Sep 15, 2026 · Five tests land and only one produces a ruling, so the bands are rewritten. Alumina resolves bearish below all six averages.

一 · 行情表现

前置声明:写稿时点、本期新增内容与不可取得项

本期写于 9月15日(周二)北京时间约 09:05,即上期所日盘 09:00 开盘后数分钟,因此周二日盘尚无任何可用数据。
⚑⚑ 本期首次同时具备两段完整数据:9月14日整个交易日(周五 21:00 夜盘 + 周一日盘)与 9月14日夜盘(属 9月15日交易日的第一段)。
⚑⚑ 本期新增:上期所 9月14日十二个铝合约与十一个氧化铝合约的完整盘面,并经两项完整性检验——(1) 同一收盘序列在 9月11日重算出上期沿用的六条均线,逐位一致;(2) 全系持仓在 9月11日重算得 AL 593,718、AO 462,497,与上期完全一致;Westmetall 9月14日新行(现货 3,311.00 / 三个月 3,257.00 / 库存 243,850),结束连续两期沿用;SMM A00、A00 佛山、ADC12、A356 的 9月14日报价;上期所铝仓单镜像 205,000 吨,与沿用的 212,073 吨精确对平;SMM 三地日度库存 9月9日 627,500 吨(−4,500),部分补齐连续九期的缺口;9月14日两个 FedWatch 口径;9月14日美元指数;美债 10 年、2 年、30 年水平;Brent 的两个互不调和的口径;以及 9月12–14日八条行业条目。
⊘ 无法取得:周二日盘任何数据;SMM 周一全国铝锭社会库存,连续第二个周一(发布时点在本稿之后);SMM 一手报价、区域成交升贴水与出货/采购意愿指数,连续第十五期;上期所周度仓单一手口径(仅有镜像);Mysteel 9月14日全国口径;CNAL 五口径区域报价(写稿时服务器报错),为 9月11日以来首次中断;10月联邦基金利率条,连续第十八期;LME 成交量与持仓量;中国 8月经济数据——今日北京时间 10:00 发布,尚未公布。
⊘⊘ 一条流传中的「8月工业增加值 +6.3%、社零 +10.6%」数据被本简报拒绝采用:其与 7月基数(+4.5% / +0.6%)之差非单月可解释,属其他年份数据。本期不予列示,不参与任何判定(derivation)。

⊘⊘ 五项检验同日落地,只有一项给出定性——而问题出在判别带本身

⊘⊘ 第一项(MA20):9月14日收 24,035,低于自设 24,055.00 线 20.00 点,高于 23,920 线 115.00 点,落在无结论带内,位于带宽 135.00 的 85.19% 处——连续第二期被自己的判别带吞掉。
⊘⊘ 第二项(持仓):全系持仓 −4,490,距自设 ±5,000 边界仅 510 手——判为未决。
⊘⊘ 第三项(Brent):108.34 美元(+3.56%)站上 108.00 线,而事先写下的后果原文即为「双向、不作净定性」——该检验在触发时就注定不产生定性。
⊘⊘ 第四项(FedWatch/美元):92.3% 与 90.7% 两个有日期的口径,分跨自设 92% 边界两侧;美元指数 99.438,距自设 99.5 协同条件仅 0.062。
⚑⚑ 第五项(氧化铝):唯一干净落地的一项,且落在空方(见第五节)。
⊘⊘ 本期据此记录一项方法缺陷:五中有四无定性,不是行情没有信息,是判别带有缺口、有可被两个口径跨越的边界、有可拆分的协同条件。第九节全部判别带整体重写,要求:覆盖完整数轴、无缺口、不设可拆分协同条件(derivation)。

⚑⚑ 上期所 9月14日完整盘面,且六条均线经反算验证

⚑⚑ AL2610(9月14日交易日):开 24,100 / 高 24,100 / 低 23,920 / 收 24,035 / 结算 24,005。收盘对收盘 −200(−0.825%);结算对结算 −185(−0.765%)。成交 159,575 手(较周五 213,873 手 −25.4%);持仓 192,666(−18,724,−8.86%)。
⚑⚑ AL2611:开 24,030 / 高 24,095 / 低 23,920 / 收 24,020 / 结算 24,000;收盘对收盘 −220(−0.908%);成交 110,102;持仓 211,471(+3,624)。
⚑⚑ 全系(AL2609–AL2708 共十二个合约):持仓 589,228(−4,490,−0.76%),成交 322,435(−22.21%)。
⚑⚑ 六条 AL2610 均线,基于 225 行收盘序列、9月14日收盘实时重算:MA5 24,356.00 / MA10 24,307.00 / MA20 24,055.00 / MA30 24,042.83 / MA40 23,872.88 / MA60 23,597.67。
⚑ 完整性检验通过:同一序列在 9月11日重算得 24,433.00 / 24,311.00 / 24,055.00 / 24,029.83 / 23,847.25 / 23,601.25,与上期沿用值逐位一致,序列属已验证而非已声明(derivation)。
⊘⊘ 对照 24,035 收盘:低于 MA5 321.00、MA10 272.00、MA20 20.00、MA30 7.83;高于 MA40 162.12、MA60 437.33。六条失守四条——但 MA20 仅差 20.00、MA30 仅差 7.83,为本台账最窄的两线失守。
⚑⚑ AL2611 自身六条均线(202 行序列):MA5 24,350.00 / MA10 24,298.50 / MA20 24,048.50 / MA30 24,029.67 / MA40 23,856.88 / MA60 23,594.50;对其 24,020 收盘为 −330.00 / −278.50 / −28.50 / −9.67 / +163.12 / +425.50——独立合约上同一形态。

⚑⚑ 周一日盘「一个新高新低都没做出来」

⚑⚑ 9月14日整个交易日的最高 24,100 与最低 23,920,均在周五夜盘、09:00 之前已经印出。
⚑⚑ 日盘自身成交 77,582 手(= 全日 159,575 − 夜盘 81,993),占该交易日的 48.6%,而既未创新高、也未创新低,只把收盘从夜盘的 24,000 推高 35 点至 24,035(derivation)。
⊘ 一个「加了成交量、却在两个方向上都没有扩展区间」的日盘,其含义是无人愿意施压(interpretation)。本简报据此不作方向性定性,并明确说明:是本简报的工具没有说话,不是市场没有说话。

⚑⚑ 9月14日夜盘:四升一跌,唯一下跌的是前合约

⚑⚑ AL2610(夜盘,属 9月15日交易日):开 23,995 / 高 24,055 / 低 23,950 / 最新 23,990,较结算 −15(−0.062%);成交 59,774;持仓 180,208(再 −12,458)。
⚑ AL2611 24,005(+5),持仓 218,533(+7,062);AL2612 24,000(+15);AL2701 23,965(+10);AL2702 23,960(+10)。
⚑ 五个合约中四个上涨,唯一下跌的是前合约——这正是移仓的形态,且是移仓判定的第二项独立证据(derivation)。
⊘ 夜盘最新 23,990 对照实时均线:低于 MA5 366.00、MA10 317.00、MA20 65.00、MA30 52.83;高于 MA40 117.12、MA60 392.33。夜盘最高 24,055 恰好触及 MA20,但未收于其上。
⚑⚑ 曲线翻转:AL2708 23,985 减 AL2610 24,035 = −50,由 9月11日收盘的 +25 contango 翻为 backwardation,单日摆动 75 点。

⚑⚑ 主力合约在持仓上已切换,在成交上尚未切换

⚑⚑ 持仓:AL2611 211,471 对 AL2610 192,666,差 18,805;夜盘进一步扩大至 218,533 对 180,208,差 38,325。
⚑⚑ 成交:AL2610 日盘 159,575 仍领先 AL2611 110,102;夜盘 59,774 对 37,548。
⊘ 仓位已经移动,交易尚未移动。本简报继续以 AL2610 为参照合约,并全量并列 AL2611,直至成交跟上(derivation)。

⚑⚑ 伦敦:新行落地,且是本页的多方一侧

⚑⚑ Westmetall 9月14日:现货结算 3,311.00 美元(+37.00,+1.13%);三个月 3,257.00 美元(+7.00,+0.22%);库存 243,850 吨(−250)。
⚑⚑ Backwardation 由 +24.00 翻倍至 +54.00 美元,为本台账最宽;其中现货端贡献 37.00、三个月端贡献 7.00,84.1% 来自前端买盘而非远端卖盘(derivation)。链条:−0.50 → +2.00 → +6.00 → +14.00 → +25.00 → +24.00 → +54.00。
⚑⚑ 六条 LME 均线,基于 65 行现货序列实时重算至 9月14日:MA5 3,321.00 / MA10 3,302.70 / MA20 3,259.20 / MA30 3,267.32 / MA40 3,247.96 / MA60 3,216.46。
⚑ 完整性检验通过:同一序列在 9月11日重算得 3,320.80 / 3,293.80 / 3,256.05 / 3,263.48 / 3,244.04 / 3,217.94,与上期沿用值逐位一致。
⚑ 对照 3,311.00:仅低于 MA5 10.00;高于 MA10 8.30、MA20 51.80、MA30 43.68、MA40 63.04、MA60 94.54。现货一期之内收复 MA10,六条守住五条——与上海的六守其二恰成镜像。
⊘ 非单调排列连续第七期:MA30 高于 MA20 8.12 美元。
⚑ 库存 243,850 吨创序列新低;−250 低于 9月11日写下的 −500 实质门槛,连续第二行归类为噪音。自 6月1日 337,700 吨累计 −93,850(−27.79%)。平行口径:AL Circle 报 2026 上半年 LME 铝库存 −31.82%。
⚑ 平行价格口径:TradingEconomics 9月14日 3,250.00 美元,日 −0.20%、月 −0.29%、年 +20.21%;与三个月差 7.00 美元、与现货差 61.00 美元,符合三个月参照而非数据冲突。
⚑ 比价:24,035 / 3,311.00 = 7.2591(9月11日为 7.4023);对三个月为 7.3792。伦敦单日跑赢上海 1.955 个百分点。

二 · 铝价及相关市场

⚑ 现货跑赢盘面——这是本场次最干净的一个多方数据

⚑⚑ SMM A00(9月14日):24,080(区间 24,070–24,090),−160。
⚑⚑ 而盘面收盘跌 200、结算跌 185——现货较收盘多跑赢 40、较结算多跑赢 25,且发生在下跌日(derivation)。
⚑ SMM A00 佛山:24,270(区间 24,250–24,290),−160;佛山减上海 = 190,与 9月11日的 190 完全相同——华南升水在连续四期压缩后停止收窄。
⚑ 基差:对 AL2610 收盘 24,035 为 +45;对结算 24,005 为 +75;对 AL2611 收盘 24,020 为 +60。
链条(对收盘):+70(9/4)→ +55(9/7)→ −20(9/8)→ −20/0(9/9)→ +70(9/10)→ +5(9/11)→ +45(9/14)。
⊘ 对夜盘同一条陈旧报价隐含 +90(AL2610)与 +75(AL2611),本简报不将其作为基差发布:现货是周一报价,盘面此后已经交易(interpretation)。
⚑ ADC12 24,200(区间 24,100–24,300),−100。链条:24,450 → 24,300 → 24,200。ADC12 减 A00 = +120(前值 +60)——原铝跌得更快,合金对原铝的贴水连续第二期收窄。
⚑ A356 24,300(区间 24,100–24,500),−200。
⊘ 口径说明:本简报沿用的是 A356.2 24,400;24,400 − 200 = 24,200,不等于 24,300,故 A356 与 A356.2 属不同口径,本期不作调和。
⊘ ADC12 六口径离散沿用未复核:南海/大理成交 24,650–24,850(无日期);SMM 23,950;长江现货合金 24,000;长江华东综合 23,615;佛山主流 23,500–23,800。
⊘ CNAL 五口径区域报价写稿时服务器报错,本期不予发布,为 9月11日以来首次中断。
⊘ SMM 一手报价、区域成交升贴水、出货与采购意愿指数、氧化铝指数与中铝五项挂牌连续第十五期需登录,故本简报不发布任何情绪指标,也不以任何代理替代。
⚑ LME 现货 3,311.00 美元 / 三个月 3,257.00 美元(见第一节)。

⚑⚑ 氧化铝:唯一给出定性的一项,且定在空方

⊘⊘ AO2701(9月14日日盘):开 2,696 / 高 2,697 / 低 2,670 / 收 2,683 / 结算 2,682;收盘对收盘 −14(−0.52%),结算对结算 −49(−1.79%);成交 175,441(−36.2%);持仓 229,264(+9,198,+4.18%)。
⊘⊘ 全系(AO2609–AO2708 共十一个合约):持仓 473,677(+11,180,+2.42%),成交 249,840(−37.07%)。
⚑⚑ 事先写下的原文是:「持仓上升而价格下跌,则空头趋势成立,成本支撑一项应完全移出多头清单」。两条腿在两个口径上全部触发。该项已移出。
⊘⊘ AO2610:开 2,662 / 高 2,673 / 低 2,648 / 收 2,655 / 结算 2,658;收盘 −12;持仓 44,918(−3,238)——前合约在被清空,而 AO2701 在被做空。
⚑⚑ 六条 AO2701 均线(161 行序列,9月14日收盘实时重算):MA5 2,739.00 / MA10 2,748.50 / MA20 2,733.50 / MA30 2,738.23 / MA40 2,745.95 / MA60 2,776.18。
⊘⊘ 2,683 低于全部六条,幅度 56.00 / 65.50 / 50.50 / 55.23 / 62.95 / 93.18——连续第二期收于全部均线之下。
⚑ AO2610 自身六条(225 行序列):MA5 2,698.80 / MA10 2,711.20 / MA20 2,688.75 / MA30 2,689.67 / MA40 2,692.55 / MA60 2,716.67;2,655 同样低于全部六条。
⚑ 夜盘:三期来首次上涨,五个全升。AO2701 2,696(+14,+0.52%),成交 58,818,持仓 229,545(仅 +281);AO2610 2,666(+8);AO2611 2,680(+12);AO2612 2,691(+13);AO2702 2,714(+13)。
⊘ 但反弹没有带上仓位(+281 对下跌时的 +9,198),本简报对此类价格变动不予赋权(interpretation)。2,696 仍低于全部六条均线 37.50 / 52.50 / 43.00 / 42.23 / 49.95 / 80.18。
⊘⊘ 成本口径一(2,718):AO2610 收 2,655,差 63;夜盘 2,666,差 52。事先写下的撤销条件(AO2610 连续两日收于 2,718 之上)未被接近。
⊘⊘ 成本口径二(2,826.21):连续第三期在整条曲线上均未被定价,全曲线最高收盘为 AO2708 2,808,仍低 18.21。
⊘ 曲线:AO2708 2,808 减 AO2610 2,655 = +153 contango,宽于 9月11日的 +148,为连续三次收窄后的首次扩大(+184 → +175 → +148 → +153)。
⚑⊘ 沿用的成本反馈项仍无日期、仍不赋权:中国氧化铝厂平均利润约 100 元/吨,部分亏损,北方多家减产。以 2,683 计,100 元为 3.73% 的利润率。

⊘⊘ 利润代理:压缩延续,且其「上界」属性本期更强

⊘ 主力配对(AL2610/AO2701,1.93 吨/吨):24,035 − 1.93 × 2,683 = 18,856.81,对 9月11日收盘的 19,029.79 再压缩 172.98,三期累计 −545.70。
⚑ 方法验证:上期对周一夜盘的前瞻估计为 18,841.11,实际日盘收盘为 18,856.81,高出 15.70——输入变动而方法成立(derivation)。
⊘ 夜盘配对:23,990 − 1.93 × 2,696 = 18,786.72,再 −70.09——氧化铝夜盘的反弹,比铝夜盘的下跌更贵。
⚑ 同月配对(AL2610/AO2610):24,035 − 1.93 × 2,655 = 18,910.85。
⊘⊘ 而该代理仍不含任何能源项。在 Brent 同日结算 108.34 美元、沙特东西输油管仍关闭且无复产日期的情况下,18,856.81 是利润的上界而非估计值(interpretation)。

三 · 库存

⊘ 周一数字再次缺席,但另外两个缺口补上了

⊘ SMM 全国铝锭社会库存沿用 796,000 吨(9月10日),连续第二个周一缺席。
完整链条:8/24 860,000 → 8/27 852,000 → 8/31 837,000 → 9/3 815,000 → 9/7 802,000 → 9/10 796,000。
⊘ 沿用判定(现已两期未更新):周四对周四 −19,000,为前值 36,000 的 52.8%、8月自身约 23,935 的 79.4%;周一至周四仅 −6,000。去库减半,而非停止。自 7月初约 113 万吨累计 −334,000(−29.6%)。
⚑⚑ 三地缺口在第九期后部分补齐:SMM 三地日度库存 9月9日 627,500 吨(−4,500),对沿用的 9月3日 641,000 吨(−10,500),四个交易日累计 −13,500 吨,日均 −3,375。分地区拆分未取得,故本期补上的是水平而非结构。
⚑⚑ 上期所仓单镜像现已对平:205,000 吨(9月14日),日变动 −7,073;212,073 − 7,073 = 205,000,精确相符,上期提出的「镜像无法对平」标记予以撤销(derivation)。该镜像仍明确不是上期所周度仓单一手口径,后者连续第二期缺失。
⚑⚑ 可见交易所库存合计:205,000 + 243,850 = 448,850 吨(前值 456,173),−7,323(−1.61%),其中上海贡献了 96.6% 的降幅;上海为伦敦的 84.07%(前值 86.88%)。
⚑ LME 243,850 吨(−250),序列新低,变动归类为噪音。
⊘ Mysteel 9月14日全国口径未取得,恒定偏移结论(四个日期 28,000 / 26,000 / 28,000 / 28,000)沿用但未经检验。
⊘ 第三口径,列示且不赋权:「八大主流市场」9月8日 672,000 吨,周环比 −11,000、同比 −73,000,较 SMM 全国口径在相邻日期上低约 130,000 吨。不予调和、不参与任何判定,仅记录以便后续版本为其定源或删除。
⊘⊘ 库存对价格的作用(interpretation):国内水平已两期陈旧,国内判定因此同样陈旧。当前的是交易所库存——两地库存同步下降,而两条曲线同步转为 backwardation,构成一致但狭窄的交割端偏紧信号;它对社会仓库里的 796,000 吨什么也没说。

四 · 宏观因素

⊘⊘ 三条空方通道同日移动,且本简报有一项结论一期即被推翻

⊘⊘ FedWatch(9月16日会议),9月14日两个有日期的口径:92.3% 与 90.7%,均为加息 25 个基点。对照 9月12日 85.5%、9月11日 85.6%。
⊘⊘ 自我更正:上期以两个持平读数写下「重定价已经停止」。它没有停止——一期之内即重启,并移动了 5.2 至 6.8 个百分点。该句予以推翻,并记录为由两点序列推断的错误(derivation)。
⊘ 美元指数 99.438(+0.32%,9月14日),对上期沿用的 99.132;站上 99,距自设 99.5 协同条件仅 0.062。
⊘⊘ 美债:10 年盘中触及 5.014%,为 2023年10月以来最高,最新 4.987%;2 年 4.658%,2024年7月以来最高;30 年仍处本轮高位。
⊘⊘ 一个带 5 字头的 10 年期,出现在带点阵图的 FOMC 会议前四天,是本页最大的贴现率变动(interpretation)。
⊘⊘ Brent,两个口径,不作调和:口径一 108.34 美元(9月14日,+3.56%),站上本简报事先写下的 108.00 线,为本台账最高;口径二 TradingEconomics 106.873 美元(9月15日),日 +1.19(+1.13%)、月 +17.61%、年 +56.09%,隐含前值约 105.68,与 108.34 的结算无法调和。定性取口径一,因为检验是对该口径写下的。
⊘ 成因不变,且现已无复产日期:沙特东西原油管线仍处关闭,伊拉克境内发射的无人机袭击所致,产能口径 700 万桶/日;伊朗—海合会霍尔木兹会议仍处推迟状态。
⊘ 中国 8月工业增加值、固定资产投资、社会消费品零售与 70 城房价,今日北京时间 10:00 发布,尚未公布。沿用 7月基数:工业增加值 +4.5% 同比,社零 +0.6% 同比,固投累计约 −6.7%,当时被描述为全面放缓且不及预期。
⊘⊘ 一条流传中的「8月工业增加值 +6.3%、社零 +10.6%」被拒绝采用,理由见第一节。
⊘⊘ 宏观定性(interpretation):加息概率上行、美元上行、实际贴现率上行——三条独立的空方通道同时指向同一方向。过去三次保护上海的那条反驳——「美元是在日元通道而非美联储通道里移动」——在 99.4 比在 98.7 时弱得多。

五 · 基本面

⚑ 供给、贸易与需求:八条有日期的条目,移动的是关税一条

⚑ 美国铝业 Alcoa(9月14日):仅仅下调加拿大关税并不会让美国中西部升水下来——来自美国最大上市生产商的直接表态,与「关税缓和自动压低区域升水」的假设相抵触。
⚑ Apex Aluminum Extrusions(9月14日):已拒绝将产能迁往美国,其逾 40% 的销售已受关税上调影响——这是需求毁灭而非供给条目。
⚑ 美加关税争端(9月14日):北美汽车零部件供应链承压。
⚑ 俄铝 Rusal(9月14日):印尼加里曼丹铝土矿—氧化铝项目接近最终批准——加到氧化铝过剩清单上,而不是从上面拿走一项;为 9月9日中国资本出海条目之后本台账第二条印尼项。
⚑ Mercuria 与 Glencore(9月14日):正在探讨委内瑞拉 Venalum 电解铝厂的交易,涉及长期闲置产能的潜在重启。
⚑ Alba Voronezh(9月14日):投产 4,000 罐/分钟产线,投资 120 亿卢布(1.43 亿美元),目标占俄罗斯易拉罐需求的 25%——下游需求,俄罗斯国内。
⚑ AL Circle(9月14日):2026 上半年 LME 铝库存 −31.82%,归因于俄罗斯制裁与中东危机。
⚑ 海合会产量,沿用并获第二来源确认:7月同比 −44%,该地区约占全球产量 10%。
⚑⚑ 下游,沿用至 9月3日,且仍是多方一侧最好的数字:SMM 龙头加工企业开工率七个细分口径全部环比上行——整体 61.0%(+0.8 个百分点);铝箔 71.1%(+0.4);板带 69.4%(+0.2);线缆 64.0%(+1.0);原生合金 59.0%(+1.2);再生铝 51.6%(+1.4);型材 51.1%(+0.5)。
⊘ 该数字现已 12 天之久,本简报每次引用时均声明其时效。
⊘ 氧化铝过剩清单整体沿用,本期没有一项被移除:CERA 过剩 179 万吨;国内计划新增 860 万吨;进口同比 +749.1%;Alunorte 已复产;防城港 240 万吨新线;新增俄铝加里曼丹。
⊘ 现货交投情绪:本简报无法取得 SMM 的出货与采购意愿指数,连续第十五期,因此不发布情绪定性。可观察到的替代事实有二:现货较盘面少跌 40,以及佛山升水停止收窄——两者均指向接货一侧并未恶化,但不足以支撑一个情绪读数(interpretation)。

六 · 电解铝现货市场

⚑ 可发布的区域事实,与本期不可发布的区域事实

⚑ 华东(SMM A00):24,080(24,070–24,090),−160;对主力收盘 升水 45,对结算 升水 75。
⚑ 华南(SMM A00 佛山):24,270(24,250–24,290),−160;佛山减上海 190,与前一交易日完全相同。
⊘ 华中及 CNAL 五口径(上海、长江、中原、南海/佛山、广东南储)本期不可取得,不予推断、不予沿用为「当日」。
⊘ 出货意愿指数与采购意愿指数:连续第十五期不可取得,不发布、不替代。
⚑ 可由本期数据直接推出的两条(derivation):
- 现货在下跌日跑赢盘面 40 点,这在本台账 9月4日以来的七个观测中出现过三次,其余四次现货落后。
- ADC12 减 A00 由 +60 走阔至 +120:原铝跌 160、合金跌 100,再生端的报价黏性强于原生端,连续第二期。
⊘ 本简报不将上述任一条转写为「成交活跃 / 一般 / 清淡」,因为支撑该转写的一手情绪口径不可得。

七 · 关键价格驱动因素

多方因素(19)

⚑⚑ 1. LME backwardation 由 +24.00 翻倍至 +54.00 美元,本台账最宽,且 84.1% 由现货端贡献。
⚑⚑ 2. 上期所曲线由 +25 contango 翻为 −50 backwardation,单日摆动 75 点——两个独立盘面、同一方向、同一交易日。
⚑⚑ 3. 全系持仓仅 −4,490,前端减少的 77.62% 被八个远月吸收——离场判定不成立,移仓判定成立。
⚑ 4. 夜盘五个合约中四个上涨,唯一下跌的是前合约——移仓的第二项独立证据。
⚑⚑ 5. LME 现货 3,311.00(+37.00,+1.13%),一期之内收复 MA10,六条守住五条。
⚑ 6. LME 库存 243,850 吨,序列新低;2026 上半年累计 −31.82%。
⚑⚑ 7. 上期所仓单镜像 205,000 吨(−7,073),可见交易所库存合计降至 448,850 吨。
⚑⚑ 8. 现货跑赢盘面:A00 −160 对收盘 −200、结算 −185;基差由 +5 修复至 +45。
⚑ 9. 佛山减上海升水 190,连续四期收窄后停止。
⚑ 10. ADC12 减 A00 由 +60 走阔至 +120,再生端报价黏性。
⚑⚑ 11. 下游开工率七个口径全部上行,整体 61.0%(9月3日)——但已 12 天。
⚑ 12. 海合会 7月产量同比 −44%,占全球约 10%。
⚑ 13. 中东供应中断未见任何逆转,霍尔木兹会议仍处推迟。
⚑ 14. Brent 108.34 美元抬高电力成本地板(同时见空方第 6 条,同一事实两侧计入)。
⚑ 15. 沙特东西管线仍关闭且无复产日期,能源成本地板的持续性上升。
⚑ 16. Mercuria/Glencore–Venalum 若不成交,则长期闲置产能继续闲置(条件性,低权重)。
⚑ 17. Alba Voronezh 罐厂投产,俄罗斯国内下游需求增量。
⚑ 18. 社会库存自 7月初累计 −334,000 吨(−29.6%),趋势方向仍在去库(但速度减半、且已两期未更新)。
⚑ 19. SMM 三地 9月9日 627,500 吨(−4,500),四个交易日 −13,500,去库在三地口径上仍在延续。

空方因素(29)

⊘⊘ 1. 氧化铝检验干净落在空方:AO2701 收 2,683,低于全部六条均线,主力持仓 +9,198、全系 +11,180,价格在跌、仓位在增——成本支撑一项已移出多头清单。
⊘⊘ 2. 氧化铝 contango 由 +148 走阔至 +153,连续三次收窄后首次扩大。
⊘⊘ 3. 成本口径一 2,718 未达,AO2610 差 63(收盘)/ 52(夜盘);撤销条件未被接近。
⊘⊘ 4. 成本口径二 2,826.21 在整条曲线上仍未被定价,连续第三期。
⊘⊘ 5. FedWatch 由 85.5% 重返 90.7%–92.3%,「重定价已停止」一期即被推翻。
⊘⊘ 6. 美元指数 99.438(+0.32%),站上 99。
⊘⊘ 7. 美债 10 年盘中 5.014%,为 2023年10月以来最高;2 年 4.658%。
⊘⊘ 8. 周三 FOMC 带点阵图,事件风险集中。
⊘ 9. 周一日盘既未创新高、也未创新低,77,582 手只把收盘推高 35 点。
⊘⊘ 10. AL2610 收 24,035,六条均线失守四条。
⊘ 11. 全系成交 322,435,−22.21%;氧化铝全系成交 −37.07%——两个盘面同时缩量。
⊘ 12. AL2610 单合约持仓 −18,724(−8.86%),前合约正在被清空。
⊘ 13. 上海单日跑输伦敦 1.955 个百分点,比价由 7.4023 降至 7.2591。
⊘ 14. 夜盘 AL2610 −15,且最高 24,055 触及 MA20 未能收上。
⊘ 15. 周一 SMM 全国库存连续第二个周一缺席,国内判定已两期陈旧。
⊘ 16. 沿用判定本身即为空:周四对周四 −19,000,仅为前值速度的 52.8%,去库减半。
⊘ 17. 氧化铝夜盘反弹未带仓位(+281 对 +9,198),不予赋权。
⊘ 18. 俄铝加里曼丹铝土矿—氧化铝项目接近最终批准,氧化铝过剩清单再添一项。
⊘ 19. CERA 氧化铝过剩 179 万吨,沿用。
⊘ 20. 国内氧化铝计划新增 860 万吨,沿用。
⊘ 21. 氧化铝进口同比 +749.1%,沿用。
⊘ 22. Alunorte 已复产、防城港 240 万吨新线,沿用。
⊘ 23. Apex Extrusions 逾 40% 销售受关税影响并拒绝迁美,需求毁灭。
⊘ 24. 美加关税争端压迫北美汽车零部件供应链。
⊘ 25. Alcoa 称仅降加拿大关税不足以压低中西部升水——贸易摩擦的价格影响比单一政策更黏。
⊘ 26. Mercuria/Glencore 若重启 Venalum,则为供给增量(条件性)。
⊘ 27. 中国 8月经济数据尚未公布,而 7月基数为全面放缓(工业增加值 +4.5%、社零 +0.6%、固投 −6.7%)。
⊘ 28. 下游开工率数字已 12 天,其时效本身构成对多方第 11 条的折价。
⊘ 29. 利润代理再压缩 172.98 至 18,856.81,且不含能源项,实际利润低于该数。

八 · 一句话观点

本期写于日盘开盘后数分钟,而昨日落地的五项事先写下的检验只有一项给出了定性:氧化铝在「价格下跌、持仓上升」的两个口径上同时触发,成本支撑一项据此移出多头清单;其余四项分别以 20 点(MA20)、510 手(全系持仓)、一个在触发时就注定不产生定性的分支(Brent 站上 108.34)以及两个分跨自设边界的 FedWatch 口径(92.3% / 90.7%,美元指数 99.438 距 99.5 仅 0.062)落空,因此本简报对上海连续第二期不作方向性定性,并明确说明这是本简报的判别带有缺口、而不是市场没有信息——与此同时,真正改变了的三件事是:沿用两期的「离场对移仓」歧义裁为移仓(AL2610 −18,724、AL2609 −1,340,八个远月 +15,574,吸收 77.62%,全系仅 −4,490),伦敦与上海的曲线在同一交易日于前端同时收紧(LME backwardation +24.00 → +54.00,上期所由 +25 contango 翻为 −50 backwardation),以及现货在下跌日跑赢盘面 40 点使基差由 +5 修复至 +45;而与之对冲的是加息概率、美元与实际贴现率三条通道同日同向移动,10 年期美债盘中触及 5.014%,本简报上期「重定价已经停止」的结论一期即被推翻。

九 · 今日日盘与今夜夜盘关注清单(9月15日)

⊘⊘ 本期全部判别带整体重写:覆盖完整数轴、无缺口、不设可拆分协同条件

⚑⚑ 第一,MA20 与 23,920 的重写判别(旧带作废)。 旧带在两期内两次吞掉结果,作废。新判别以收盘价为唯一输入,覆盖完整数轴:≥ 24,055.01 = 均线修复,周五夜盘的破位记为超跌;23,990.01–24,055.00 = 迫近但未收复,记为偏弱而非无结论;23,920.01–23,990.00 = 区间下半部,记为弱势;≤ 23,920.00 = 趋势转折,下一参照 MA40 23,872.88。四档相连、不留缝隙、不设第二条件。参考阶梯:24,356.00(MA5)/ 24,307.00(MA10)/ 24,055.00(MA20)/ 24,042.83(MA30)/ 24,035(9月14日收盘)/ 23,990(夜盘最新)/ 23,920(两日低点)/ 23,872.88(MA40)。
⚑⚑ 第二,全系持仓的重写判别(旧带作废)。 旧的 ±5,000「未决箱」被 510 手击中而失效,作废。新判别以全系持仓单日变动为唯一输入:≤ −8,000 = 离场;−7,999 至 −1 = 减仓但以移仓为主,记为中性偏弱;0 至 +7,999 = 加仓,记为中性偏强;≥ +8,000 = 新资金进场。同时单独记录 AL2611 成交量是否首次超过 AL2610(昨日为 110,102 对 159,575),该项一旦发生即正式移交参照合约。
⚑⚑ 第三,今日 SMM 全国铝锭库存(已连续两个周一缺席,本期承担三次观测的信息量)。 链条 9/7 802,000 → 9/10 796,000。新判别覆盖完整数轴,以周四对周一的口径:≤ 782,000 = 去库重新加速;782,001–790,000 = 维持当前减速节奏;790,001–796,000 = 进一步减速;≥ 796,001 = 累库。同时:Mysteel 同日差值是否仍在 26,000–28,000;三地拆分是否随 9月9日的 627,500 一并补齐;「八大主流市场」672,000 口径能否定源。
⚑⚑ 第四,今日 10:00 中国 8月工业增加值、固投、社零与 70 城房价。 7月基数:工业增加值 +4.5%、社零 +0.6%、固投累计 −6.7%。新判别以社零同比与固投累计两项分别独立评级,不再合并为单一条件:社零 ≥ +1.5% = 偏多;+0.6% 至 +1.49% = 中性偏多;0% 至 +0.59% = 中性偏空;< 0% = 偏空。固投累计 ≥ −6.0% = 偏多;−6.99% 至 −6.01% = 中性;≤ −7.00% = 偏空。两项分别记录,不作净合并。
⚑⚑ 第五,周三 FOMC 与点阵图之前的定价(基准 9月14日 90.7%–92.3%)。 新判别只以 FedWatch 单一输入评级,美元指数单独另评,不再作为协同条件:FedWatch ≥ 95.0% = 对铝进一步偏空;90.0%–94.99% = 已充分定价,中性;80.0%–89.99% = 部分回吐,偏多;< 80.0% = 本轮宏观冲击属过度反应,偏多。若两个口径再次分跨某一档边界,则以两者算术平均落档,不再记为无结论。美元指数单独:≥ 99.80 偏空;99.00–99.79 中性;< 99.00 偏多。
⚑⚑ 第六,氧化铝空头是否继续加仓,以及成本反馈项能否取得日期。 昨日已确立价跌仓增,夜盘反弹仅 +281 手。新判别:AO2701 持仓再增 5,000 以上且收盘低于 2,683 = 空头趋势延续;持仓下降 5,000 以上且收盘高于 2,718 = 挤空启动;其余组合按「持仓方向」单独记录,不留无结论档。并行观察:AO2610 是否连续两日收于 2,718 之上(撤销条件,昨日差 63);全曲线是否出现首个 2,826.21 之上的收盘(昨日最高 AO2708 2,808);以及中国氧化铝厂约 100 元/吨利润与北方减产能否取得日期——一旦有日期即进入多方清单并赋权。
⚑⚑ 第七,伦敦的 backwardation 与库存,以及比价。 昨日 +54.00 为本台账最宽,库存 243,850 创序列新低。新判别:backwardation ≥ +54.00 = 前端偏紧延续,多方;+24.00 至 +53.99 = 回吐但结构未变,中性;< +24.00 = 前端松动,空方。库存沿用 −500 实质门槛(第三次使用):≤ −500 记为实质去库;−499 至 +499 记为噪音;≥ +500 记为实质累库。比价:< 7.2591 则伦敦继续跑赢,对国内盘面偏空、对出口偏多;> 7.4023 则昨日的分化被完全收回。

免责声明

本简报仅供内部晨会参考,不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源包括上海期货交易所公开日度与夜盘数据及其第三方镜像、Westmetall、TradingEconomics、CME FedWatch(经转述)、路透、CNBC、AL Circle、Mysteel、SMM(上海有色网,部分经第三方镜像)、metalsmarket 第三方镜像,以及公开行业报道。凡标注「沿用」者为前期数据,其时效已在文中注明;凡标注 (derivation) 者为本简报据已列数据自行计算;凡标注 (interpretation) 者为本简报的判断而非数据本身。本期明确不可取得的项目已在第一节逐条列出,本简报对不可取得项不作推断、不以代理替代。

1 · Market Performance

Statement of writing time, what is new this edition, and what is not retrievable

Written on the morning of Tuesday September 15 at approximately 09:05 Beijing time, minutes after the SHFE day session opened at 09:00, so there is no usable Tuesday day-session print.
⚑⚑ For the first time in three editions this brief holds two complete data blocks: the entire September 14 trading day (Friday 21:00 night session plus Monday day session) and the September 14 night session, which is the first segment of the September 15 trading day.
⚑⚑ New this edition: the complete SHFE September 14 board across twelve aluminium and eleven alumina contracts, subjected to two integrity checks — (1) the same close series evaluated at September 11 reproduces the prior edition’s six carried moving averages digit for digit; (2) complex open interest evaluated at September 11 reproduces AL 593,718 and AO 462,497, exactly as published last edition; a new Westmetall row at September 14 (cash 3,311.00 / 3-month 3,257.00 / stocks 243,850), ending a two-edition carry; SMM A00, A00 Foshan, ADC12 and A356 at September 14; an SHFE aluminium warrant mirror at 205,000 mt that reconciles exactly against the carried 212,073 mt; SMM three-region daily inventory at September 9, 627,500 mt (−4,500), partly closing a gap open for nine editions; two dated FedWatch calibers at September 14; a September 14 DXY; US 10-year, 2-year and 30-year Treasury levels; two Brent calibers that do not reconcile; and eight industry items dated September 12-14.
⊘ Not retrievable: any Tuesday day-session print; SMM’s Monday national ingot social inventory for a second consecutive Monday (publication falls after this brief’s writing time); SMM’s own primary quotation set, regional transaction premia and the shipment and purchasing sentiment indices, for a fifteenth consecutive edition; the SHFE primary weekly warrant caliber (only the mirror is recovered); Mysteel’s September 14 national caliber; the CNAL five-caliber regional set (server error at writing time), the first break in that set since September 11; the October fed funds strip, for an eighteenth; LME volume and open interest; and China’s August activity data, due at 10:00 Beijing today and not yet published.
⊘⊘ A circulating set showing August industrial production +6.3% and retail sales +10.6% is REJECTED: the gap to the July base of +4.5% and +0.6% is larger than any single month explains, and those figures belong to a different year. They are not listed and are used in no ruling (derivation).

⊘⊘ Five tests landed in one session and only one ruled — and the fault is in the bands

⊘⊘ Test one (MA20): the September 14 close was 24,035, 20.00 points below its own 24,055.00 line and 115.00 above the 23,920 line, inside the no-conclusion band at 85.19% of its 135.00-point width — swallowed by its own band for a second consecutive edition.
⊘⊘ Test two (open interest): complex open interest −4,490, 510 lots inside the self-imposed ±5,000 box — undecided.
⊘⊘ Test three (Brent): USD 108.34 (+3.56%) took the 108.00 line, and the pre-written consequence of taking it was itself “two-sided with no net qualification” — a test designed to produce nothing even when it fires.
⊘⊘ Test four (FedWatch / dollar): 92.3% and 90.7%, two dated calibers straddling the 92% edge of this brief’s own band; DXY 99.438, 0.062 short of the 99.5 co-condition.
⚑⚑ Test five (alumina): the only clean resolution, and it resolved bearish (section 5).
⊘⊘ This edition records a method defect: four no-rulings out of five is not the market withholding information, it is a band set with gaps, with an edge two calibers can straddle, and with a co-condition that can split. Every band is rewritten in full in section 9, to the standard: cover the whole number line, leave no gap, and admit no splittable co-condition (derivation).

⚑⚑ The complete SHFE September 14 board, with the six averages verified by back-computation

⚑⚑ AL2610, September 14 trading day: open 24,100 / high 24,100 / low 23,920 / close 24,035 / settlement 24,005. Close-to-close −200 (−0.825%); settlement-to-settlement −185 (−0.765%). Volume 159,575 (−25.4% against Friday’s 213,873); open interest 192,666 (−18,724, −8.86%).
⚑⚑ AL2611: open 24,030 / high 24,095 / low 23,920 / close 24,020 / settlement 24,000; close-to-close −220 (−0.908%); volume 110,102; open interest 211,471 (+3,624).
⚑⚑ Complex (twelve contracts, AL2609-AL2708): open interest 589,228 (−4,490, −0.76%) on volume 322,435 (−22.21%).
⚑⚑ The six AL2610 averages, recomputed live off a 225-row close series at the September 14 close: MA5 24,356.00 / MA10 24,307.00 / MA20 24,055.00 / MA30 24,042.83 / MA40 23,872.88 / MA60 23,597.67.
⚑ Integrity check, passed: the same series at the September 11 close reproduces 24,433.00 / 24,311.00 / 24,055.00 / 24,029.83 / 23,847.25 / 23,601.25, digit for digit against the carried figures, so the series is verified rather than asserted (derivation).
⊘⊘ Against the 24,035 close: below MA5 by 321.00, MA10 by 272.00, MA20 by 20.00 and MA30 by 7.83; above MA40 by 162.12 and MA60 by 437.33. Four of six lost — but MA20 by twenty points and MA30 by under eight, the narrowest two-average failure on this ledger.
⚑⚑ AL2611’s own six (202-row series): MA5 24,350.00 / MA10 24,298.50 / MA20 24,048.50 / MA30 24,029.67 / MA40 23,856.88 / MA60 23,594.50; against its 24,020 close, −330.00 / −278.50 / −28.50 / −9.67 / +163.12 / +425.50 — the same shape on an independent contract.

⚑⚑ The Monday day session made neither a new high nor a new low

⚑⚑ The September 14 trading day’s high of 24,100 and low of 23,920 were both printed in the Friday night session, before 09:00.
⚑⚑ The day session’s own volume was 77,582 lots (= 159,575 total − 81,993 night), 48.6% of the trading day, and it produced no new high and no new low, moving only the close, by 35 points from the night’s 24,000 to 24,035 (derivation).
⊘ A session that adds turnover and extends the range in neither direction is a session in which nobody was willing to press (interpretation). This brief therefore makes no directional qualification, and states plainly that its own instrument said nothing — the market did not.

⚑⚑ The September 14 night session: four up, one down, and the loser is the front contract

⚑⚑ AL2610 (night, part of the September 15 trading day): open 23,995 / high 24,055 / low 23,950 / last 23,990, −15 (−0.062%) against the 24,005 settlement; volume 59,774; open interest 180,208 (a further −12,458).
⚑ AL2611 24,005 (+5), OI 218,533 (+7,062); AL2612 24,000 (+15); AL2701 23,965 (+10); AL2702 23,960 (+10).
⚑ Four of five up and the only loser is the front contract — which is what a roll looks like, and it is the second independent piece of evidence for the roll ruling (derivation).
⊘ Against the live averages the night last of 23,990 sits below MA5 by 366.00, MA10 by 317.00, MA20 by 65.00 and MA30 by 52.83; above MA40 by 117.12 and MA60 by 392.33. The night high of 24,055 touched MA20 exactly and did not close there.
⚑⚑ Curve flip: AL2708 23,985 minus AL2610 24,035 = −50, from +25 contango at the September 11 close — a 75-point swing into backwardation in one session.

⚑⚑ The main contract has switched on open interest without switching on volume

⚑⚑ Open interest: AL2611 211,471 against AL2610 192,666, a gap of 18,805, widening in the night to 218,533 against 180,208, or 38,325.
⚑⚑ Volume: AL2610’s 159,575 still leads AL2611’s 110,102 in the day, and 59,774 against 37,548 in the night.
⊘ Position has moved; trade has not. This brief continues to quote AL2610 as the reference contract and publishes AL2611 alongside it in full until volume follows (derivation).

⚑⚑ London: a new row, and it is the bullish side of the page

⚑⚑ Westmetall, September 14: cash settlement USD 3,311.00 (+37.00, +1.13%); 3-month USD 3,257.00 (+7.00, +0.22%); stocks 243,850 mt (−250).
⚑⚑ The backwardation more than doubled, +24.00 to +54.00, the widest on this ledger; the cash leg supplied 37.00 and the 3-month 7.00, so 84.1% of the widening is a front-end bid rather than a back-end offer (derivation). Chain: −0.50 → +2.00 → +6.00 → +14.00 → +25.00 → +24.00 → +54.00.
⚑⚑ The six LME averages, recomputed live off a 65-row cash series to September 14: MA5 3,321.00 / MA10 3,302.70 / MA20 3,259.20 / MA30 3,267.32 / MA40 3,247.96 / MA60 3,216.46.
⚑ Integrity check, passed: the same series at September 11 reproduces 3,320.80 / 3,293.80 / 3,256.05 / 3,263.48 / 3,244.04 / 3,217.94, digit for digit against the carried figures.
⚑ Against 3,311.00: below MA5 by only 10.00; above MA10 by 8.30, MA20 by 51.80, MA30 by 43.68, MA40 by 63.04 and MA60 by 94.54. Cash has reclaimed MA10 one session after losing it and now holds five of six — the mirror image of Shanghai, which holds two of six.
⊘ The non-monotone stack persists for a seventh edition: MA30 sits USD 8.12 above MA20.
⚑ Stocks 243,850 mt is a new series low; the −250 change is below the −500 substance threshold written down on September 11 and is classified as noise for a second consecutive row. Cumulative from the June 1 row of 337,700: −93,850, −27.79%. Parallel: AL Circle reports H1 2026 LME aluminium stocks −31.82%.
⚑ Parallel price caliber: TradingEconomics reads USD 3,250.00 at September 14, −0.20% d/d, −0.29% m/m, +20.21% y/y — a USD 7.00 gap to the Westmetall 3-month and USD 61.00 to cash, consistent with a 3-month reference and not a data conflict.
⚑ Ratio: 24,035 / 3,311.00 = 7.2591 (7.4023 at September 11); against the 3-month, 7.3792. London out-performed Shanghai by 1.955 percentage points in one session.

⚑ Spot beat the board — the cleanest bullish datum of the session

⚑⚑ SMM A00, September 14: 24,080 (range 24,070-24,090), −160.
⚑⚑ The board’s close fell 200 and its settlement fell 185 — spot outperformed the close by 40 and the settlement by 25, on a down day (derivation).
⚑ SMM A00 Foshan: 24,270 (range 24,250-24,290), −160; Foshan minus Shanghai = 190, identical to September 11’s 190 — the South China premium stopped narrowing after four consecutive sessions of compression.
⚑ Basis: +45 against the AL2610 close of 24,035; +75 against the 24,005 settlement; +60 against the AL2611 close of 24,020.
Chain against the close: +70 (9/4) → +55 (9/7) → −20 (9/8) → −20/0 (9/9) → +70 (9/10) → +5 (9/11) → +45 (9/14).
⊘ Against the night, the same stale quotation implies +90 on AL2610 and +75 on AL2611, and this brief does not publish those as a basis: the spot side is a Monday print and the board has traded since (interpretation).
⚑ ADC12 24,200 (range 24,100-24,300), −100. Chain: 24,450 → 24,300 → 24,200. ADC12 minus A00 = +120, from +60 — primary fell faster, so the alloy’s discount to primary narrowed for a second consecutive session.
⚑ A356 24,300 (range 24,100-24,500), −200.
⊘ Caliber note: this brief has carried A356.2 at 24,400; 24,400 − 200 = 24,200, not 24,300, so A356 and A356.2 are different calibers and are not reconciled here.
⊘ The six-caliber ADC12 spread is carried un-retested: Nanhai/Dali transactions 24,650-24,850 (undated); SMM 23,950; Changjiang spot alloy 24,000; Changjiang East China composite 23,615; Foshan mainstream 23,500-23,800.
⊘ The CNAL five-caliber regional set returned a server error at writing time and is not published this edition, the first break in that set since September 11.
⊘ SMM’s own primary quotation set, regional transaction premia, shipment and purchasing sentiment indices, alumina index and Chalco’s five listings remain login-walled for a fifteenth consecutive edition, so this brief publishes no sentiment index and substitutes no proxy for one.

⚑⚑ Alumina: the only test that ruled, and it ruled bearish

⊘⊘ AO2701, September 14 day: open 2,696 / high 2,697 / low 2,670 / close 2,683 / settlement 2,682; close-to-close −14 (−0.52%), settlement −49 (−1.79%); volume 175,441 (−36.2%); open interest 229,264 (+9,198, +4.18%).
⊘⊘ Complex (eleven contracts, AO2609-AO2708): open interest 473,677 (+11,180, +2.42%) on volume 249,840 (−37.07%).
⚑⚑ The pre-written text was: “open interest rising while price falls establishes the short trend and moves the cost-support item off the bullish list entirely.” Both legs fired, on both calibers. The item is moved.
⊘⊘ AO2610: open 2,662 / high 2,673 / low 2,648 / close 2,655 / settlement 2,658; −12 close-to-close; open interest 44,918 (−3,238) — the front is being vacated while AO2701 is being sold.
⚑⚑ The six AO2701 averages (161-row series, at the September 14 close): MA5 2,739.00 / MA10 2,748.50 / MA20 2,733.50 / MA30 2,738.23 / MA40 2,745.95 / MA60 2,776.18.
⊘⊘ 2,683 is below all six by 56.00 / 65.50 / 50.50 / 55.23 / 62.95 / 93.18 — a second consecutive close below every average.
⚑ AO2610’s own six (225-row series): MA5 2,698.80 / MA10 2,711.20 / MA20 2,688.75 / MA30 2,689.67 / MA40 2,692.55 / MA60 2,716.67; 2,655 is below all six as well.
⚑ Night session, the first up move in three, five of five up: AO2701 2,696 (+14, +0.52%), volume 58,818, open interest 229,545 (+281 only); AO2610 2,666 (+8); AO2611 2,680 (+12); AO2612 2,691 (+13); AO2702 2,714 (+13).
⊘ But the bounce carried no position with it (+281 against +9,198 on the fall), which is the definition of a move this brief does not weight (interpretation). 2,696 remains below all six averages by 37.50 / 52.50 / 43.00 / 42.23 / 49.95 / 80.18.
⊘⊘ Cost caliber one (2,718): AO2610 closed 2,655, a 63-point miss; the night 2,666 misses by 52. The pre-written withdrawal condition — two consecutive AO2610 closes above 2,718 — was not approached.
⊘⊘ Cost caliber two (2,826.21): unpriced across the entire curve for a third edition; the highest close anywhere is AO2708 at 2,808, still 18.21 short.
⊘ Curve: AO2708 2,808 minus AO2610 2,655 = +153 contango, wider than September 11’s +148 and the first widening after three narrowings (+184 → +175 → +148 → +153).
⚑⊘ The cost-feedback item is carried, still undated and still unweighted: Chinese refinery average margin compressed to approximately CNY 100/t, some refineries loss-making, several northern plants cutting. Against the 2,683 close, CNY 100 is a 3.73% margin.

⊘⊘ Margin proxy: the compression continued, and its upper-bound character is stronger this edition

⊘ Main pair (AL2610/AO2701, 1.93 t/t): 24,035 − 1.93 × 2,683 = 18,856.81, against 19,029.79 at the September 11 close — a further 172.98 of compression, and −545.70 across three sessions.
⚑ Method verification: the prior edition’s forward estimate for the Monday night board was 18,841.11; the realised day-session figure is 18,856.81, an overshoot of 15.70 — the inputs moved and the method held (derivation).
⊘ Night pair: 23,990 − 1.93 × 2,696 = 18,786.72, a further −70.09 — alumina’s night bounce cost the smelter more than aluminium’s night fall did.
⚑ Same-month pair (AL2610/AO2610): 24,035 − 1.93 × 2,655 = 18,910.85.
⊘⊘ And the proxy still carries no energy term. With Brent settling 108.34 on the same day, a shut Saudi pipeline and no restart date, 18,856.81 is an upper bound on margin and not an estimate of it (interpretation).

3 · Inventory

⊘ The Monday print is missing again, but two other gaps closed

⊘ SMM national ingot social inventory carried at 796,000 mt (September 10) for a second consecutive Monday.
Full chain: Aug 24 860,000 → Aug 27 852,000 → Aug 31 837,000 → Sept 3 815,000 → Sept 7 802,000 → Sept 10 796,000.
⊘ Carried ruling, now two editions old: Thursday-to-Thursday −19,000, 52.8% of the prior 36,000 pace and 79.4% of August’s own ~23,935; Monday-to-Thursday only −6,000. The destock halved, it did not stop. Cumulative from the early-July peak of ~1.13 million mt: −334,000 (−29.6%).
⚑⚑ The three-region gap is partly closed after nine editions: SMM three-region daily inventory at September 9 is 627,500 mt (−4,500), against the carried September 3 figure of 641,000 mt (−10,500) — −13,500 mt across four trading days, a pace of −3,375/day. The regional split behind the September 9 total is not retrieved, so this closes the level gap and not the composition gap.
⚑⚑ The SHFE warrant mirror now reconciles: 205,000 mt at September 14 on a stated −7,073; 212,073 − 7,073 = 205,000 exactly, so the flag raised one edition ago about an unreconcilable mirror is retired (derivation). It remains explicitly not the SHFE primary weekly warrant caliber, which is missing for a second edition.
⚑⚑ Combined visible exchange stocks: 205,000 + 243,850 = 448,850 mt, from 456,173 — −7,323 (−1.61%), of which Shanghai supplied 96.6%. Shanghai is 84.07% of London, from 86.88%.
⚑ LME 243,850 mt (−250), new series low, change classified as noise.
⊘ Mysteel’s September 14 national caliber is not retrieved; the constant-offset conclusion (28,000 / 26,000 / 28,000 / 28,000 across four dates) is carried untested.
⊘ A third caliber, listed and unweighted: an “eight major markets” total of 672,000 mt at September 8, −11,000 w/w and −73,000 y/y, roughly 130,000 mt below the SMM national caliber on an adjacent date. Not reconciled, not used in any ruling, recorded so a future edition can date it to a primary source or drop it.
⊘⊘ Inventory’s effect on price (interpretation): the domestic level is two editions stale, so the domestic ruling is two editions stale as well. What is current is exchange stock — it fell on both boards while both curves went into backwardation, a consistent but narrow tightness signal at the deliverable margin that says nothing about the 796,000 mt sitting in social warehouses.

4 · Macro Factors

⊘⊘ Three bearish channels moved together, and one of this brief’s conclusions is superseded after a single edition

⊘⊘ FedWatch for the September 16 meeting, two dated calibers at September 14: 92.3% and 90.7%, both for a 25 bp hike. Against 85.5% at September 12 and 85.6% at September 11.
⊘⊘ Self-correction: the prior edition wrote “the repricing has stopped” on the basis of two flat readings. It had not stopped — it resumed within one session and moved 5.2 to 6.8 points. That sentence is superseded and recorded as an error of inference from a two-point series (derivation).
⊘ DXY 99.438 (+0.32%) at September 14, from the 99.132 carried last edition — above 99, and 0.062 below the 99.5 co-condition in this brief’s own band.
⊘⊘ US Treasuries: the 10-year touched 5.014% intraday, its highest since October 2023, and was last 4.987%; the 2-year 4.658%, its highest since July 2024; the 30-year remains at the highs of this cycle.
⊘⊘ A 10-year with a 5 handle four days before an FOMC that carries a dot plot is the single largest discount-rate move on this page (interpretation).
⊘⊘ Brent, two calibers, not reconciled: caliber one USD 108.34 at September 14, +3.56%, which clears the 108.00 line this brief pre-wrote and is the highest on this ledger; caliber two TradingEconomics at USD 106.873 on September 15, +1.19 (+1.13%) d/d, +17.61% m/m, +56.09% y/y, implying a ~105.68 prior that cannot be squared with a 108.34 settlement. The ruling is taken on caliber one, because that is the caliber the test was written against.
⊘ Cause unchanged, and now with no restart date: Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pipeline remains shut after the drone strikes launched from Iraqi territory, on a stated 7 million bpd capacity caliber; the Iran-GCC Hormuz meeting remains postponed.
⊘ China’s August industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales and 70-city house prices are due at 10:00 Beijing today and are not yet published. July baseline carried: industrial production +4.5% y/y, retail sales +0.6% y/y, fixed asset investment approximately −6.7% year-to-date, described at the time as a broad-based slowdown that missed forecasts.
⊘⊘ A circulating set showing August industrial production +6.3% and retail sales +10.6% is rejected, for the reason given in section 1.
⊘⊘ Macro qualification (interpretation): a rising hike probability, a rising dollar and a rising real discount rate are three independent bearish channels pointing the same way. The rebuttal that has protected Shanghai through the last three of these — that the dollar was moving through a yen channel rather than a Fed one — is materially weaker at 99.4 than it was at 98.7.

5 · Fundamentals

⚑ Supply, trade and demand: eight dated items, and the one that moved is tariffs

⚑ Alcoa (September 14): a cut to Canadian tariffs alone will not bring the US Midwest premium down — a direct statement from the largest US-listed producer, and it cuts against the assumption that tariff relief mechanically deflates regional premia.
⚑ Apex Aluminum Extrusions (September 14): has rejected relocating production to the US, with over 40% of its sales already affected by tariff increases — a demand-destruction datum, not a supply one.
⚑ US-Canada tariff dispute (September 14): North American auto-parts supply chains reported under pressure.
⚑ Rusal (September 14): nearing final approval for a bauxite-to-alumina project in Kalimantan, Indonesia — an addition to the alumina surplus list, not a subtraction, and the second Indonesian item on this ledger after the Chinese smelter investment flows reported September 9.
⚑ Mercuria and Glencore (September 14): exploring a deal over Venezuela’s Venalum smelter, a potential restart of long-idle capacity.
⚑ Alba Voronezh (September 14): launched a 4,000-cans-per-minute plant, RUB 12 billion (USD 143 million), targeting 25% of Russian aluminium can demand — downstream demand, Russian-domestic.
⚑ AL Circle (September 14): H1 2026 LME aluminium stocks −31.82%, attributed to Russian sanctions and the Middle East crisis.
⚑ GCC output, carried and confirmed by a second source: −44% year-on-year in July, on a region representing approximately 10% of global output.
⚑⚑ Downstream, carried at September 3, and still the best number on the bullish side: SMM leading-processor operating rates, seven of seven segments up week-on-week — overall 61.0% (+0.8 pp); foil 71.1% (+0.4); plate, sheet and strip 69.4% (+0.2); wire and cable 64.0% (+1.0); primary alloy 59.0% (+1.2); secondary 51.6% (+1.4); extrusion 51.1% (+0.5).
⊘ That figure is now twelve days old, and its age is stated every time it is used.
⊘ The alumina surplus list is carried whole and nothing came off it: CERA surplus 1.79 Mt; domestic planned additions 8.6 Mt; imports +749.1% y/y; Alunorte restarted; Fangchenggang 2.4 Mt new line; and now Rusal Kalimantan.
⊘ Spot transaction sentiment: this brief cannot retrieve SMM’s shipment and purchasing sentiment indices for a fifteenth consecutive edition and therefore publishes no sentiment qualification. Two observable substitutes exist: spot fell 40 less than the board, and the Foshan premium stopped narrowing — both point to a take-up side that did not deteriorate, and neither is sufficient to support a sentiment reading (interpretation).

6 · Primary Aluminum Spot Market

⚑ The regional facts that can be published, and the ones that cannot be published this edition

⚑ East China (SMM A00): 24,080 (24,070-24,090), −160; +45 premium to the main contract’s close, +75 to its settlement.
⚑ South China (SMM A00 Foshan): 24,270 (24,250-24,290), −160; Foshan minus Shanghai 190, identical to the prior trading day.
⊘ Central China and the CNAL five-caliber set (Shanghai, Changjiang, Zhongyuan, Nanhai/Foshan, Guangdong Nanchu) are not retrievable this edition, and are neither inferred nor carried forward as “current”.
⊘ Shipment sentiment index and purchasing sentiment index: not retrievable for a fifteenth consecutive edition; not published, not substituted.
⚑ Two things this edition’s own data does support (derivation):
- Spot beat the board by 40 points on a down day — which has happened in three of the seven observations on this ledger since September 4; in the other four spot lagged.
- ADC12 minus A00 widened from +60 to +120: primary fell 160 and the alloy 100, so the secondary side’s quotation is stickier than the primary side’s, for a second consecutive edition.
⊘ This brief does not translate either of those into “active / average / wait-and-see”, because the primary sentiment caliber that would support the translation is unavailable.

7 · Key Price Drivers

Bullish factors (19)

⚑⚑ 1. The LME backwardation more than doubled, +24.00 to +54.00, the widest on this ledger, with 84.1% supplied by the cash leg.
⚑⚑ 2. The SHFE curve flipped from +25 contango to −50 backwardation, a 75-point swing — two independent boards, one direction, one session.
⚑⚑ 3. Complex open interest fell only 4,490, with 77.62% of the front-pair decline absorbed by the eight deferred months — the exit ruling does not hold; the roll ruling does.
⚑ 4. Four of five night contracts up, with the front contract the only loser — the second independent piece of evidence for the roll.
⚑⚑ 5. LME cash 3,311.00 (+37.00, +1.13%), reclaiming MA10 in one session and holding five of six.
⚑ 6. LME stocks 243,850 mt, a new series low; H1 2026 −31.82%.
⚑⚑ 7. SHFE warrant mirror 205,000 mt (−7,073), taking combined visible exchange stocks to 448,850 mt.
⚑⚑ 8. Spot beat the board: A00 −160 against a close −200 and a settlement −185; basis repaired from +5 to +45.
⚑ 9. Foshan minus Shanghai held at 190, ending four consecutive sessions of compression.
⚑ 10. ADC12 minus A00 widened from +60 to +120, secondary-side quotation stickiness.
⚑⚑ 11. Downstream operating rates, seven of seven segments up, overall 61.0% (September 3) — but twelve days old.
⚑ 12. GCC output −44% y/y in July, on ~10% of global supply.
⚑ 13. No reversal in any Middle East supply disruption; the Hormuz meeting remains postponed.
⚑ 14. Brent at USD 108.34 raises the smelter power-cost floor (also counted on the bearish side at item 6 — the same fact, both sides).
⚑ 15. The Saudi East-West pipeline remains shut with no restart date, making the energy-cost floor durable rather than episodic.
⚑ 16. If the Mercuria/Glencore-Venalum talks fail, long-idle capacity stays idle (conditional, low weight).
⚑ 17. Alba Voronezh can plant launched, incremental Russian-domestic downstream demand.
⚑ 18. Social inventory −334,000 mt (−29.6%) from the early-July peak — the direction is still destocking (at half the pace, and two editions un-updated).
⚑ 19. SMM three-region 627,500 mt at September 9 (−4,500), −13,500 across four trading days — destocking continues on the regional caliber.

Bearish factors (29)

⊘⊘ 1. The alumina test resolved cleanly bearish: AO2701 closed 2,683 below all six averages, main open interest +9,198 and complex +11,180 — price falling, position rising — so the cost-support item has left the bullish list.
⊘⊘ 2. The alumina contango widened from +148 to +153, the first widening after three narrowings.
⊘⊘ 3. Cost caliber one (2,718) unmet, AO2610 short by 63 at the close and 52 in the night; the withdrawal condition was not approached.
⊘⊘ 4. Cost caliber two (2,826.21) remains unpriced across the entire curve, a third edition.
⊘⊘ 5. FedWatch back from 85.5% to 90.7%-92.3%, overturning “the repricing has stopped” in one edition.
⊘⊘ 6. DXY 99.438 (+0.32%), above 99.
⊘⊘ 7. The US 10-year touched 5.014% intraday, its highest since October 2023; the 2-year 4.658%.
⊘⊘ 8. Wednesday’s FOMC carries a dot plot — concentrated event risk.
⊘ 9. The Monday day session made neither a new high nor a new low, moving the close 35 points on 77,582 lots.
⊘⊘ 10. AL2610 closed 24,035, with four of six averages lost.
⊘ 11. Complex volume 322,435, −22.21%, and the alumina complex −37.07% — both boards contracted at once.
⊘ 12. AL2610 single-contract open interest −18,724 (−8.86%), the front contract being vacated.
⊘ 13. Shanghai underperformed London by 1.955 percentage points, with the ratio falling 7.4023 → 7.2591.
⊘ 14. AL2610 fell 15 in the night, and its 24,055 high touched MA20 without closing above it.
⊘ 15. Monday’s SMM national inventory missing for a second consecutive Monday, leaving the domestic ruling two editions stale.
⊘ 16. The carried ruling is itself bearish: Thursday-to-Thursday −19,000, 52.8% of the prior pace — the destock halved.
⊘ 17. Alumina’s night bounce carried no position (+281 against +9,198) and is not weighted.
⊘ 18. Rusal’s Kalimantan bauxite-to-alumina project nears final approval, adding to the alumina surplus list.
⊘ 19. CERA alumina surplus 1.79 Mt, carried.
⊘ 20. Domestic planned alumina additions 8.6 Mt, carried.
⊘ 21. Alumina imports +749.1% y/y, carried.
⊘ 22. Alunorte restarted; Fangchenggang 2.4 Mt new line, carried.
⊘ 23. Apex Extrusions, over 40% of sales tariff-affected, rejecting US relocation — demand destruction.
⊘ 24. The US-Canada tariff dispute pressuring North American auto-parts supply chains.
⊘ 25. Alcoa says a Canadian tariff cut alone will not lower the Midwest premium — trade-friction pricing is stickier than any single policy lever.
⊘ 26. If Mercuria/Glencore restart Venalum, that is incremental supply (conditional).
⊘ 27. China’s August activity data is unpublished, against a July base that was a broad-based slowdown (IP +4.5%, retail +0.6%, FAI −6.7%).
⊘ 28. The downstream operating-rate figure is twelve days old, and its age is itself a discount on bullish item 11.
⊘ 29. The margin proxy compressed a further 172.98 to 18,856.81, and carries no energy term, so realised margin is below that number.

8 · One-Sentence Market View

Written minutes after the day-session open, with five pre-written tests landed and only one of them producing a ruling — alumina, which fired on both legs and on both calibers and so removes the cost-support item from this brief’s own bullish list, while the other four missed by 20 points (MA20), by 510 lots (complex open interest), into a branch that was designed to produce nothing even when it fired (Brent taking 108 at 108.34), and across a band edge two FedWatch calibers straddled at 92.3% and 90.7% with the dollar index stopping 0.062 short of 99.5 — this brief makes no directional qualification on Shanghai for a second consecutive edition and states plainly that the fault is its own band design, not a market that withheld information; what genuinely changed is threefold: the two-edition exit-versus-roll ambiguity is settled as a roll (AL2610 −18,724 and AL2609 −1,340 against +15,574 across the eight deferred months, 77.62% absorbed, the complex down only 4,490), London and Shanghai tightened at the front on the same day (LME backwardation +24.00 → +54.00, the SHFE curve flipping from +25 contango to −50 backwardation), and spot beat the board by 40 points on a down day to repair the basis from +5 to +45 — set against a macro page on which the hike probability, the dollar and the real discount rate all moved the same way at once, with the US 10-year touching 5.014%, and on which this brief’s own “the repricing has stopped” was overturned within a single edition.

9 · Watchlist for Today’s Day Session and Tonight’s Night Session (September 15)

⊘⊘ Every band is rewritten this edition: whole number line, no gaps, no splittable co-conditions

⚑⚑ First, MA20 and 23,920, rewritten (the old band is void). The old band swallowed the outcome twice in two editions and is void. The new judgement takes the close as its only input and covers the whole number line: ≥ 24,055.01 = average repair, and Friday night’s break is recorded as oversold; 23,990.01-24,055.00 = approached but not reclaimed, recorded as weak rather than as no conclusion; 23,920.01-23,990.00 = lower half of the range, recorded as soft; ≤ 23,920.00 = trend reversal, with MA40 at 23,872.88 the next reference. Four contiguous bands, no gap, no second condition. Ladder: 24,356.00 (MA5) / 24,307.00 (MA10) / 24,055.00 (MA20) / 24,042.83 (MA30) / 24,035 (Sept 14 close) / 23,990 (night last) / 23,920 (two-day low) / 23,872.88 (MA40).
⚑⚑ Second, complex open interest, rewritten (the old band is void). The old ±5,000 “undecided box” was hit by 510 lots and has failed; it is void. The new judgement takes the single-session change in complex open interest as its only input: ≤ −8,000 = exit; −7,999 to −1 = position reduced but predominantly rolled, recorded as neutral-to-soft; 0 to +7,999 = position added, recorded as neutral-to-firm; ≥ +8,000 = new money entering. Recorded separately: whether AL2611’s volume exceeds AL2610’s for the first time (yesterday 110,102 against 159,575) — the day that happens, the reference contract is formally handed over.
⚑⚑ Third, today’s SMM national ingot inventory, missing two Mondays running and now carrying three observations of information. Chain 9/7 802,000 → 9/10 796,000. New judgement, whole number line, on a Thursday-to-Monday basis: ≤ 782,000 = destocking re-accelerates; 782,001-790,000 = the current decelerated pace holds; 790,001-796,000 = further deceleration; ≥ 796,001 = build. Also watch: whether the Mysteel same-day gap stays inside 26,000-28,000; whether the three-region split arrives alongside the September 9 level of 627,500; and whether the “eight major markets” 672,000 caliber can be sourced.
⚑⚑ Fourth, China’s August industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales and 70-city house prices at 10:00 today. July base: IP +4.5%, retail +0.6%, FAI −6.7% year-to-date. The new judgement grades retail sales and fixed asset investment separately and independently, and no longer combines them into a single condition: retail ≥ +1.5% = bullish; +0.6% to +1.49% = neutral-to-bullish; 0% to +0.59% = neutral-to-bearish; < 0% = bearish. FAI year-to-date ≥ −6.0% = bullish; −6.99% to −6.01% = neutral; ≤ −7.00% = bearish. Both are recorded; they are not netted.
⚑⚑ Fifth, the pricing into Wednesday’s FOMC and dot plot, baseline 90.7%-92.3% at September 14. The new judgement grades on FedWatch alone, and the dollar index is graded separately rather than as a co-condition: FedWatch ≥ 95.0% = further bearish for aluminium; 90.0%-94.99% = fully priced, neutral; 80.0%-89.99% = partial giveback, bullish; < 80.0% = the macro shock was an overreaction, bullish. If two calibers again straddle a boundary, the arithmetic mean of the two decides the band — it is no longer recorded as no conclusion. DXY separately: ≥ 99.80 bearish; 99.00-99.79 neutral; < 99.00 bullish.
⚑⚑ Sixth, whether alumina’s shorts keep adding, and whether the cost-feedback item can be dated. Yesterday established price down, position up; the night bounce carried only +281 lots. New judgement: AO2701 open interest up a further 5,000 or more with a close below 2,683 = the short trend continues; open interest down 5,000 or more with a close above 2,718 = a squeeze has started; every other combination is recorded by the direction of open interest alone, with no no-conclusion band left open. In parallel: whether AO2610 closes above 2,718 on two consecutive days (the withdrawal condition, missed by 63 yesterday); whether any close anywhere on the curve clears 2,826.21 (yesterday’s highest was AO2708 at 2,808); and whether the CNY 100/t refinery margin and the northern cuts can be dated — the moment they carry a date they enter the bullish list and are weighted.
⚑⚑ Seventh, London’s backwardation and stocks, and the ratio. Yesterday’s +54.00 is the widest on this ledger and stocks at 243,850 are a series low. New judgement: backwardation ≥ +54.00 = front-end tightness continues, bullish; +24.00 to +53.99 = giveback without a structural change, neutral; < +24.00 = the front end has loosened, bearish. Stocks keep the −500 substance threshold (its third use): ≤ −500 is a substantive draw; −499 to +499 is noise; ≥ +500 is a substantive build. Ratio: below 7.2591 means London keeps out-performing, bearish for the domestic board and bullish for exports; above 7.4023 means yesterday’s divergence has been fully retraced.

Disclaimer

This brief is for internal morning-meeting reference only and is not investment advice. Sources include SHFE public day and night session data and third-party mirrors thereof, Westmetall, TradingEconomics, CME FedWatch (as reported), Reuters, CNBC, AL Circle, Mysteel, SMM (Shanghai Metals Market, partly via third-party mirrors), a metalsmarket third-party mirror, and public industry reporting. Anything marked “carried” is prior-period data whose age is stated in the text; anything marked (derivation) is computed by this brief from the figures listed; anything marked (interpretation) is this brief’s judgement rather than the data itself. Items that could not be retrieved are enumerated individually in section 1, and this brief makes no inference about an unavailable item and substitutes no proxy for one.