近船舶遇袭(1 死 4 伤),风险事件仍在发生而非收敛。
⊘⊘ 氧化铝 AO2701 周一场内 2,673 低于全部六条均线 64.15–108.45,且每一条幅度都比收盘时更宽。
⊘⊘ 氧化铝持仓仍在建仓式增加:夜盘再 +14,960 至 235,026,叠加日盘 +24,675——新空而非多头平仓。
⊘⊘ 成本口径一 2,718 已两次失败,周一 AO2610 2,651 低于该线 67;成本口径二 2,826.21 在整条曲线上未定价。
⊘ 首尾 contango 连续第三次收窄至 +148,市场把过剩定价到远期。
⊘⊘ 主力配对利润代理 18,841.11 现为上界而非估计值:氧化铝端还回 188.68,电力端拿走不可量化的数额。
⊘⊘ 欧盟废铝出口关税被取消(非推迟),替代措施最早 2027年5月生效,一项沿用偏多条目移出清单。
⊘ CRU 与摩根大通两条最高预测均为「峰值已过」路径(CRU 指向 2026年二季度,摩根大通指向 Q3 2026),而 9月现货结算为 3,274.00。
⊘ 五家价格预测离散度扩大至 1,650 美元 = 现货的 50.40%(高盛无日期 2,350 对 CRU 4,000),离散度本身即为不可定价性。
⊘ 2026年全球平衡四个口径离散 12.14 倍(AL Circle 约 14 万吨、ING 约 20 万吨、Wood Mackenzie 约 90 万吨、摩根大通 170 万吨)。
⊘ ING 条目为 2025年12月8日、已陈旧九个月,其 2,900 美元 2026均值低于 9月11日现货 11.42%。
⊘ 国内去库速度已减半:周四对周四 −19,000,为此前速度的 52.8%;周一至周四仅 −6,000。
⊘ SMM 三地日度库存连续第八期缺失,「减速发生在哪里」仍无法回答。
⊘ LME 现货已失守 MA5 与 MA10,高于 MA20 仅 17.95、MA30 仅 10.52——本轮最窄支撑余量;且 MA30 高于 MA20 7.43 美元的非单调排列持续。
⊘ 9月11日现货单日 −69.00 美元(−2.06%)为本台账最大单日跌幅。
⊘ 9月11日日盘全系持仓 −29,349,为自设作废阈值的 1.96 倍;三期口径下离场 34,381 对移仓 12,624。
⊘ AL2611 持仓已反超 AL2610(213,268 对 198,952),主力口径可能在本期切换。
⊘ 五个区域现货升水全线收窄、华南领跌;对周一 24,000 的基差为 +240,属陈旧报价。
⊘ 周二中国 8月社零预期约 +0.6%(与 7月持平),而 7月自身已不及 +1.5% 的预期;固投累计预期由 −6.7% 走弱至约 −7%。
⊘ 中国 8月铝材出口环比 −2.6%(626,000 对 7月 643,000)。
⊘ 美国 8月核心 CPI 环比 +0.3%(前值 +0.2%)、整体同比 +3.4%;EY-Parthenon 改判加息 25 个基点。
⊘ 美债 10年约 4.97%–4.98% 为 2023年10月以来最高,30年 5.36%。
⊘ 铝型材口径分歧本身即风险:有日期的 51.1% 与无日期的 57.6% 相差 6.5 个百分点,且沿用的产能利用率 37.05% 仍处周期底部。
⊘ SMM 一手报价与意愿指数连续第十四期缺失;上期所周度仓单一手口径仍缺失(仅取回镜像);10月联邦基金利率条连续第十七期缺失。
⊘ 沿用:CERA 氧化铝过剩 179 万吨、国内计划新增 860 万吨、进口同比 +749.1%、Alunorte 已复产、防城港 240 万吨新线——氧化铝过剩的名单本期没有一项被移除。

八 · 一句话观点

本期写于 09:00 开盘前数分钟,上海没有新价格,而隔夜落地的那项事先写下的检验以三十八美分之差落进了它自己的「不作净定性」分支——霍尔木兹磋商并非谈崩,而是没有举行(阿曼官方媒体 9月13日:德黑兰与马斯喀特共同决定推迟,系部分地区国家要求,沙特提交修正案反对「确立新现状」的措辞、巴林拒不出席、无任何地区国家确认参会),外交支腿因此触发;而 Brent 报 107.62 美元(+3.01,+2.88%),距本简报自己写下的 108 美元仅差 0.38 美元、即 0.35%,价格支腿落空,故事先写下的答案就是「双向、不作净定性」,这三十八美分如实记录而不四舍五入;围绕它,能源一侧对冶炼厂而言全方向变差——WTI 102.83(+2.78%)、Brent 月 +18.43% 年 +59.58%、已高于 100 美元线 7.62%,9月13日格什姆岛附近一艘船 1 死 4 伤,沙特东西管道仍关闭(两个口径:约 500 万桶/日改道量对 700 万桶/日能力;路透称威胁全球供应 4%),胡塞夺占佩里姆岛使第二个咽喉点同时受限,而霍尔木兹通航首次有了数字:战前每日 130–140 艘对现在约 5–7 艘,−95%,这就是海湾减产至今无法恢复、也无法凭一纸公报恢复的机械性原因;与之相对,本页最好的一条消息是一个日期,而它要本简报承认一项错误:SMM 下游开工率调查取回、日期为 9月3日、七个细分口径全部上行(整体 61.0%(+0.8)、铝箔 71.1、板带 69.4、线缆 64.0(+1.0)、原生铝合金 59.0(+1.2)、再生铝 51.6(+1.4,最大)、型材 51.1(+0.5),六个细分变动均值 +0.783 对整体 +0.8 内部一致),这取代了本简报三周来放在自己空方论据里的 8月13日 59.9% 与再生铝 49.1%,两项退役、错误归属本简报;另有两项更正:欧盟废铝出口关税不是推迟而是取消(原定 9月23日公布,由 Séjourné 撤回,部分因仅覆盖约一半相关出口、部分因欧印自贸协定,替代的非 OECD 废料禁令预计 11月定稿、2027年5月生效,晚于本页所有价格预测,欧洲铝业协会公开不满),以及新增第五家预测 CRU(4月8日,峰值 4,000 美元以上、二季度均值 3,800)使预测离散度由 1,450 美元扩大至 1,650 美元、即现货的 50.40%,并使一个模式更难忽视——本页两条最高预测都是「峰值已过」路径;氧化铝一侧则第一次出现自我限制机制,厂平均利润约 100 元/吨(3.74%)、部分亏损、北方减产,但无日期,列示不赋权,而盘面本身仍在最差的一张表上:AO2701 周一场内 2,673 低于全部六条均线 64.15–108.45、每一条都比收盘更宽,且持仓仍在增加,主力配对利润代理 18,841.11 因不含能源项而只是上界;上海则一个数字都没有新增:周一交易日已成交 38.3%、最新 24,000、六条均线已失守四条、23,920 已把 MA40 逼近至 72.75 点、无结论区仍然活着;综合而言,铝价此刻被夹在一组「更好且有日期」的需求数据与一组「更差且正在发生」的能源冲击之间,而日历承担其余——今日 SMM 全国铝锭数字、周二中国 8月经济活动数据(社零预期与 7月持平、固投预期走弱至约 −7%)、周三带点阵图的 FOMC(已定价 85.5%)、周四至周五的日本央行;最诚实的表述是:结构目前仅在收盘口径上完好,决定它的那场交易已在 MA20 之下进行了三分之一以上,需求一栏因一个本应三周前就拿到的数字而改善,而成本底部在电力端上移的同一时刻在氧化铝端下移(interpretation)。

九 · 今日日盘与今夜夜盘关注清单(9月14日)

⚑⚑ 第一,MA20(24,055.00)与无结论区——判别沿用原文,不作修改。 周一交易日已印出开 24,100 / 高 24,100 / 低 23,920 / 最新 24,000,已成交 81,993 手(周五全日的 38.3%)。日盘收在 24,055.00 之上,则周五夜盘破位记为超跌;收在 23,920 之下,则升级为趋势转折,下一参照 MA40 23,847.25;收在 23,920–24,055 之间仍记为无结论区。参考位:24,311.00(MA10)/ 24,235(9/11 收盘)/ 24,100(周一开盘兼最高)/ 24,075(已守住的关键位)/ 24,055.00(MA20)/ 24,029.83(MA30)/ 24,000(周一最新)/ 23,920(周一最低,即 8/28 收盘)/ 23,847.25(MA40)/ 23,601.25(MA60)。
⚑⚑ 第二,持仓两口径的裁决与主力切换。 9月11日日盘为离场(全系 −29,349,自设阈值的 1.96 倍;三期离场 34,381 对移仓 12,624),夜盘为移仓(六合约仅 −1,612)。判别带沿用:全系持仓再降 10,000 以上,则离场为趋势,应下调对本轮全部反弹的权重;回升 5,000 以上,则周五日盘属一次性平仓潮;±5,000 以内记为待定。同时观察 AL2611 日盘持仓是否确认超过 AL2610(夜盘已 213,268 对 198,952)——一旦在日盘确认,本简报当期切换主力口径并明确标注。
⚑⚑ 第三,今日 SMM 全国铝锭库存,承担两周信息量。 链条 9/7 802,000 → 9/10 796,000,周四对周四 −19,000(此前速度的 52.8%)。判别带沿用且完整覆盖数轴:≤ 785,000 = 去库重新加速;785,001–792,000 = 维持当前减速节奏;792,001–799,000 = 进一步减速;≥ 799,001 = 停滞或累库。同时观察 Mysteel 同日差值是否仍在 26,000–28,000(偏离则「恒定定义性偏移」结论需重审),以及三地分解能否在连续第八期缺失后补发。
⚑⚑ 第四,Brent 的两条线与磋商是否重启——本期唯一「已触发一半」的检验。 判别(据本期结果重写):Brent 站上 108.00 并守住,则成本底部一项升级,同时宏观约束加大,维持双向不作净定性;Brent 回落至 104.61 以下(周五结算),则周一涨幅属推迟消息的一次性反应,不改变成本底部结论;Brent 跌破 100.00 且出现有明确日期的复会安排,则成本底部一项应下调权重,对铝净偏空;若仅有复会传闻而无可核实安排,则不作任何记录。另需观察沙特东西管道是否复输——这是比会议更直接的价格变量。
⚑ 第五,周三 FOMC 与点阵图之前的定价,基准为 9月12日 85.5%。 判别带沿用并据新基准:定价升至 95% 以上且 DXY 站上 99.5,则美元渠道开始传导,对铝进一步偏空;定价维持 85%–92% 而 DXY 仍在 99 附近横盘,则「日元/日本央行为主导通道」的判断继续成立,宏观压力被部分隔离;定价回落至 80% 以下,则本轮宏观冲击属过度反应,对铝偏多。10月联邦基金利率条若终于可得,应立即取回以还原期限结构。
⚑ 第六,周二中国 8月工业增加值、固投、社零与房价。 预期:社零约 +0.6%(与 7月持平),固投累计约 −7%(7月末 −6.7%)。判别带沿用:社零 ≥ +1.5% 或固投累计好于 −6.0%,则「旺季未兑现」的判定应部分撤回,对铝偏多;社零 +0.3% 至 +1.0% 且固投在 −7.5% 至 −6.5%,则符合预期、维持现有判定;社零 ≤ 0% 或固投差于 −8.0%,则下游需求一项整体移出多头清单,对铝明确偏空。本期新增交叉校验:若该组数据偏弱而 9月3日七项全部上行的下游开工率同时成立,则应优先采信有日期的企业层面开工率,并把宏观弱势归因于地产而非铝下游(interpretation)。
⚑ 第七,氧化铝的新空是否继续加仓,以及成本反馈项能否取得日期。 周一已印出 AO2701 2,673,低于全部六条均线 64.15–108.45,持仓仍在增加。判别带沿用:持仓继续上升且价格继续下跌,则空头趋势成立,成本支撑一项应完全移出多头清单;持仓下降而价格反弹,则周五属空头挤压前的最后一段;AO2610 若重新收于 2,718 之上需连续两日方可回撤成本口径一的降级。本期新增观察项:「厂平均利润约 100 元/吨、部分亏损、北方减产」能否取得一个有日期的来源与一个减产吨位——没有吨位,它只是一句话;有了吨位,它是本页唯一可能终止氧化铝跌势的机制。

免责声明

本简报仅供内部晨会参考。数据来源包括上海期货交易所公开日度与夜盘数据及其第三方镜像、Westmetall、TradingEconomics、CME FedWatch、美国劳工统计局、路透、CNBC、CNN、半岛电视台、Arab News、Semafor、阿曼官方媒体(经转述)、伊朗 IRIB(经转述)、UKMTO(经转述)、CNAL 世铝网、AL Circle、Mysteel、SMM(上海有色网)、metalcharts 第三方镜像、中国海关总署(经转述)、Fastmarkets / Mining.com / Hellenic Shipping News / Borderlex(欧盟废料条目)、CERA、Wood Mackenzie、CRU、ING、摩根大通、EY-Parthenon 以及公开报道的高盛观点。标注「⚑ / ⊘」者为事实数据;标注「(interpretation)」或「(derivation)」者为本简报的判断或计算,二者在全文中明确区分。来源冲突时,所有口径平行列示且不予调和,除非一手来源证伪其中之一(本期未调和项包括:沙特东西管道的 500 万桶/日与 700 万桶/日两个口径;会址「马斯喀特」与「塞拉莱」;美元指数 99.132 与 99.185;铝型材开工率 51.1%、57.6% 与产能利用率 37.05% 三个口径;ADC12 六个口径;国内运行产能 4,378 万吨与「4,500 万吨上限 + 98.4% 开工率」)。依赖假设系数的推导(如 1.93 吨氧化铝/吨铝)先声明假设再计算。本期作出三项自我更正并予以明确记录:其一,沿用三周的「龙头下游开工率 59.9%(8月13日)」与「再生铝 49.1%」被有日期的 9月3日 61.0% 与 51.6% 取代——本简报在自己的空方论据里使用了一个陈旧数字,而更好的数字一直存在,两项退役、错误归属本简报;其二,沿用的「欧盟计划对非 OECD 国家禁止废铝出口」条目被更正为「出口关税已取消、替代措施最早 2027年5月生效」,该条目移出偏多清单;其三,主力配对利润代理的表述被更正为「上界」而非「估计值」,因其不含能源项,而本期能源项显著上行。此外,事先写下的霍尔木兹检验按原文判为「双向、不作净定性」:外交支腿(磋商推迟)触发,价格支腿(Brent 站上 108)以 **0.38 美元之差落空——本简报按原文执行而不因方向便利而改写阈值。上期所铝仓单 212,073 吨来自第三方镜像而非一手周度仓单,已如实标注。本简报不构成投资建议,亦不对据此作出的任何决策承担责任。**

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time, what is new this edition, and what is not retrievable

Written the morning of Monday, September 14 at approximately 08:55 Beijing time — MINUTES BEFORE the SHFE day session opens at 09:00. No Monday day-session print exists at the time of writing.
⚑⚑ WHAT IS NEW THIS EDITION IS SUBSTANTIAL AND IT IS MOSTLY NOT SHANGHAI: the RESOLUTION of the pre-written Hormuz test (the Iran-GCC meeting is POSTPONED, Oman state media, September 13; Saudi amendments, Bahrain’s refusal, no confirmed regional participation) against a Brent price of USD 107.62 that stopped 0.38 short of this brief’s own 108 threshold; a vessel struck near Qeshm Island on September 13, one killed and four injured; the first hard Hormuz transit caliber on this ledger (130-140 vessels/day pre-war against approximately 5-7 now); the Houthi seizure of Perim Island in Bab al-Mandab, a SECOND chokepoint; the RECOVERY of SMM’s downstream operating-rate survey DATED SEPTEMBER 3 with a seven-segment breakdown and seven of seven segments up, which SUPERSEDES the 59.9% at August 13 this brief has been carrying for three weeks; the recovery of an SHFE aluminium warrant mirror (212,073 mt, September 11); a dated September 12 FedWatch reading of 85.5%; a Monday DXY print; the CORRECTION of the carried EU scrap item from ‘planned ban’ to ‘export duty CANCELLED, non-OECD waste ban deferred to MAY 2027’; and a FIFTH price forecast (CRU, April 8) that widens the forecast spread to 50.40% of spot.
⊘ NOT RETRIEVABLE: any Monday SHFE day-session print (the session has not opened); any new Westmetall row — September 11 remains the last, re-queried and confirmed for a SECOND consecutive edition; SMM’s own primary quotations for a FOURTEENTH consecutive edition; SMM three-region daily inventory for an EIGHTH; Monday’s SMM national ingot print (published later in the day); the SHFE weekly warrant PRIMARY caliber (only the mirror is recovered); the October fed funds strip for a SEVENTEENTH; LME volume and open interest.

⚑⚑ Shanghai has no new price: Monday’s trading day is still 38.3% traded at 24,000

⚑⚑ The SHFE September 14 trading day began at 21:00 on FRIDAY. Already printed, not forecast: open 24,100 / high 24,100 / low 23,920 / last 24,000; AL2610 volume 81,993, open interest 198,952 (−12,438).
⚑⚑ 81,993 lots is 38.3% of Friday’s ENTIRE trading-day volume of 213,873. The day session that begins minutes from now continues this session; it does not start it (derivation).
⊘⊘ The six SHFE averages, carried exact off the 224-row series at the September 11 close: MA5 24,433.00 / MA10 24,311.00 / MA20 24,055.00 / MA30 24,029.83 / MA40 23,847.25 / MA60 23,601.25.
⊘⊘ Against 24,000: below MA5 by 433.00, MA10 by 311.00, MA20 by 55.00, MA30 by 29.83; above MA40 by 152.75 and MA60 by 398.75. FOUR OF SIX LOST.
⊘⊘ Against the 23,920 low already printed — exactly the August 28 close — below MA20 by 135.00, MA30 by 109.83, and above MA40 by only 72.75.
⊘ The pre-written no-conclusion band remains LIVE: floor 23,920, ceiling 24,055.00, width 135.00, with 24,000 at 59.3% of it. No qualification is made (derivation).

⚑⊘ The two open-interest calibers still contradict each other, and the session opening now decides

⊘⊘ The September 11 DAY was EXIT: complex open interest −29,349 to 593,718, 1.96x this brief’s own void threshold; over three sessions exit outweighs roll 34,381 to 12,624; on the heaviest volume on this ledger (complex 414,471, +55.4%).
⚑ The September 11 NIGHT — the first portion of Monday’s trading day — was a ROLL: six contracts −1,612 in total, AL2610’s −12,438 absorbed by AL2611 +5,421, AL2612 +3,601, AL2701 +1,851, AL2702 +258; and AL2611 overtook AL2610 on open interest, 213,268 to 198,952.
⊘ The two readings are opposite and remain UNRECONCILED (interpretation).

⚑ London: carried, and the carry was verified by re-query for a SECOND consecutive edition

⚑ Westmetall was re-queried this morning and September 11 remains the last published row (London was closed Saturday and Sunday; a Monday row cannot exist before the London close).
⊘ Cash settled USD 3,274.00 (−69.00, −2.06%), the largest one-day cash fall on this ledger; 3-month USD 3,250.00 (−68.00); backwardation +USD 24.00, a first narrowing in five and by only USD 1.00; stocks 244,100 mt (−250), below the −500 substance threshold and classified as noise.
⚑ The six LME averages carried exact for a SIXTH consecutive edition: MA5 3,320.80 / MA10 3,293.80 / MA20 3,256.05 / MA30 3,263.48 / MA40 3,244.04 / MA60 3,217.94.
⊘ Cash has LOST MA5 (by 46.80) and MA10 (by 19.80); it holds MA20 by only 17.95, MA30 by only 10.52, MA40 by 29.96 and MA60 by 56.06 — the narrowest support margin of this run. The non-monotone stack persists: MA30 sits USD 7.43 ABOVE MA20.
⚑ Parallel caliber, re-queried and unchanged: TradingEconomics reads USD 3,256.65 at September 11, −0.70% d/d, −1.52% m/m, +20.62% y/y — a USD 17.35 gap to the Westmetall cash settlement and USD 6.65 to the 3-month, consistent with a different contract reference rather than a data conflict.
⚑ NEW — a Shanghai warehouse mirror: SHFE aluminium warehouse inventory 212,073 mt (September 11), from a third-party mirror rather than the SHFE weekly warrant primary caliber. With London’s 244,100 mt, visible exchange stocks total 456,173 mt, Shanghai at 86.88% of London (derivation).

⊘ Spot is carried at Friday, and is explicitly stale against the price Monday has printed

⚑ SMM mirror caliber (September 11): A00 24,240 (−320); A00 Foshan 24,430 (−350); ADC12 24,300 (−150).
⚑ CNAL five-caliber set (September 11): Shanghai 24,230 (−310); Changjiang 24,240 (−320); Zhongyuan 24,240 (−320); Nanhai/Foshan 24,710 (−340); Guangdong Nanchu 24,440 (−360).
⊘ Every regional premium narrowed: Nanhai − Shanghai 480 (from 530); Nanchu − Shanghai 210 (from 260); Changjiang − Shanghai +10, unchanged. South China fell 340-360 against East China’s 310-320.
⚑ Basis: +5 against the September 11 close, +50 against settlement.
⊘⊘ But against the 24,000 Monday has already printed the basis is +240. That is not evidence of tightness — it is a stale quotation awaiting reprice. This brief records the basis as UNKNOWN until SMM publishes, not as +5 (interpretation).
⊘ SMM’s own primary quotations, regional transaction premia, shipment and purchasing sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings remain login-walled for a FOURTEENTH consecutive edition, so no sentiment index is published and no proxy is substituted.
⊘ LME cash USD 3,274.00. ADC12 mirror 24,300, with the six-caliber spread carried and still unreconciled: Nanhai/Dali trade 24,650-24,850 (undated); SMM 23,950; Changjiang spot alloy 24,000; Changjiang composite East China 23,615; Foshan mainstream 23,500-23,800. A356.2 24,400 carried; AD2610 23,545 carried, with no AD contract data since September 10.

⊘⊘ Alumina: carried at the worst print on this ledger — but with a cost-side feedback item for the first time

⊘⊘ AO2701, September 11 day: open 2,762 / high 2,792 / low 2,691 / close 2,697 / settlement 2,731; −39 (−1.41%) on settlement, −61 (−2.21%) close-to-close. Volume 275,018 (+69.0%), open interest 220,066 (+24,675, +12.63%); complex open interest 462,497 (+20,900).
⊘⊘ AO2701 in the Friday night session — already part of Monday’s trading day: 2,673 (−58, −2.12%), volume 92,893, open interest 235,026 (a FURTHER +14,960). AO2610 2,651 (−44) / AO2611 2,659 (−45) / AO2612 2,672 (−39) / AO2702 2,690 (−55). Five of five down, with position still building.
⚑⚑ The six AO2701 averages, carried exact off the 160-row series: MA5 2,757.00 / MA10 2,753.10 / MA20 2,737.15 / MA30 2,738.67 / MA40 2,749.22 / MA60 2,781.45.
⊘⊘ 2,673 is below ALL SIX by 84.00 / 80.10 / 64.15 / 65.67 / 76.22 / 108.45 — wider on every single average than the 60.00 / 56.10 / 40.15 / 41.67 / 52.22 / 84.45 recorded at the September 11 close (derivation).
⊘⊘ Cost caliber one (2,718) has failed twice: AO2610 closed 2,667 with the clearance chain +39 → +19 → +2 → −3 → −51, and the Monday-session 2,651 is 67 BELOW the line. Cost caliber two (2,826.21) is unpriced across the entire curve out to August 2027; the highest close is AO2708 at 2,815, still 11.21 below.
⊘ Front-to-tail contango +148 (5.55% of the front), a third consecutive narrowing from +175 and +184.
⚑⊘ NEW — the first cost-side feedback item on this ledger: Chinese alumina refinery average profit has narrowed to approximately RMB 100/mt, some refineries are at a loss, and several northern refineries have implemented production cuts (undated). At the 2,673 Monday-session price, RMB 100 is a 3.74% margin (derivation). This is the first mechanism by which the alumina collapse could stop itself; it is undated, so it is listed and NOT weighted.
⊘ Undated regional spot calibers: Guangxi 2,710 (−20) and Shanxi 2,720 (−15), alongside the previously carried 2,707 — all three sit ABOVE the AO2701 close of 2,697, so the board trades at a discount to its own physical reference on every caliber.

⊘⊘ Margin proxy: this edition states plainly that it now OVERSTATES margin

⊘ Main pair (AL2610/AO2701, at the stated 1.93 t/t assumption): 24,000 − 1.93 × 2,673 = 18,841.11 against 19,029.79 at the September 11 close, a further −188.68 (derivation). Matched pair (AL2610/AO2610): 24,000 − 1.93 × 2,651 = 18,883.57.
⊘⊘ And the proxy contains NO energy term. With Brent +2.88% on Monday morning and the Saudi East-West pipeline shut, 18,841.11 is an UPPER BOUND on smelter margin, not an estimate of it: the alumina leg handed smelters 188.68 per tonne back in the night while the power leg took away an amount this brief cannot quantify (interpretation).

3 · Inventory

⊘ Carried whole, with one gap partly closed and the regional gap in its eighth edition

⊘ SMM national ingot social inventory carried at 796,000 mt (September 10); SMM publishes Monday and Thursday, and Monday’s print is not out at the time of writing.
FULL CHAIN: Aug 24 860,000 → Aug 27 852,000 → Aug 31 837,000 → Sept 3 815,000 → Sept 7 802,000 → Sept 10 796,000.
⊘ Carried ruling, UNCHANGED: Thursday-to-Thursday −19,000, which is 52.8% of the prior 36,000 two-observation pace and 79.4% of August’s own approximately 23,935; Monday-to-Thursday only −6,000. THE DESTOCK HALVED, IT DID NOT STOP. Cumulative from the early-July peak near 1.13 million mt: −334,000 mt (−29.6%).
⚑ Mysteel national caliber, carried: Aug 31 809,000 → Sept 3 789,000 → Sept 7 774,000 → Sept 10 768,000; SMM minus Mysteel across four dates reads 28,000 / 26,000 / 28,000 / 28,000 and the constant definitional offset conclusion holds.
⚑ Mysteel’s own analysis caliber, carried: cumulative destocking since July approximately 278,000 mt to around 850,000 mt at late August, with the July weekly average drawdown at 54,800 mt, the highest for that period in three years.
⊘ SMM three-region daily inventory unavailable for an EIGHTH consecutive edition, carried at September 3: 641,000 mt (Guangdong 143,000, Wuxi 300,000, Gongyi 198,000), destock −10,500.
⚑ Partly closed this edition: an SHFE aluminium warehouse mirror at 212,073 mt (September 11). The weekly warrant primary caliber remains unavailable, and the carried third-party ‘approximately −3% week-on-week’ is consistent in sign but is NOT arithmetically reconciled with the mirror level.
⚑ LME 244,100 mt (September 11, −250), verified unchanged this edition.
⊘⊘ What inventory is doing to price (interpretation): the destock continues at half pace, so the support holds but its force has fallen; London is now nearly static (approximately 166 mt per interval since August 18 against approximately 1,582 before); and without the three-region breakdown, Monday’s national print can say whether the deceleration continued and not where it happened. The recovered September 3 downstream survey — seven of seven segments up — argues at the margin for an arrival cluster rather than a demand stall.

4 · Macro Factors

⊘⊘ Energy is the whole of this edition, and it moved before the SHFE open

⊘⊘ Brent USD 107.62, +3.01 (+2.88%) against Friday’s 104.61 settlement; +18.43% m/m, +59.58% y/y. 7.62% ABOVE the USD 100 line this brief tracks and 0.38 (0.35%) BELOW the USD 108 threshold it wrote down.
⊘⊘ WTI USD 102.83, +2.78 (+2.78%); +21.69% m/m, +62.45% y/y.
⊘⊘ The cause is named. The Iran-GCC Hormuz talks are POSTPONED (Oman state media, September 13): a joint Tehran-Muscat decision taken at the request of some regional countries, ‘in order to create conditions conducive to a constructive dialogue’. SAUDI ARABIA submitted amendments, concerned the proposed language would effectively establish a new status quo unacceptable to it and the other GCC states. BAHRAIN had already refused to attend. NO regional country had confirmed participation. Venue calibers differ (Muscat in the pre-announcement, Salalah in the postponement report) and are NOT reconciled.
⊘ Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pipeline remains SHUT after drone strikes launched from Iraqi territory on September 10-11; 1,200 km to Yanbu on the Red Sea. TWO CALIBERS, LISTED AND NOT RECONCILED: approximately 5 million bpd of rerouted Gulf volume, and a 7 million bpd capacity figure; Reuters frames the outage as threatening 4% of global oil supply.
⊘ A vessel was struck by an unknown projectile near QESHM ISLAND on September 13 while transiting the strait, sparking a fire and forcing a crew evacuation; IRIB puts casualties at ONE KILLED and FOUR INJURED. The sequence matters more than the tonnage: the strike landed the day before the transit talks, and the talks were then postponed.
⊘ Hormuz transit caliber, NEW on this ledger: 130-140 vessels per day before the war against approximately 5-7 now, roughly −95% since February; on midpoints 6 against 135 is −95.56% (derivation). This is the mechanical reason the Gulf smelter outages have not reversed, and will not reverse on a communiqué.
⊘ The Houthis have SEIZED PERIM ISLAND in Bab al-Mandab — a SECOND chokepoint. Carried: Houthi strikes on Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran, 73-plus wounded.
⚑ One offsetting demand caliber, listed: the IEA is reported forecasting a 2.5 million barrel contraction in 2026 demand.
⊘ Rates: a DATED SEPTEMBER 12 CME FedWatch reading of 85.5% for a 25 bp hike on September 16, against the dated September 11 reading of 85.6% — a change of −0.1 point, so THE REPRICING STOPPED. Chain: 48.4% (Aug 11) → approximately 66% (Aug 31) → approximately 69.3% (pre-CPI) → 85.6% (post-CPI) → 85.5% (Sept 12). The pre-written 95% escalation threshold is 9.5 POINTS AWAY. Target range carried at 3.50-3.75% after five consecutive holds through July 28-29.
⊘ US August CPI: headline +0.4% m/m and +3.4% y/y; core +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y; gasoline +3.9%. EY-Parthenon switched from HOLD to a 25 bp HIKE to 3.75-4.00%.
⊘ Treasuries: 10-year approximately 4.97-4.98%, the highest since OCTOBER 2023; 30-year 5.36%; 2-year approximately 4.58%.
⚑ Dollar: DXY 99.132 on MONDAY SEPTEMBER 14, +0.010 (+0.01%); month −0.45%, year +1.94%. A parallel quote on the same source reads 99.185, +0.0628 (+0.06%) — both listed, neither preferred. Against the carried September 11 reading of 99.095, the move is +0.037 on the lower caliber.
⚑ The one genuinely constructive macro judgement on this page (interpretation): an 85.5% hike probability with the dollar flat and below 99.5 means the dollar channel has not transmitted; the macro pressure is partly insulated, and the leading channel remains the yen and the Bank of Japan.
⊘ China, carried and dated: July industrial production +4.5% y/y against a +4.8% consensus; July retail sales +0.6% against a +1.5% consensus and June’s +1.0%; fixed asset investment −6.7% year-to-date at end-July against a −6.0% consensus. AUGUST ACTIVITY DATA LANDS TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 15, with retail sales expected approximately +0.6% (unchanged) and fixed asset investment expected to deepen toward approximately −7%.
⚑ China’s export line (September 8): 626,000 mt of unwrought aluminium and products in August, +17.2% y/y against 534,000 mt, but −2.6% m/m against July’s 643,000; January-August 4.67 million mt, +16.7% y/y, so August ran 7.24% ABOVE the eight-month average of 583,750 mt/month.
⊘⊘ Macro net (interpretation): energy is clearly bearish in the double sense that it raises the smelting cost floor and makes September 16 harder to turn dovish; rates and the dollar are NEUTRAL this edition (the repricing stopped, the dollar is flat); China’s demand side is bearish before the print (retail sales expected unchanged, fixed asset investment expected to deepen); and the export line is the only clearly bullish Chinese caliber, but its month-on-month has already turned negative.

5 · Fundamentals

⚑⚑ The best news on this page is a date: SMM’s downstream survey is recovered at September 3, seven of seven up

⚑⚑ SMM leading-processor operating rates (September 3, week-on-week): overall 61.0% (+0.8 pp); aluminium foil 71.1% (+0.4); plate, sheet and strip 69.4% (+0.2); wire and cable 64.0% (+1.0); primary aluminium alloy 59.0% (+1.2); secondary aluminium 51.6% (+1.4, the largest in the set); extrusion 51.1% (+0.5). SEVEN OF SEVEN UP.
⚑ SMM’s own framing: entering the traditional September peak season, earlier disruptions were gradually cleared and operating rates across all segments saw restorative growth, with energy-storage demand a driver across multiple segments and secondary aluminium posting the largest gain.
⚑ Arithmetic check: the six sub-segment changes average +0.783 pp against the headline +0.8 pp — internally consistent (derivation).
⊘⊘ And this print convicts this brief of an error of its own. This brief has carried ‘leading downstream processors’ operating rate 59.9% at August 13’ as a demand-weakness item for three weeks while a better, dated number existed. The correct figure is 61.0% at September 3, +1.1 pp across those three weeks; the carried secondary rate of 49.1% is superseded by 51.6%, +2.5 pp. Both carried figures are RETIRED and the error is recorded as this brief’s own (derivation).
⊘ But the extrusion line now has THREE calibers and they are not reconciled: SMM’s dated 51.1% (+0.5 pp, September 3); a separate undated survey at 57.6% (+0.2 pp), a 6.5 pp gap and 12.72% higher in relative terms; and this brief’s carried ‘extrusion CAPACITY UTILISATION at a 37.05% cyclical floor’, which is a third measure. All three are listed; this brief will quote the DATED 51.1% going forward.
⚑ Qualitative, undated, listed and not weighted: PV frame enterprises report ample orders sufficient to run at high levels to month-end; new orders in automotive and power rose significantly; the northern construction season and PV frame deliveries drove the extrusion recovery.
⚑ Named substitution item (September 12): Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro Max replaces a titanium frame with an ALUMINIUM UNIBODY at 40% recycled content — immaterial in tonnage, recorded for direction only.

⊘ Overseas supply: carried, with one new dated forecaster added

⊘⊘ NEW — CRU, dated APRIL 8 2026: LME peak prices likely to EXCEED USD 4,000/t, with a Q2 2026 quarterly average of USD 3,800/t, on Middle East curtailments — EGA Al Taweelah up to −1.2 Mt on 2026 production; Alba lines 1-3 at 311 kt/y (19% of capacity); combined EGA plus Alba capacity approximately 4.3 Mt/y; Qatalum at 60% utilisation equal to −390 kt/y; two Arak potlines closed and Bandar Abbas curtailed in Iran; with demand only 0.4 pp lower as a partial offset.
⊘ Carried overseas items: the EGA Al Taweelah REFINERY 50% ramp target (July 10 2026, full capability by end-2026, 2.4 million mt produced in 2025, close to half of EGA’s own requirement) against the Al Taweelah SMELTER pot restart (227 of 1,262 cells at August 11) — two different assets, resolved last edition as this brief’s own caliber error; Alunorte restored to full production; Rio Tinto Yarwun −1.2 million mt/yr from October; Alcoa’s 2026 guidance cut of 200,000-300,000 mt; Alcoa’s acquisition of South32’s aluminium assets (June 30 2026, approximately USD 4.1 billion); Qatalum approximately 60% of nameplate; Alba lines 1-3 down; GCC output −44% y/y in July; Guinea’s approximately 150 million mt/yr export cap target; the Rusal Friguia rail derailment (August 24, approximately 450,000 mt/yr rail-dependent refinery capacity, a 600,000 mt/yr installed caliber also circulating); Canada’s 25%→50% step-up with aluminium rod named; Mexico’s DEFINITIVE anti-dumping duties on extrusions from China AND the United States (September 10); SMM’s overseas review putting 2026-2027 planned new primary capacity at approximately 5.855 million mt.
⚑⚑ CORRECTED THIS EDITION — the EU scrap item was CANCELLED, not delayed. The aluminium scrap export duty that was to be announced on SEPTEMBER 23 has been WITHDRAWN by Executive Vice-President Stéphane Séjourné, partly because internal analysis found it would cover only about half of relevant scrap exports and partly over concern it could complicate the EU-India free trade agreement. In its place: a delegated act under the Waste Shipment Regulation banning non-hazardous waste exports to non-OECD countries, expected to be finalised in NOVEMBER and to take effect in MAY 2027, with possible exceptions for some EU candidate countries and a public consultation before adoption by end-2026. European Aluminium objected publicly.
⊘ So a carried bullish supply item becomes a 2027 item. The near-term instrument is gone; the earliest effect (May 2027) is beyond every price forecast on this page, and European scrap stays exportable through the whole 2026 season. The item is corrected, re-dated, and moved OFF the bullish list (interpretation).
⚑ NEW (September 12): the NALCO-EGA technology licensing partnership was highlighted on an Odisha Chief Minister visit to EGA Jebel Ali — the same operator whose Al Taweelah refinery ramp and smelter pot restart sit on both of this brief’s ledgers.

⊘ Domestic primary supply and alumina cost: carried, with the caliber conflict unresolved

⊘ Carried: Chinese operating capacity approximately 43.78 million mt/yr on an SMM caliber, still NOT reconciled with the 45 million mt ceiling and 98.4% operating-rate pair carried here; Mysteel’s own 89-smelter caliber puts 2025 output at 44.4 million mt (+2.7% y/y) on 97% utilisation (+1.7 pp); Sichuan smelter reductions approximately 205,000 mt/yr (undated).
⊘ Alumina cost and supply, carried: September prebaked anode 5,730 yuan/mt spot and 5,745 on acceptance; September aluminium fluoride tenders RMB 11,500-12,000/mt; national alumina weekly operating rate 84.04% (−0.8 pp, undated); SMM FOB Western Australia alumina USD 425/mt (−USD 47 w/w, undated); Chalco H1 metallurgical alumina output 7.38 million mt (−14.19% y/y); CERA’s 1.79 million mt 2026 alumina SURPLUS; China’s January-June alumina imports 2.277 million mt (+749.1% y/y); approximately 8.6 million mt of planned new domestic alumina capacity for 2026 against a forecast full-year oversupply above 10 million mt on one caliber; a 2.4 million mt/yr alumina refinery at Fangchenggang, Guangxi; AL Circle’s 2026 smelter-grade alumina demand of approximately 145.2 million mt against a broader market near 147 million mt.
⚑⊘ And this edition’s cost-side feedback item points the other way: refinery average profit approximately RMB 100/mt (3.74%), some at a loss, northern cuts. This is the first self-limiting mechanism to appear inside the oversupply narrative; being undated, it is listed and not weighted (interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⊘ This edition can publish no new spot transaction or sentiment data, and says why

⊘ East China, Central China and South China spot transactions and premia are carried at September 11 (see section 2); Monday’s spot quotations are not published at the time of writing.
⊘ Shipment and purchasing sentiment indices remain login-walled for a FOURTEENTH consecutive edition; this brief publishes neither and substitutes no proxy.
⚑ What can be stated on regional structure (September 11): every one of the five regional premia narrowed, with South China leading the fall (−340 to −360) against East China (−310 to −320); Nanhai − Shanghai 480 (from 530), Nanchu − Shanghai 210 (from 260), Changjiang − Shanghai +10 (unchanged).
⊘⊘ On the ‘spot followed rather than led’ judgement, this edition MAINTAINS last edition’s downgrade. The +5 basis it rested on was measured against a close that is no longer the live price; against the 24,000 Monday has printed the basis is +240. Until SMM publishes, this brief makes no qualification about spot strength (interpretation).
⚑ The only directional substitute available is on the demand side, not the quotation side: seven of seven downstream segments up at September 3, with secondary +1.4, primary alloy +1.2 and wire and cable +1.0. If Monday’s quotations follow the board down only modestly, that print is the citable reason; if the basis collapses straight into negative territory, that print is overruled. This brief writes it as a test, not as a conclusion (interpretation).

7 · Key Price Drivers

⚑ Bullish factors (18)

⚑⚑ Seven of seven SMM downstream segments up at September 3, overall 61.0% (+0.8 pp) — the only dated, improving demand data on this page.
⚑⚑ Secondary aluminium 51.6% (+1.4) supersedes the carried 49.1%; primary aluminium alloy 59.0% (+1.2); wire and cable 64.0% (+1.0).
⚑⚑ Hormuz transit remains down approximately 95%, so the Gulf curtailments cannot reverse on a communiqué; the postponement itself is bullish supply.
⚑⚑ The Saudi East-West pipeline is shut and Perim Island is seized — two chokepoints constrained at once, pushing the Gulf’s return further out.
⚑ Brent USD 107.62, +18.43% m/m — raises the global smelting cost floor (bullish on the cost leg; the macro leg is counted separately below).
⚑ CRU (April 8): peak above USD 4,000 and a Q2 2026 average of USD 3,800 — the highest forecast on this page.
⚑ J.P. Morgan (August 21): Q3 3,800, Q4 3,700, FY2026 average 3,587 (+9.56% on cash), on Middle East shutdowns removing over 6% of global supply, Hormuz disruption and a 1.7 million mt deficit under the 45 million mt cap.
⚑ LME stocks near static and near 36-year lows: approximately 166 mt per interval since August 18 against approximately 1,582 before.
⚑ Backwardation still +USD 24.00, and it narrowed by only USD 1.00 on a USD 69 fall in cash — the prompt physical structure did not concede with the price.
⚑ Domestic destocking continues: 796,000 mt at September 10, −334,000 mt (−29.6%) from the early-July peak.
⚑ Mysteel’s July weekly average drawdown of 54,800 mt was the highest for that period in three years, and its own conclusion is that the destock persists.
⚑ Alumina refinery average profit approximately RMB 100/mt, some at a loss, northern cuts — the first self-limiting mechanism inside the oversupply narrative.
⚑ All three alumina spot calibers (2,707 / 2,710 / 2,720) sit above the AO2701 close of 2,697, so the board discounts its own physical reference.
⚑ China’s August exports 626,000 mt, +17.2% y/y, running 7.24% above the eight-month average.
⚑ The FedWatch repricing stopped (85.5% against 85.6%), and the 95% threshold is 9.5 points away.
⚑ The dollar is flat at 99.132 and below 99.5 — the dollar channel has not transmitted.
⚑ The Friday night session was a ROLL, not an exit (six contracts −1,612 in total), and 24,075 held to the tick in the September 11 day session.
⚑ Named demand substitution: the iPhone 18 Pro Max aluminium unibody (40% recycled); the NALCO-EGA technology licensing partnership.

⊘ Bearish factors (30)

⊘⊘ Monday’s trading day opened BELOW MA20 and is already 38.3% traded: 24,000 is 55.00 below MA20 and 29.83 below MA30, with four of six averages lost.
⊘⊘ The 23,920 low has brought the last average standing (MA40 23,847.25) to within 72.75 points.
⊘⊘ Brent +2.88% to 107.62 and WTI +2.78% to 102.83 — making September 16 harder to turn dovish on the inflation side.
⊘⊘ The Hormuz talks are postponed with no regional country having confirmed participation, so the geopolitical premium cannot fade in the near term (bearish on the macro leg).
⊘ Saudi amendments and Bahrain’s refusal put the disagreement INSIDE the GCC, not only between the GCC and Iran; a reconvening date is not forecastable.
⊘ A vessel was struck near Qeshm Island on September 13 (one dead, four injured) — risk events are still occurring, not converging.
⊘⊘ Alumina AO2701 at 2,673 is below all six averages by 64.15-108.45, and wider on every average than at the close.
⊘⊘ Alumina open interest is still building: a further +14,960 in the night to 235,026 on top of the day’s +24,675 — new shorts, not long liquidation.
⊘⊘ Cost caliber one (2,718) has failed twice and AO2610’s Monday 2,651 is 67 below it; cost caliber two (2,826.21) is unpriced across the whole curve.
⊘ Front-to-tail contango narrowed a third consecutive time to +148, pricing the surplus forward.
⊘⊘ The main-pair margin proxy of 18,841.11 is now an UPPER BOUND, not an estimate: alumina returned 188.68 while power took an unquantifiable amount.
⊘⊘ The EU scrap export duty was CANCELLED, not delayed, and the replacement takes effect no earlier than May 2027 — a carried bullish item leaves the list.
⊘ Both of the two highest forecasts are PAST-PEAK paths (CRU names Q2 2026, J.P. Morgan names Q3 2026), while September cash settled at 3,274.00.
⊘ The five-forecast spread widens to USD 1,650 = 50.40% of spot (Goldman’s undated 2,350 against CRU’s 4,000); the dispersion is itself the finding.
⊘ The four 2026 balance calibers spread 12.14x (AL Circle approximately 140,000 mt; ING approximately 200,000; Wood Mackenzie approximately 900,000; J.P. Morgan 1.7 million).
⊘ The ING item is dated December 8, 2025 and is nine months stale; its USD 2,900 2026 average is 11.42% BELOW where cash settled on September 11.
⊘ The domestic destock has HALVED: Thursday-to-Thursday −19,000, 52.8% of the prior pace; Monday-to-Thursday only −6,000.
⊘ SMM three-region daily inventory is missing for an EIGHTH edition, so ‘where the deceleration happened’ still cannot be answered.
⊘ LME cash has lost MA5 and MA10 and holds MA20 by only 17.95 and MA30 by only 10.52 — the narrowest margin of this run; the non-monotone stack (MA30 USD 7.43 above MA20) persists.
⊘ The September 11 cash fall of USD 69.00 (−2.06%) is the largest one-day fall on this ledger.
⊘ September 11 day-session complex open interest −29,349, 1.96x this brief’s void threshold; over three sessions exit 34,381 against roll 12,624.
⊘ AL2611 has overtaken AL2610 on open interest (213,268 to 198,952), so the main-contract caliber may switch this edition.
⊘ All five regional premia narrowed with South China leading; and the basis against Monday’s 24,000 is +240, i.e. a stale quotation.
⊘ Tuesday’s China August retail sales are expected at approximately +0.6% (unchanged from July), and July itself missed a +1.5% consensus; fixed asset investment is expected to deepen from −6.7% toward approximately −7%.
⊘ China’s August aluminium product exports fell 2.6% month-on-month (626,000 against July’s 643,000).
⊘ US August core CPI +0.3% m/m (from +0.2%) and headline +3.4% y/y; EY-Parthenon switched to a 25 bp hike call.
⊘ The US 10-year at approximately 4.97-4.98% is the highest since October 2023; the 30-year is 5.36%.
⊘ The extrusion caliber disagreement is itself a risk: the dated 51.1% against an undated 57.6% is a 6.5 pp gap, and the carried capacity utilisation of 37.05% remains at a cyclical floor.
⊘ SMM’s own quotations and sentiment indices are missing for a FOURTEENTH edition; the SHFE weekly warrant primary caliber is still missing (only the mirror is recovered); the October fed funds strip is missing for a SEVENTEENTH.
⊘ Carried: CERA’s 1.79 million mt alumina surplus, approximately 8.6 million mt of planned new domestic capacity, imports +749.1% y/y, Alunorte back to full rate and the Fangchenggang 2.4 million mt line — not one item left the alumina oversupply list this edition.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Written minutes before the 09:00 open with no new Shanghai price in existence, the one pre-written test that landed overnight resolved into its own no-net-ruling branch by thirty-eight cents — the Hormuz talks did not go badly, they did not happen (Oman state media, September 13: a joint Tehran-Muscat postponement at the request of regional states, with Saudi Arabia filing amendments against language it read as establishing a new status quo, Bahrain refusing to attend and no regional country confirming participation), so the diplomatic leg triggered; and Brent is USD 107.62 (+3.01, +2.88%), 0.38 — 0.35% — short of the 108 this brief wrote down, so the price leg missed, and the pre-written answer is therefore two-sided with no net qualification, with the thirty-eight cents recorded rather than rounded away; around that the energy column got worse in every direction that matters to a smelter — WTI 102.83 (+2.78%), Brent +18.43% on the month and +59.58% on the year and now 7.62% above the hundred-dollar line, a vessel struck near Qeshm Island on September 13 with one dead and four injured, the Saudi East-West pipeline still shut (two unreconciled calibers of approximately 5 million bpd rerouted against 7 million bpd of capacity, framed by Reuters as threatening 4% of global oil supply), the Houthi seizure of Perim Island constraining a second chokepoint, and Hormuz transit finally quantified at 130-140 vessels a day before the war against approximately 5-7 now, −95%, which is the mechanical reason the Gulf curtailments have not reversed and will not reverse on a communiqué; against that, the best item on this page is a date and it costs this brief an admission — SMM’s downstream survey is recovered dated September 3 with seven of seven segments up (overall 61.0% (+0.8), foil 71.1, plate/sheet/strip 69.4, wire and cable 64.0 (+1.0), primary alloy 59.0 (+1.2), secondary 51.6 (+1.4, the largest), extrusion 51.1 (+0.5), the six sub-segment changes averaging +0.783 against the headline +0.8), and it supersedes the 59.9% at August 13 and the 49.1% secondary rate this brief has been carrying on the bearish side of its own argument for three weeks — both retired, the error recorded as this brief’s own; two further corrections follow: the EU scrap export duty was cancelled rather than delayed (the September 23 announcement withdrawn by Séjourné, partly because it covered only about half of relevant exports and partly over the India trade agreement, with the replacement non-OECD ban expected to be finalised in November and to take effect in May 2027, beyond every forecast on this page, European Aluminium objecting), and a fifth forecast joins the ledger — CRU, April 8, peak above USD 4,000 and a Q2 2026 average of 3,800 — widening the spread from USD 1,450 to USD 1,650, or 50.40% of spot, and making a pattern harder to miss: both of the highest forecasts on this page are past-peak calls; on the alumina side a self-limiting mechanism appears for the first time — refinery average profit approximately RMB 100/mt (3.74%), some at a loss, northern cuts — but it is undated, so listed and not weighted, while the board itself remains on the worst print on this ledger, AO2701’s 2,673 below all six averages by 64.15 to 108.45, wider on every one than at the close, with open interest still building, and the 18,841.11 margin proxy an upper bound rather than an estimate because it contains no energy term; Shanghai, meanwhile, added not one number: Monday’s trading day is 38.3% traded at 24,000, four of six averages are lost, 23,920 brought MA40 to within 72.75 points, and the no-conclusion band is still live; on balance, aluminium sits between a demand data set that is better and dated and an energy shock that is worse and live, with the calendar carrying the rest — today’s SMM national ingot number, Tuesday’s China August activity data (retail sales expected unchanged, fixed asset investment expected to deepen toward −7%), Wednesday’s FOMC with a dot plot at 85.5% priced, and the Bank of Japan Thursday and Friday; the honest statement is that the structure is intact only on the closing caliber, that the session deciding it is already more than a third complete below MA20, that the demand column improved on a number this brief should have had three weeks ago, and that the cost floor moved UP on power at the same moment it moved DOWN on alumina (interpretation).

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day Session and Tonight’s Night Session (September 14)

⚑⚑ First, MA20 (24,055.00) and the no-conclusion band — the test is carried verbatim and unchanged. Monday’s trading day has printed open 24,100 / high 24,100 / low 23,920 / last 24,000, on 81,993 lots (38.3% of Friday’s full day). A day-session close above 24,055.00 makes the Friday night break an oversold move; a close below 23,920 escalates it to trend reversal with MA40 23,847.25 as the next reference; a close between 23,920 and 24,055 remains NO CONCLUSION. Ladder: 24,311.00 (MA10) / 24,235 (Sept 11 close) / 24,100 (Monday open and high) / 24,075 (the level that held) / 24,055.00 (MA20) / 24,029.83 (MA30) / 24,000 (Monday last) / 23,920 (Monday low, the Aug 28 close) / 23,847.25 (MA40) / 23,601.25 (MA60).
⚑⚑ Second, the open-interest verdict and the main-contract switch. The September 11 day was exit (complex −29,349, 1.96x the void threshold; exit 34,381 against roll 12,624 over three sessions); the night was a roll (six contracts −1,612). Bands carried: complex open interest down a further 10,000 or more means exit is the trend and the weight on this entire rebound should be cut; a recovery of 5,000 or more means Friday’s day session was a one-off liquidation wave; within ±5,000 is recorded as undecided. Watch whether AL2611’s day-session open interest confirms above AL2610 (already 213,268 to 198,952 on the night) — on confirmation, this brief switches its main-contract caliber and labels the switch.
⚑⚑ Third, today’s SMM national ingot inventory, which carries two weeks of information. Chain 9/7 802,000 → 9/10 796,000, Thursday-to-Thursday −19,000 (52.8% of the prior pace). Bands carried and covering the whole number line: ≤ 785,000 = destocking re-accelerates; 785,001-792,000 = the current decelerated pace holds; 792,001-799,000 = further deceleration; ≥ 799,001 = stall or build. Also watch whether the Mysteel same-day gap stays inside 26,000-28,000 (a departure reopens the ‘constant definitional offset’ conclusion), and whether the three-region breakdown is finally published after eight missing editions.
⚑⚑ Fourth, Brent’s two lines and whether the talks reconvene — the one test this edition leaves half-triggered. Judgement rewritten on this edition’s outcome: Brent taking and holding 108.00 upgrades the cost-floor item while raising the macro constraint, so it remains two-sided with no net qualification; Brent back below 104.61 (Friday’s settlement) makes Monday’s move a one-off reaction to the postponement and does not change the cost-floor conclusion; Brent below 100.00 together with a dated reconvening arrangement downgrades the cost-floor item and is net bearish for aluminium; a reconvening rumour with no verifiable arrangement is recorded as nothing at all. Watch separately whether the Saudi East-West pipeline resumes — a more direct price variable than the meeting.
⚑ Fifth, the pricing into Wednesday’s FOMC and dot plot, with the baseline at 85.5% (September 12). Bands carried against the new baseline: pricing above 95% with DXY above 99.5 means the dollar channel has begun to transmit and is further bearish for aluminium; pricing holding 85-92% with DXY flat near 99 keeps the ‘yen and Bank of Japan are the leading channel’ judgement alive and the macro pressure partly insulated; pricing back below 80% makes this macro shock an overreaction and is bullish. If the October fed funds strip becomes available, retrieve it immediately to restore the term structure.
⚑ Sixth, Tuesday’s China August industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales and house prices. Expected: retail sales approximately +0.6% (unchanged from July), fixed asset investment approximately −7% year-to-date (from −6.7%). Bands carried: retail sales ≥ +1.5% or fixed asset investment better than −6.0% means the ‘peak season did not arrive’ ruling is partly withdrawn and is bullish; retail sales +0.3% to +1.0% with investment in −7.5% to −6.5% is in line and the current rulings stand; retail sales ≤ 0% or investment worse than −8.0% moves the downstream demand item off the bullish list entirely and is clearly bearish. Cross-check added this edition: if the macro set is weak while the dated September 3 seven-of-seven downstream print stands, prefer the firm-level operating rates and attribute the macro weakness to property rather than to aluminium’s own downstream (interpretation).
⚑ Seventh, whether alumina’s new shorts keep adding, and whether the cost-feedback item can be dated. Monday has printed AO2701 at 2,673, below all six averages by 64.15-108.45, with open interest still rising. Bands carried: open interest rising while price falls establishes the short trend and moves the cost-support item off the bullish list entirely; open interest falling while price rebounds makes Friday the last leg before a squeeze; AO2610 must close above 2,718 for TWO consecutive days before the cost caliber one downgrade can be withdrawn. New watch item: whether ‘refinery average profit approximately RMB 100/mt, some at a loss, northern cuts’ can acquire a dated source and a curtailed tonnage — without a tonnage it is a sentence; with one it is the only mechanism on this page that could stop the alumina decline.

Disclaimer

This brief is for internal morning-meeting reference only. Sources include SHFE public day and night session data and third-party mirrors thereof, Westmetall, TradingEconomics, CME FedWatch, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, CNBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, Arab News, Semafor, Oman state media (as reported), Iran’s IRIB (as reported), UKMTO (as reported), CNAL, AL Circle, Mysteel, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), a metalcharts third-party mirror, China’s General Administration of Customs (as reported), Fastmarkets / Mining.com / Hellenic Shipping News / Borderlex (the EU scrap item), CERA, Wood Mackenzie, CRU, ING, J.P. Morgan, EY-Parthenon and publicly reported Goldman Sachs views. Items marked ‘⚑ / ⊘’ are factual data; items marked ‘(interpretation)’ or ‘(derivation)’ are this brief’s own judgement or arithmetic, and the two are distinguished throughout. Where sources conflict, all calibers are LISTED IN PARALLEL AND NOT RECONCILED unless a primary source falsifies one of them (unreconciled this edition: the Saudi East-West pipeline’s 5 million bpd and 7 million bpd calibers; the venue calibers Muscat and Salalah; DXY 99.132 and 99.185; the extrusion calibers 51.1%, 57.6% and the 37.05% capacity-utilisation measure; the six ADC12 calibers; domestic operating capacity of 43.78 million mt against the ‘45 million mt cap plus 98.4% operating rate’ pair). Derivations that depend on an assumed coefficient (such as 1.93 t alumina per tonne of aluminium) state the assumption before the arithmetic. THIS EDITION MAKES THREE SELF-CORRECTIONS AND RECORDS THEM EXPLICITLY: first, the three-week-carried ‘leading downstream processors’ operating rate 59.9% (August 13)’ and ‘secondary operating rate 49.1%’ are SUPERSEDED by the dated September 3 figures of 61.0% and 51.6% — this brief was using a stale number on the bearish side of its own argument while a better one existed; both are retired and the error is this brief’s own. Second, the carried ‘EU planned scrap export ban to non-OECD countries’ is CORRECTED to ‘export duty cancelled, replacement effective no earlier than May 2027’, and the item is moved off the bullish list. Third, the main-pair margin proxy is RE-DESCRIBED as an UPPER BOUND rather than an estimate, because it contains no energy term and the energy term rose materially this edition. Separately, the pre-written Hormuz test is RULED VERBATIM as two-sided with no net qualification: the diplomatic leg (talks postponed) triggered and the price leg (Brent taking USD 108) missed by USD 0.38 — the threshold is executed as written and NOT rewritten for directional convenience. The SHFE aluminium warrant figure of 212,073 mt comes from a THIRD-PARTY MIRROR rather than the SHFE weekly warrant primary caliber, and is labelled as such. This brief does not constitute investment advice and accepts no responsibility for any decision taken on the basis of it.